2.35 Chester – Deepbridge Huxley Stakes: Blog Preview
This looks a fascinating Huxley, but the starting point has to be Lambourn. He is Rank 1 on the HRB TimeWise Master figures and, given your top-two bias, that matters a great deal. Rank 1 historically produces the best strike-rate and in a non-handicap pattern race like this I do not want to get too clever by straying too far from the head of the ratings.
Lambourn’s profile is the class act in the field. Last season he won the Chester Vase, Derby and Irish Derby, and that is simply the standout form. His draw in stall 2 should help around Chester, and Aidan O’Brien has a strong recent record in this race. Past winners also suggest a useful trend: this contest has often gone to classy 4yo/5yo horses near the head of the market, so he fits the historical shape well.
The concern is the setup. Timeform suggests a strong pace, which may slightly blunt Lambourn’s edge at this shorter trip, while Comment Shaper sees a more moderate scenario with no obvious front-runner but enough prominent racers to ensure a fair test. Either way, it does not look like a soft tactical lead for anyone. That opens the door to Sky Safari, who is Rank 2 and the only serious alternative on your methodology. She is a strong late finisher and the pace angle suits, but all her best recent form has come on the all-weather and this is a much deeper turf Group 2.
King’s Gambit and Royal Rhyme both have solid each-way claims, especially with their late strength, but neither should really dislodge the top two from the main argument. There are no notable trainer changes, while Lambourn has a first-time piece of ‘s’ equipment listed and Royal Rhyme wears a tongue-tie.
Verdict: Lambourn
Main danger: Sky Safari
Self-critique and reassessment:
The biggest negative for Lambourn is the drop back in trip on seasonal return, plus the pace note from Timeform. If the race becomes strongly run, Sky Safari could be the one finishing best. Even so, Lambourn’s raw class, Chester form and Rank 1 status keep him on top.
Selection strength: Medium