2.55 Ascot – Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Italy Handicap (Class 3)

Selection: BULLETIN (IRE)

This looks a fascinating Ascot handicap with the Comment Shaper pointing towards a strongly-run race and a potentially punishing pace scenario. Two confirmed front-runners in Gordon Grey and Wine Dark Sea, combined with four prominent racers, creates a projected “Very Strong Shape” with a high collapse risk. Historically at this trip and track, that setup often favours horses ridden patiently who can finish strongly late.

The obvious starting point is the HRB TimeWise Master ratings, where Valedictory is clear Rank 1 on 349.0. Given the strong historical edge of top-ranked runners, he demands huge respect after an excellent handicap debut at Newbury. However, there are reasons to oppose him at cramped odds. He steps up in trip into a race likely to be run at a searching gallop and may find himself closer to the pace than ideal. From a value perspective, he looks vulnerable despite his obvious upside.

The horse who makes most appeal against the favourite is Bulletin (IRE). He sits prominently in the ratings (Rank 3 but only marginally behind Rank 2 Al Wasl Storm) and crucially aligns perfectly with the expected race shape. Comment Shaper marks him as a strong late finisher ⭐⭐⭐, with repeated evidence of staying on strongly off solid tempos. His close third behind Valedictory at Newbury reads particularly well given he was finishing best of all late on.

Ascot’s long straight should suit his grinding style and the likely pace collapse enhances his claims further. He is also admirably reliable, arriving fit from a seasonal return, whereas several rivals are returning from breaks or trying new conditions.

Al Wasl Storm is respected after a progressive handicap win at Newbury and could improve again after a break, but he may not get his own way up front. Opportunity has class but lacks recent match sharpness and has to prove he handles a strongly-run handicap scenario.

Verdict

BULLETIN (IRE) looks the best combination of pace setup, recent form and value against the favourite.

Confidence: Medium