Prize: £31,826 to the winner
Field size: 6 runners
A fascinating tactical Group 3 with several lightly raced colts carrying Arc entries. Small-field dynamics matter here and there is unlikely to be a searching gallop unless one of the less fancied runners forces it. Longchamp over this trip on soft ground generally rewards balance, tactical speed and the ability to quicken off steady fractions rather than relentless stamina.
Pace & Draw Angles
With only six runners, draw is less important than positioning, though low-to-middle draws can still help save ground around the bends. Expected pace looks only even:
Jabracadabra has raced prominently during his recent winning sequence and could be the natural pace angle.
Varandir and Chamali both look tactically versatile.
Wiki may be ridden more patiently and could need gaps at the right time if the race develops into a sprint finish.
In this type of steadily-run French Group race, tactical efficiency can outweigh raw ratings. That slightly elevates the importance of temperament and jockeyship.
Runner-by-runner assessment
1. Varandir — 9/10 (P)
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Unbeaten in two starts and strongly progressive. His Lyon-Parilly success over 1m4f on very soft ground suggested both stamina and professionalism, while his Longchamp debut win already proved track suitability. Graffard’s middle-distance 3yos are often carefully campaigned and this colt has the profile of one expected to progress into Pattern company.
The key positives:
Proven at Longchamp
Proven with ease in the ground
Strong stamina indicators
Tactical profile suitable for a small-field Group race
The concern is purely experience. He has not yet met rivals of this calibre and may still be learning. Nevertheless, his profile screams Group performer and the TS figure is strong in context.
Suitability:
Going 9/10 | Track 9/10 | Distance 9/10 | Temperament 8/10
Progressive and very likely still improving.
2. Baroud — 5.5/10
Trainer: Andre Fabre
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Fabre has farmed this race historically and that alone commands respect. Baroud improved markedly to win a Saint-Cloud maiden over 1m4f, but the bare form leaves him with work to do against the principals.
He shapes as though soft ground and middle distances suit well enough, though his earlier runs lacked authority and he still looks mentally and physically immature compared to the leading trio.
Could improve again for the stable, but on adjusted figures he looks vulnerable.
Suitability:
Going 8/10 | Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Class 5/10
3. Chamali — 8.5/10 (P)
Trainer: Gianluca Bietolini
Jockey: Cristian Demuro
Possibly the most interesting form line in the race. His C&D conditions victory last month over Rumoriste reads well and he travelled with the authority of a colt progressing quickly. The manner in which he handled Longchamp and softish ground was highly encouraging.
He has tactical speed, which is valuable here, and Demuro excels in these patient French tactical races.
Slight concern whether he has quite the same upside/stamina ceiling as Varandir over a truly testing 1m3f on soft ground, but his turn of foot is a major weapon if this becomes tactical.
Suitability:
Going 8/10 | Track 9/10 | Distance 8/10 | Temperament 9/10
A promising colt who could easily make Group-class strides.
4. Jabracadabra — 7/10 (p)
Trainer: Amy Murphy
Jockey: Ebbe Verhestraeten
Has improved dramatically since gelding and arrives on a hat-trick of wins. He deserves credit for consistency and attitude, especially handling heavy ground at Saint-Cloud last time.
However, this is a significantly deeper race and he now meets several potentially top-class colts. His recent tactical prominence could help in a race lacking pace, though.
He is more exposed than the unbeaten principals and may already be showing most of his level.
Suitability:
Going 9/10 | Distance 8/10 | Class 6/10 | Temperament 9/10
Could outrun market expectations if allowed a soft lead.
5. Zaramix — 5/10
Trainer: P & J Brandt
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Solid but vulnerable. Has already had opportunities in Listed and Group company and looks a notch below the principals on form and progression potential.
Soumillon is an obvious positive in a tactical race, but Zaramix has not shaped like a colt about to make a significant leap forward. More likely running for minor honours.
Suitability:
Going 7/10 | Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Class 5/10
6. Wiki — 8/10 (P)
Trainer: Christophe Ferland
Jockey: Maxime Guyon
Very interesting profile. His Listed third at Chantilly probably undersells the effort given race positioning and the way the contest unfolded. He holds Zaramix on that form and remains open to improvement after only two starts.
The concern is tactical pace. In a small field he risks being shuffled back if ridden patiently, and hold-up types can become hostage to positioning in slowly run French races.
Still, his pedigree and profile suggest there is more to come over middle distances.
Suitability:
Going 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Class 8/10 | Temperament 8/10
One to keep firmly onside as the season develops.
Are we weighing the race correctly?
Yes, but this race requires extra emphasis on:
Tactical speed
Track positioning
Potential for improvement
Traditional collateral form matters slightly less because several runners are lightly raced and still physically developing. In a six-runner French Group race, jockey timing and race shape become disproportionately important.
That favours:
Varandir
Chamali
while slightly reducing the edge of:
Wiki (possible hold-up complications)
Strongest Contenders
Varandir
Chamali
Wiki
Main Dangers
Jabracadabra if securing an uncontested lead
Fabre-trained Baroud if finding sudden improvement
Interesting Outsider
Jabracadabra — race setup could suit better than market expectation.
Private Tissue Estimate
Varandir — 11/8
Chamali — 9/4
Wiki — 10/3
Jabracadabra — 9/1
Baroud — 12/1
Zaramix — 18/1
Summary
This looks a strong renewal despite the small field, with several colts carrying Classic and Arc aspirations. Varandir appeals as the most complete package: proven at Longchamp, effective on soft ground, tactically adaptable and bred to improve further over middle distances.
Chamali rates the main threat after an impressive C&D success and could be the one best suited if this becomes tactical. Wiki is highly respected but may need luck if the tempo collapses.
ChatGPT Smart Plays
Win:
Varandir — strongest blend of proven suitability, progression and stable confidence.
Saver:
Chamali — tactically dangerous with strong Longchamp form and further upside.