3.25 Ascot – Only Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap (6f)

This looks a strong Class 3 sprint with several arriving well treated, but the race shape and HRB profile point quite firmly towards the top of the market leaders rather than a complete outsider. Historical TimeWise data for 11-runner 4yo+ handicaps shows Rank 1 dominates, producing the best strike-rate by a clear margin, so Elements Of Fire immediately commands respect.

Archie Watson’s 4yo has a huge TimeWise total of 397.6, miles clear of the field, and arrives on a sequence of progressive all-weather wins. The key question is whether dropping to a sharp Ascot 6f after racing over 7f will catch him out, but Comment Shaper suggests a strongly-run race with genuine pace pressure, which may actually suit. He is one of only two identified front runners yet also carries “strong finisher” notes, implying he is not merely a tearaway speed horse. Hollie Doyle is an excellent booking in these straight-course sprints and stall 4 looks workable.

The obvious danger is Hucklesbrook, the Rank 2 horse. His Newbury reappearance was encouraging in a race that has already worked out well, and he has proven high-end handicap form over this trip. However, Comment Shaper flags a possible weakness late on under pressure, and with Ascot likely to become a searching stamina test in the final furlong, he may prove vulnerable to a stronger finisher.

Of the closers, Toyotomi and Kodiac Thriller make most appeal. Timeform are notably keen on Toyotomi, who is now dangerously well handicapped after a gelding operation, while Kodiac Thriller has the ideal pace setup and arrives race-fit after winning at Ripon. Still, both sit below the top two on the core ratings.

A small concern for Elements Of Fire is the surface switch, as all four wins have come on AW, but his Doncaster fourth last year hinted turf ability remains untapped. Given the clear superiority of the HRB rating and favourable race shape, he still rates the percentage call.

Selection: Elements Of Fire

Saver/Danger: Hucklesbrook

Verdict Strength: Medium-Strong