6.37 Killarney – BOYLE Sports An Riocht Chase (Grade 3)

This looks a race that should be built around the top two on the HRB TimeWise Master, exactly as the strike-rate data suggests. Jesse Evans is Rank 1 on 372.0 and Gentleman De Mee is Rank 2 on 362.1, and I’d be very wary of straying too far beyond that pair.

On pure HRB, Jesse Evans has the edge. He is clear on total, has a solid level score, and Comment Shaper flags him as a strong late finisher. He is also a reliable type who usually runs his race. The concern is the likely shape. Comment Shaper points to a single weak front runner and only moderate pressure, while Timeform’s pace hint says a steady gallop should favour Gentleman De Mee over Sa Fureur. That same logic can also work against Jesse Evans, because his best weapon is finishing power, and a steadily-run Grade 3 may not set up perfectly for him.

Gentleman De Mee brings the strongest recent class lines. His Timeform rating of 180 is the best in the field, and his fourth in a big-field Aintree handicap reads well in this company. He is drawn by race shape as a tracked leader type, which looks ideal if Maxxum gets an uncomplicated lead without going hard. There is also a strong race trend angle: Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 10 runnings, including 3 of the last 4 according to the analyst note. Harry Cobden’s chase-favourite record is another positive. No trainer change of note here, and the key equipment angle is that Gentleman De Mee and Jesse Evans both run in a tongue-tie, with Three Card Brag in a hood and Senecia in blinkers.

Self-critique: backing against HRB Rank 1 is never ideal, especially in a race where Jesse Evans is not hard to make a case for. But the combination of class, pace setup, and Mullins’ race record just nudges me towards Gentleman De Mee.

Selection: Gentleman De Mee
Saver/next best: Jesse Evans
Confidence: Medium