7f, Good ground, 11 runners
Pace forecast: Strong
Draw bias: High numbers favoured

This looks a properly-run 7f Listed race with several natural pace angles. Wannabe Royal, King Cuan and possibly Carolina Jetstream can force the issue, while Native Warrior is tactically versatile and should get a strong tow into the race from stall 9. Given the expected pace pressure at Naas over 7f, prominent racers drawn high are usually well positioned, although a collapse can occasionally bring closers into play late.

The race shape slightly favours horses proven at strongly-run 7f on turf rather than pure speed types stretching out. The high draw bias enhances the claims of Native Warrior, Rahmi and Carolina Jetstream, while lower-drawn hold-up horses may need gaps at the right time.

The key question tactically is whether the pace becomes overly aggressive. If not, Native Warrior looks ideally positioned. If it turns into an attritional race, East Hampton becomes more dangerous late on.


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Race Assessment – Weighting The Factors

For this particular contest, the most important factors are:

1. Proven Listed/Group 7f form


2. Ability to handle a strong pace scenario


3. Draw/pace interaction


4. Current fitness and recent run quality


5. Tactical positioning at Naas over 7f



Less emphasis should be placed on raw ratings from lower grades or AW form. Several runners arrive off handicap or Dundalk form which may flatter them against hardened Listed performers.


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Runner-by-runner Analysis

1. EAST HAMPTON – 8/10

Proven, reliable Listed/Group performer who shaped extremely well on seasonal return at the Curragh when the race setup disadvantaged hold-up horses. Course-and-distance winner and handles good ground well. Strong pace here should suit and David Marnane’s runners can improve notably second start back.

Slight concern is draw 7 not being as advantageous as the higher numbers and whether he concedes first run to Native Warrior.

Profile: Proven
Risk: Hold-up style means some traffic dependence.


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2. EXPANDED – 8.5/10 (P)

Potentially the class horse if rediscovering juvenile form. Dewhurst second as a 2yo remains standout form in this field. Encouraging Leopardstown comeback behind The Lion In Winter reads strongly in the context of this race.

Dropping back to 7f looks sensible and Ryan Moore booked is notable. Timeform note about trading very short in-running last time suggests he travelled strongly and may have needed the outing.

The concern is temperament/race sharpness: he has not fully delivered on early promise yet and can race keenly.

Profile: Promising (P)
Market watch strongly advised second run back.


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3. KING CUAN – 6.5/10

Very solid and genuine at this level but looks vulnerable against stronger closers over this trip. Usually gives his running and likes Naas, though 7f at this level against proven milers may stretch him late.

Strong pace and high draw help, but he may become vulnerable inside the final furlong.

Profile: Proven
Place possibilities rather than obvious win angle.


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4. NATIVE WARRIOR – 9/10

The form pick. Since the visor went on he has developed into a smart, tactically adaptable 7f horse. Excellent Ascot handicap wins last autumn and returned with a strong Group 3 second at Saint-Cloud.

Draw 9 is ideal given the bias, strong pace suits and Jamie Spencer can track the speed before delivering late. Proven in large-field strongly-run races and arrives with the best recent body of form.

Only slight concern is whether this sharper 7f around Naas slightly favours speedier rivals, but overall conditions look optimal.

Profile: Progressive (p)
The one everything revolves around.


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5. RAHMI – 5.5/10

Capable on his day and well drawn in 10, but now a 7yo and likely vulnerable to younger legs. Heavy ground return can be forgiven and Naas clearly suits him, though this is stronger than the handicap he won here.

Needs race to collapse and likely requires career-best Listed performance.

Profile: Proven
Interesting if market support arrives.


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6. CAROLINA JETSTREAM – 4.5/10 (p)

Progressive through the winter on AW but turf form in stronger company leaves him with plenty to find. Draw 11 helps and could get a good stalking trip.

This class rise looks severe unless improving again.

Profile: Progressive (p)


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7. CHANTEZ – 3.5/10

Useful filly at two but failed to train on fully at three and returns from 259 days off in a deep race against males. Trainer has won this race before which is a small positive.

Likely to need the outing.

Profile: Proven juvenile form only.


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8. GREYDREAMBELIEVER – 3/10

Consistent handicapper but this is a huge rise in class. Draw 1 is a negative given the stated bias and she lacks the tactical speed of the principals.

Profile: Genuine but exposed.


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9. WANNABE ROYAL – 4/10

Front-running angle who shaped better than result in the Gladness Stakes. Could influence pace from stall 3 but vulnerable late if pressured.

Likely pace casualty.


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10. GREEK MYTHOLOGY – 7/10 (P)

Lightly raced 3yo with upside. The Gowran second came in a tactical affair that did not fully suit and he remains capable of significant improvement.

Receives weight from older horses and Timeform specifically noted the pace setup should not deter him. Draw 6 workable.

Still needs a sizeable leap on ratings but this is the type who could suddenly progress.

Profile: Promising (P)


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11. TASHAKOUR – 5.5/10 (p)

Improving colt who won nicely at Cork over 1m. Looks as though further may suit ideally and this sharper 7f against battle-hardened older horses may catch him out for speed.

Could stay on into the frame late.

Profile: Progressive (p)


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Strongest Contenders

Native Warrior

Expanded

East Hampton


Main Dangers

Greek Mythology

King Cuan


Interesting Outsiders

Rahmi (if pace collapses)

Tashakour (if stamina becomes decisive)



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Timeform / Trends Notes

Native Warrior has improved markedly since visored.

Expanded shaped far better than bare result last time and traded very short in-running.

East Hampton was the only closer to make significant ground at the Curragh on return.

G. M. Lyons has won 2 of the last 6 runnings (Chantez).

Aidan O’Brien operating at 30% strike-rate at Naas since 2022.



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Hold-up Risks / Luck in Running

East Hampton

Expanded

Greek Mythology


All could need gaps if ridden patiently in a strongly-run race.


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Private Tissue

Native Warrior — 11/4

Expanded — 3/1

East Hampton — 11/2

Greek Mythology — 8/1

King Cuan — 10/1

Tashakour — 14/1

Rahmi — 16/1

Carolina Jetstream — 25/1

Wannabe Royal — 33/1

Chantez — 40/1

Greydreambeliever — 50/1



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Summary

Native Warrior brings the strongest current form into the race and gets conditions likely to suit ideally: strong pace, favourable draw and a proven ability to operate in tactical 7f contests. Expanded looks the major threat if building on his Leopardstown return and dropping back to 7f could unlock more. East Hampton appeals as the solid each-way type who should be finishing strongly if the leaders overdo it.

Greek Mythology is the intriguing unexposed runner receiving weight and remains capable of a sizeable step forward.


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ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Native Warrior
Most solid combination of current form, pace suitability, draw and tactical profile.

Each-Way Saver

East Hampton
Reliable Listed performer who should get the race run to suit and looks overpriced relative to his chance.