York’s Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap looks one of the most competitive betting races of the afternoon, with a big-field Class 2 handicap over 7f 192y set to be run at a strong pace on good ground.

The early shape of the race could prove decisive. Timeform forecasts a “very strong” gallop, and that is important around York’s turning mile, where prominent racers can easily do too much too soon. Add in a draw bias that appears to favour lower numbers, and the race may set up perfectly for patiently-ridden closers drawn near the inside.

That brings Sea Force firmly into the picture. William Haggas’ 4yo shaped much better than the bare result when third in the Thirsk Hunt Cup, repeatedly meeting trouble before finishing strongly once seeing daylight. Drawn low again here, he looks well positioned tactically and still has the profile of a progressive handicapper.

Shout also makes plenty of appeal. His two runs this season have contained excuses, particularly at Newbury where he was never ideally placed in a messy race. His Ascot handicap form from last autumn reads well in the context of this contest, and the expected pace collapse could play directly to his strengths.

Cerulean Bay is another respected contender after a strong reappearance effort at Haydock. David O’Meara’s runner remains on the upgrade and has the right racing style for this sort of test.

Of the outsiders, Point Of Contact is particularly interesting on his seasonal return. Andrew Balding’s lightly-raced 4yo has already shown useful York form and could still have more to offer after being gelded over the winter.

In a race where luck in running will matter, low draws, patience and proven big-field handicap form may prove the key ingredients.