Chester 3.40 – Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (6f)
This competitive Class 4 sprint looks set to be run at a furious gallop, and the Comment Shaper data strongly suggests the race could collapse late. With two confirmed front runners and a “Very Strong Shape” scenario rating, Chester’s usual pace bias may not be enough to save those forcing it early. That immediately brings the strong closers into focus.
From an HRB TimeWise perspective, Kirkdale tops the ratings on 330.9, but there are concerns. His recent wins came on the all-weather off strongly-run races that unfolded perfectly for his late style, and stall 14 at Chester is notoriously difficult for hold-up horses. The same concern applies to Bright and Queue Dos from wide draws.
The horse that appeals most is KINIRO. He sits second on the HRB rankings — historically a very strong position — and has several positives aligning. Timeform marked him down as an “authoritative” Lingfield winner on his final start for Harry Charlton, and importantly he now joins a new yard after a 40,000gns purchase. Oisin Murphy retaining the ride catches the eye.
Comment Shaper also rates him as a strong late finisher, exactly the profile wanted if the anticipated pace war develops. His recent behavioural pattern (HU → P → P → PS) suggests versatility, and stall 11 may allow Murphy to slot in behind the speed before delivering late. Unlike several rivals, he still looks capable of progressing from his current mark.
Clonmacash is respected from stall 1 and has ideal tactical positioning around Chester, while The Good Biscuit is another suited by a collapsing pace and makes each-way appeal under a useful 3 lb claimer. Rosenpur could lead for a long way back at his favoured venue but may become vulnerable late if pressured.
Verdict
Selection: KINIRO
Main danger: Clonmacash
Each-way angle: The Good Biscuit
Confidence
Medium-Strong