2.33 Perth – Murrayshall Country Estate Handicap Chase

The key to this race looks heavily tied to the projected pace collapse. Comment Shaper identifies three confirmed front runners with a Very Strong Shape and a high collapse risk, which is often crucial around Perth over this sharp 2m trip. That immediately raises doubts about horses likely to force matters early, particularly Newtown Rambler and Hypotenus, both of whom repeatedly weaken late after aggressive rides.

From an HRB TimeWise perspective, Next Twist is the clear standout. Importantly, he is Rank 1, which historically dominates these races, especially in small-field non-handicap or lightly competitive handicap chases. His total of 350.4 is miles clear of the field, and the underlying figures are strong across the board, particularly the Horse and Speed components. Olly Murphy’s excellent Perth record and Sean Bowen’s outstanding strike-rate on chase favourites add further confidence.

The concern is tactical. Comment Shaper has him projected as a front runner in a race already overloaded with pace. However, his recent behavioural pattern suggests versatility (FR → P → FR → HU), and that adaptability may prove decisive. Unlike several pace rivals, he also carries a “Strong Finisher” marker, suggesting he can survive a contested lead better than the others.

Shadowfax Of Rohan is the obvious alternative. He is back over fences after a poor hurdle effort, is improving as a chaser following wind surgery, and Timeform strongly respects him. The issue is that he is 5lb out of the handicap and may get caught in the early battle.

A fascinating outsider is Garde Des Champs. He is the only confirmed hold-up horse and the race shape could play perfectly into his hands. His late-finishing profile makes him dangerous if the leaders overcook it, though HRB rank and overall profile are notably weaker than the top pair.

Selection: NEXT TWIST (FR)

Saver/Danger: Shadowfax Of Rohan

Value Place Angle: Garde Des Champs

Confidence: Strong