5.15 York – Stuey Weston & Friends Getting Out Handicap

This looks a proper York puzzle, but the race starts with Minhad, who is Rank 1 on HRB TimeWise Master and that matters most. In these races I want to be anchored to the top of the ratings unless there is a compelling reason to oppose, and Minhad has more than just the numbers in his favour. His latest Thirsk win came on his reappearance after being gelded, and it suggested he may have returned stronger and more professional. His 322.5 total is clear of the field, and his big Hrs figure backs up the overall profile.

The Comment Shaper also strengthens his case. York’s 1m4f handicap is forecast to be run at a strong pace, with no obvious front-runner but plenty of pressure from prominent racers. That often helps the race fall apart late, and Minhad is one of the standout strong late finishers in the field. From a hold-up position he should get the race run to suit.

The main danger on my reading is actually Jez Bomb, the Rank 2 horse, who also fits the predicted shape as another runner likely to come late. He is well treated on the figures and has a staying style, but the slight concern is that this is his first try at the trip, so he is being asked a new question. Great Bedwyn has obvious claims too, having won this race last year off a higher mark, while Mafting arrives in good current form. Timeform prefers Master Builder, but he is only 13th on HRB, and that makes him a risky win bet in a race where I want to trust the stronger ratings base.

A couple of notable changes elsewhere: Military Cross has joined Sam England, had a breathing operation and now wears a first-time tongue-tie, while Fox Journey also shaped well after a trainer switch.

After reassessing it, I still come back to Minhad. He has the best blend of ratings, recent evidence and race-shape suitability.

Selection: Minhad
Confidence: Medium