1.55 Leopardstown – Captain Dara Fitzpatrick Memorial Maiden

Selection: CANNES (IRE)

This looks a strong maiden on paper for the grade, but the evidence from both HRB and Timeform points firmly towards Cannes. The Joseph O’Brien-trained colt is ranked clear TimeWise Master Rank 1 with a total of 322.8, comfortably ahead of the field, and importantly holds the best combination of proven form, finishing strength and suitability for today’s setup.

His Leopardstown second last time reads particularly well. He conceded first run to the winner over 10f on soft ground yet closed strongly all the way to the line. Comment Shaper reinforces that visual impression, identifying him as the race’s strongest late finisher with a two-star finishing profile. Today’s extra two furlongs on a sounder surface should suit perfectly.

The race shape is also likely to help him. There is no confirmed front runner and the pace forecast is weak-to-moderate, meaning positioning and finishing efficiency become crucial. Cannes is predicted to track the leaders before delivering late, exactly the sort of profile that tends to thrive in steadily-run Leopardstown maidens.

Almazann is the obvious danger and rates the only meaningful alternative. He was narrowly beaten on debut at Cork after attracting strong market support and remains open to plenty of improvement for Dermot Weld. HRB still places him notably behind Cannes overall, however, especially on speed and proven finishing metrics. The market may make this close, but Cannes has achieved more under race conditions.

Antigua is respected for Aidan O’Brien, particularly with first-time cheekpieces and a step up in trip continuing to unlock improvement. However, he remains only third on ratings and his finishing profile is less convincing than the top pair.

A brief self-critique: the lack of strong pace could theoretically disadvantage a hold-up finisher if the race turns tactical. Even so, Cannes showed enough tactical pace at Leopardstown to avoid becoming trapped.

Verdict

CANNES (IRE) to win

Confidence

Strong