5.20 Chester – Selection Blog
Chester’s 1m4½f handicaps are rarely straightforward, especially with 16 runners and the inside draw bias firmly in play. The stalls data strongly favours low numbers, and Timeform also notes that high draws are at a disadvantage. That immediately makes life harder for Patagonia Girl in stall 14, despite her strong profile and recent Yarmouth second.
HRB TimeWise Master makes Playtime top rated, but he is now a non-runner, so the focus shifts to the next two meaningful candidates: Nightsinwhitesatin and Siouxfonic. Nightsinwhitesatin is effectively the strongest live HRB contender, ranked second overall with an excellent recent-run figure of 89.6 and solid speed support. She returned with a narrow second at Thirsk over this trip, arrives fit, and Toby Moore’s 7 lb claim looks valuable in an apprentice handicap.
The Comment Shaper also helps her case. There is no obvious front-runner and early pressure is rated low, but Timeform predicts a stronger pace than HRB’s comment model. Either way, Nightsinwhitesatin has the right finishing profile, being marked as a strong late finisher, which is useful around Chester if the leaders overdo it or stack up turning in.
Siouxfonic is interesting as the HRB third-ranked runner and has cheekpieces fitted first time, but he still has to prove himself in this grade on turf. Patagonia Girl is respected by Timeform and is lightly raced, but stall 14 is a major concern. Newtown Duke has the plum draw in stall 1 and is a danger if staying, though HRB has him only seventh.
Self-critique: I am slightly uneasy opposing Patagonia Girl, as her form is strong, but the draw and HRB ranking temper enthusiasm. Nightsinwhitesatin has the cleanest blend of rating, form, draw and finishing style.
Selection: Nightsinwhitesatin
Confidence: Strong