1m7½f (1m7f110y), Handicap Chase, Good Ground, 5yo+
12 runners

Race Assessment

Going Suitability

Good ground looks a key factor here. Several runners have stronger profiles with ease in the ground and may not be seen to best effect.

Most favoured by conditions:

Bynx – sole chase win came on good ground.

Stuntman Steve (p) – has been waiting for a return to genuine good ground.

Ballybrittas – hurdle win on good ground and shaped as though this trip/ground combination could suit.

Polly Poppins – best Tramore efforts have come on good ground.


Potentially disadvantaged:

Be Fierce – most wins achieved on softer conditions.

Typical Thomas – better form historically with more cut.



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Field Size Suitability

12-runner handicap places emphasis on jumping accuracy and track position around Tramore’s tight circuit.

Favoured:

Bynx

Ballybrittas

Polly Poppins


Possible traffic/luck concerns:

Hold-up types can find themselves needing gaps turning for home.



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Forecast Pace

Likely pace looks honest rather than overly strong.

Possible pace angles:

Be Fierce

Stuntman Steve

Ballybrittas


Those likely to benefit from a sensible pace:

Bynx

Lady Doyanne

Polly Poppins


No obvious pace collapse anticipated.


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Draw Bias

Not applicable (National Hunt chase).


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Pace and Track Position

At Tramore over this trip it is generally advantageous to race prominently without forcing matters.

Best suited:

Bynx

Ballybrittas

Stuntman Steve


Possible hold-up risk:

Polly Poppins occasionally requires a race to develop.

Itsalonglongroad can be ridden patiently.



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Class Suitability

Most proven at this grade:

Bynx

Stuntman Steve

Ballybrittas

Polly Poppins


Interesting class angle:

Lady Doyanne (P) enters chasing from a stronger hurdle background than many of these.



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Track Suitability

Strongest Tramore records:

Bynx

Course hurdle winner.

Generally runs well here.


Itsalonglongroad

Three C&D chase wins.

Outstanding course record despite advancing years.


Polly Poppins

Two best career efforts at Tramore.


Presenting Lad

Former C&D novice chase winner.



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Distance Suitability

Strong:

Bynx

Stuntman Steve

Polly Poppins

Ballybrittas


Question marks:

Typical Thomas after long absence.

Party President on chase debut.



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Temperament / Reliability

Most reliable:

Bynx

Polly Poppins


More difficult to trust:

Typical Thomas

Presenting Lad

Party President

Kingdom Calling



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Trainer & Jockey Angles

Henry de Bromhead / Darragh O’Keeffe

Lady Doyanne represents the highest-profile yard in the race.

Chase debutants from this operation always command respect.


Gavin Cromwell

Stuntman Steve comes from a stable operating at a strong strike rate.


Martin Hassett

Bynx arrives with a profile tailored to this race.


Market should be monitored closely for:

Lady Doyanne (first chase start)

Party President (new stable/chase debut)

Femme Magnifique (first run for yard)

Any horse returning from 90+ days.



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Runner Ratings

1. Bynx – 8.5/10

Course winner, proven on good ground, suitable trip, fair mark, returns to ideal company after Listed assignment. Very solid profile.

2. Lady Doyanne (P) – 8/10

Point winner and hurdle winner. Chase debut could unlock improvement. Promising profile from powerful yard.

3. Polly Poppins – 8/10

Excellent course angles and well handicapped. Long absence the obvious concern.

4. Ballybrittas (p) – 7.5/10

Progressive signs over fences. Drop back in trip should help. Strong each-way credentials.

5. Stuntman Steve (p) – 7.5/10

Conditions finally look right. First-time cheekpieces interesting. Dangerous if finding best hurdle form.

6. Femme Magnifique – 6.5/10

Capable of outrunning odds but lacks a compelling chase profile. Market useful.

7. Itsalonglongroad – 6.5/10

Massive course record and well treated on old form. Age and recent form temper enthusiasm.

8. Be Fierce – 6/10

Course winner but likely wants softer conditions.

9. Presenting Lad – 5.5/10

C&D winner but needs major revival.

10. Party President – 5/10

Chase debut after stable switch. Too many unknowns.

11. Typical Thomas – 4.5/10

Long absence and poor fresh record.

12. Kingdom Calling (P) – 3.5/10

Chase debut and difficult recent profile.


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Strongest Contenders

Bynx

Ticks most boxes:

Course form

Good-ground form

Chase experience

Suitable trip

Competitive mark


Lady Doyanne (P)

Potentially the most upside in the field. Point background suggests fences could bring improvement.

Polly Poppins

Very attractive on course form and handicap mark if fully wound up after the break.


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Main Dangers

Ballybrittas (p)

Stuntman Steve (p)

Polly Poppins



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Interesting Outsiders

Itsalonglongroad

Three C&D chase wins and now below last winning mark.

Femme Magnifique

New yard angle could spark improvement.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Bynx 4/1
Lady Doyanne (P) 5/1
Polly Poppins 11/2
Ballybrittas (p) 13/2
Stuntman Steve (p) 7/1
Femme Magnifique 10/1
Itsalonglongroad 12/1
Be Fierce 14/1
Party President 16/1
Presenting Lad 20/1
Typical Thomas 25/1
Kingdom Calling (P) 33/1



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Are We Weighing The Race Correctly?

For this particular handicap, I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Track suitability (Tramore specialists).


2. Good-ground effectiveness.


3. Recent chase form rather than hurdle ratings.


4. Course-and-distance evidence.


5. Potential improvement from lightly raced chasers.



Less weight:

Pure official ratings.

Historical form on soft/heavy ground.



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Summary

Bynx has the strongest overall profile and arrives with the fewest questions to answer. Lady Doyanne brings the most potential and could improve significantly for fences. Polly Poppins is extremely interesting from a handicapping perspective if fully fit after her break, while Ballybrittas looks a solid each-way contender in a race where the drop back in trip may be ideal.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Bynx – Proven under the conditions, course form, suitable mark and likely to run her race.

Each-Way Saver

Ballybrittas (p) – Progressive chasing profile, trip likely to suit better than recent assignments and should be competitive in a 12-runner handicap.