McHale Mayo National Handicap Chase Listed Handicap, 2m7½f, good ground, 16 runners

This looks a proper staying handicap where stamina, jumping, recent form and track suitability should carry more weight than back-class alone. Ballinrobe is not a severe galloping test, so a horse that travels, jumps and stays without needing a war of attrition is preferred. No draw angle applies over jumps.

Likely pace angles: Native Speaker has made all before, while Maxxum, Ol Man Dingle, Lucky Lyreen and Cobra Queen can race handily. Hold-up or luck-in-running risks include Conyers Hill, who can travel strongly but not always find much, and Invictus Machin, who often runs well without winning.

Gordon Elliott has won the last three renewals, so Maxxum and Lucky Lyreen deserve respect on that trend alone.

Strongest contenders

He’s Gorgeous — 8.5/10 P
Progressive novice chaser with strong Punchestown form. The big question is the new trip, but he shaped as though further may suit and gets in on 10st 9lb. Promising type with upside.

Maxxum — 8/10 p
Classy staying hurdler and now back over fences. First handicap chase is a notable angle and Elliott’s race record is strong. Jumping under pressure in a big-field handicap is the main concern.

Baltic Bird — 8/10 p
Looks laid out for this. Trip, ground and track profile suit, and his Wexford run over 2m should have sharpened him up. Up in class, but still interesting.

Invictus Machin — 7.5/10
Consistent in good handicaps and Harry Cobden now knows him after Punchestown. Solid claims, but 1-17 over fences tempers enthusiasm.

Main dangers

Conyers Hill — 7/10
High RPR and strong form, but this trip is a real doubt and he has been called a bridle horse. The easy track helps, but stamina is not assured.

Mousey Brown — 7/10
Good-ground chase winner who stays 3m and had claims when falling at Haydock. Yard in form and Slevin booked. Solid each-way player if none the worse.

Drumgill — 6.5/10
Excellent second in this last year and a multiple Ballinrobe hurdles winner. Recent form is poor, but his track record makes him dangerous if revived after a break. Market watch advised.

Me Wee Bonnie Lass — 7/10 p
First reserve. Impressive Listed mares’ handicap winner and progressive, though she needs to get in.

Interesting outsiders

Flash De Touzaine — 6/10
Won on this card last year and stays well. Exposed, but not dismissed for minor money.

Midnight Our Fred — 5.5/10
Needs good ground and stays well, but this track may be sharp enough for him.

Cobra Queen — 5.5/10 p
Progressive last summer and a course winner, but 198 days off is a major concern. Watch the market.

Ambitious Fellow — 6/10
Third reserve. Has ability and stays, but jumping has been an issue.

Runner marks

Perceval Legallois 5/10
Maxxum 8/10 p
Ol Man Dingle 5.5/10
Conyers Hill 7/10
Drumgill 6.5/10
Fakir d’Oudairies 5/10
He’s Gorgeous 8.5/10 P
Invictus Machin 7.5/10
Cobra Queen 5.5/10 p
Native Speaker 4.5/10
Flash De Touzaine 6/10
Midnight Our Fred 5.5/10
Mousey Brown 7/10
Lucky Lyreen 5.5/10
Watch The Weather 5.5/10
Baltic Bird 8/10 p

Reserves:
Me Wee Bonnie Lass 7/10 p
Kings Hill 6/10 p
Ambitious Fellow 6/10

Private tissue estimate

He’s Gorgeous 6/1
Maxxum 13/2
Baltic Bird 7/1
Invictus Machin 8/1
Conyers Hill 10/1
Mousey Brown 11/1
Drumgill 14/1
Flash De Touzaine 18/1
Me Wee Bonnie Lass 18/1 if getting in
Others 20/1+

Smart play

Top win bet: He’s Gorgeous
He has the strongest blend of current form, workable mark and potential improvement if staying.

Second bet / each-way angle: Baltic Bird
With 16 runners and five places available, he looks the most appealing each-way alternative, especially as this race may have been a target. Watch closely for market strength or a big drift on any runner returning from a 90-day-plus layoff.