5.53 Roscommon – Blog Selection

This looks the sort of Roscommon 7½f handicap where the winner should come from the top of the HRB stack, and Sun Soldier makes most appeal. He is Rank 1 on TimeWise Master, which matters plenty given the strong historical edge of the top-rated horse, and he also has the right overall profile for today’s set-up. His comeback fifth at the Curragh was better than the bare result, shaping as though fitness just told late, and Timeform’s view that he should strip fitter is persuasive.

The race shape is important. Comment Shaper points to a strong pace scenario, with no obvious lone front-runner and enough pressure from prominent and tracked-leader types to set it up for something finishing off. Sun Soldier is predicted to sit tracked leaders, which is often a very handy place to be in these races: close enough not to be trapped by pace, but not committed too early. His comment profile of “strong finisher / strong late finisher” backs that up.

The main danger is clearly Highbury See See, the Rank 2 horse and the only serious saver against the selection on the numbers. He is one of the standout late finishers in Comment Shaper, has a favourable pace set-up, and stall 6 looks workable given the evidence that high draws are not ideal here. He was also reportedly left poorly placed at Limerick, so there is a fair case that his recent form underplays him.

Of the others, Zaraahmando is solid and consistent, but stall 11 is not a gift with the draw bias. Chester Nimitz is interesting on his second start after a trainer change from Noel Meade to G. O’Leary, while Finsceal Annie gets cheekpieces back on. Even so, both need to step up.

Self-critique: the pace could collapse harder than expected, and if that happens Highbury See See may be the one best suited. But with the Rank 1 bias, fitter second run angle, good draw and solid tactical position, Sun Soldier is still the percentage call.

Selection: Sun Soldier
Saver/alternative: Highbury See See
Confidence: Medium