7.47 Windsor – Rendells Are Hammers Handicap

This looks a good race to trust the top end of the HRB TimeWise Master rather than get seduced by the obvious recent hat-trick horse. The key point is that the top two on the sheet are Dartrey and Abundant, and that is where the analysis should begin.

Abundant is the one I want. He is only rank 2 on TimeWise Master, but the overall profile is very persuasive. His HRB figures are solid across the board, his Lvl score of 36.2 suggests there is more to come, and Timeform notes he progressed with each of his three runs before making all for a wide-margin win at Southwell. He now goes handicapping after 199 days off and has also been gelded, which could sharpen him up again. The Comment Shaper is especially interesting: he is the only identified front runner, has a high-confidence, very consistent run style, and in a race where Windsor’s mile can reward horses racing prominently, that tactical angle matters plenty.

Dartrey is the obvious saver because he is rank 1, and the HRB rules say that horse deserves maximum respect. However, there are enough reasons to oppose him for win purposes. Comment Shaper flags him as a poor starter / slow away, he is drawn 13, and this is his first go at a mile after doing his winning over 6f-7f on the all-weather. He may still improve, but there are more moving parts.

Timeform sides with Wild Thoughts, and that is understandable after three handicap wins, but he is only rank 4 on TimeWise Master and must defy a 9 lb rise in a stronger race. That makes him opposable at the prices.

Past winners of this race tend to be the well-fancied, progressive sort, which again points toward Abundant.

Self-critique and reassessment: the danger is that I am slightly downgrading rank-1 Dartrey because of pace and draw concerns. But after reassessing, Abundant still looks the cleaner tactical fit and the likelier horse to run his race.

Selection: Abundant
Saver: Dartrey
Confidence: Medium