6.20 Lingfield – Download The At The Races App Fillies’ Novice Stakes

Selection: HATOUR (IRE)
Confidence: Strong

This looks a high-quality fillies’ novice for the grade, but the HRB TimeWise Master ratings point very firmly towards Hatour. She is the clear Rank 1 horse on 311.1, and given the historical edge enjoyed by top-ranked runners in these races, that immediately makes her the percentage call.

The Gosden filly shaped with considerable promise on debut at Newmarket last October over this same 7f trip. The bare result – fourth beaten 5½ lengths – does not fully reflect the run. She travelled professionally, kept on steadily and looked a filly likely to improve significantly with time and maturity. The market support that day also suggested she had been showing plenty at home.

The race shape is particularly interesting. Comment Shaper identifies four likely front runners and labels the pace setup a “Very Strong Shape”. Bright Summer, Thursday Girl, Eskimo Pie and Music Academy all like to race prominently, which could generate enough early pressure to favour something sitting just behind the speed. Hatour is predicted to race prominently rather than aggressively forcing the pace, and that tactical setup could prove ideal around Lingfield.

Thursday Girl rates the main danger. She is HRB Rank 2 and arrives after chasing home a useful filly at Newmarket. Her finishing comments are notably positive, and she may get a good tow into the race if settling better than some of the other pace influences. She is respected and looks the obvious saver.

Bright Summer also commands attention for Balding and Murphy after a promising Newbury debut, but she may get caught in the early battle for position from stall 2.

A slight concern for Hatour is the 214-day absence, and the Gosdens are not always fully wound up first time back. However, the combination of elite stable, top HRB rank, strong projected tactical position and expected natural progression makes her the standout.

Verdict:
Hatour looks the most likely winner and rates a Strong selection.