1.10 Ascot – Peroni Nastro Azzurro EBF Novice Stakes (6f)

This is typically a strong early-season Ascot novice and, despite the lack of meaningful race-shape evidence, the TimeWise Master ratings point very firmly towards one horse.

Main Selection: KING OF MONTENEGRO (IRE)

HRB’s Rank 1 has an outstanding historical edge in these 10-runner non-handicap 2yo races, producing around a 30% strike-rate, almost double Rank 2. That immediately makes King Of Montenegro extremely interesting despite the market dismissing him at 20/1–33/1.

Unlike most of these rivals, he has already run. His Bath debut can be upgraded slightly: he travelled prominently, shaped professionally for a long way and the Comment Shaper notes he is “often staying on” and “often finishing well”. In a race lacking obvious pace, that experience could prove valuable because inexperienced rivals may get caught flat-footed.

The race-shape projection is weak, with no confirmed front runner and only one likely prominent racer — King Of Montenegro himself. That tactical angle matters at Ascot over 6f because controlling or sitting close to a modest pace can be a major advantage. Timeform’s pace hint also specifically states he “shouldn’t be troubled by any pace scenario”.

There are obvious dangers. Victory Gold is the standout newcomer on pedigree and trainer trends. Saeed bin Suroor has won this race twice in the last decade and Oisin Murphy is a notable booking. He is the clear Rank 2 and the most logical saver. Cuban Heels also commands respect for the Gosdens, while Jaijai represents a yard whose juveniles are running well.

Self-Critique & Reassessment

The concern with King Of Montenegro is whether his debut simply lacked the raw speed needed for this sharper contest. Timeform labelled him “vulnerable”, and newcomers from elite yards can improve dramatically first time out. However, the combination of:

proven experience,

favourable projected positioning,

strong HRB Rank 1 profile,

and a huge ratings gap


makes him difficult to ignore at the prices.

Verdict

KING OF MONTENEGRO (IRE) to win
Saver: Victory Gold (IRE)

Confidence

Medium