3.05 Leopardstown – Amethyst Stakes (Listed)

A fascinating Listed mile with several returning pattern performers, but the race sets up particularly well for CATALINA DELCARPIO.

HRB TimeWise Master ratings strongly favour her, with a clear Rank 1 total of 412.6, notably ahead of Mississippi River and Excellent Believe. Given the long-term strike rate bias towards the top-ranked horse in these races, that immediately commands respect. Her profile also suggests there is still more to come. She mixed it in stronger company last season, including an excellent third in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, and her Curragh reappearance over an inadequate testing mile on heavy ground looked more of a prep than a fully wound-up effort.

Comment Shaper adds another positive layer. The projected race shape lacks a confirmed front-runner, suggesting a steadily-run tactical contest. Catalina Delcarpio is predicted to sit prominently in the “tracked leaders” group, which looks ideal given Timeform’s pace note that hold-up horses may struggle despite the anticipated stronger tempo. Her tendency to finish her races well without needing an end-to-end gallop is a major asset here.

The chief danger is Excellent Believe, the only runner who really fits the preferred HRB Rank 1–2 historical profile strongly enough to threaten. He shaped as though needing the run at Doncaster and possesses one of the strongest late-finishing profiles in the field. However, he may still be vulnerable tactically if Leopardstown turns into a positioning race.

Alcantor is respected on pure form and Timeform make him their selection, but there are a few questions. This is his first run for Joseph O’Brien after a lengthy absence, and his HRB profile is surprisingly weak for a likely favourite, ranking only seventh overall. At current odds, he looks opposable.

Mississippi River could outrun his price with first-time blinkers, while Tokenomics is the most interesting each-way alternative if the pace becomes stronger than expected.

Selection

CATALINA DELCARPIO

Saver / Main Danger

Excellent Believe

Confidence

Medium-Strong