3.40 Leopardstown – Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3)

This looks a fascinating but tactical Derby Trial with only five runners and a notably weak pace projection from both Comment Shaper and Timeform. In small-field Pattern races like this, positioning and tactical speed can outweigh outright stamina, especially around Leopardstown.

The HRB TimeWise Master ratings strongly favour Endorsement (421.7), who is clear Rank 1 and importantly sits well ahead of the rest on the model. Given the historical edge of Rank 1 horses in these races, that immediately makes him the percentage call. His Ballysax second over course and distance reads very well in context, particularly as he travelled prominently before sticking on strongly in testing conditions. The addition of first-time cheekpieces is interesting and could sharpen him further in what may become a steadily-run tactical affair.

Comment Shaper also strengthens his case. With no confirmed front runner and very little early pressure expected, horses able to race handily without fighting the rider gain a major advantage. Endorsement is predicted to track the pace and owns the strongest late-finishing profile in the field. Timeform specifically noted the likely steady pace should suit him more than Pierre Bonnard.

Pierre Bonnard is the obvious danger. He was a high-class juvenile and Timeform expects significant improvement from his Ballysax reappearance. However, his profile is more that of a horse who builds through a race rather than one suited by a tactical crawl. At odds-on, he looks priced on reputation rather than current setup.

Shaihaan is respected after his Curragh maiden win, especially with subsequent winners behind him, but he lacks the proven Group-level substance of the top two. James J Braddock shapes like a future middle-distance stayer and may need further.

Selection: ENDORSEMENT (IRE)

HRB Rank 1

Tactical setup ideal

Strong finishing profile

First-time cheekpieces a possible upgrade

Proven over course and distance


Saver: Pierre Bonnard (IRE)

Confidence: Medium-Strong