Going: Good
Field Size: 7 runners
Distance: 1m6f
Race Type: Staying handicap

Race Shape, Pace & Draw

Nottingham’s 1m6f start gives runners plenty of time to find position, so draw is generally a minor factor compared with pace and stamina.

Likely pace:

Two Plus Two is the obvious front-runner and made all at Bath recently.

Tupero usually races handily and should get a good stalking position.

Diamond Bay can race prominently.

In The Post, Tazaman and Little Peter are likely to be ridden more patiently.


With only seven runners, there is a possibility that Two Plus Two gets an uncontested lead, which is a significant tactical angle. In small-field staying handicaps, pace can outweigh draw considerations.

What matters most in this race?

1. Pace position


2. Current form


3. Stamina at 1m6f


4. Suitability to good ground


5. Handicap mark



Draw receives relatively little weighting in this contest.


—

Runner-by-Runner Assessment

1. TUPERO (Draw 3)

Rating: 8.8/10 (p)

Going: Proven on good ground.
Field size: Fine in small fields.
Pace suitability: Ideal tracking position behind likely leader.
Draw: Neutral.
Class: Well suited to Class 5.
Track: Nottingham should suit.
Distance: Proven at 1m6f.
Trainer: David O’Meara yard operating well.
Jockey: David Nolan knows him well.

A thriving recruit from France who has improved steadily this year. His Redcar win suggested there was more left in reserve and the 4lb rise looks manageable. His profile remains progressive and his recent figures are among the strongest in the field.


—

2. TWO PLUS TWO (Draw 6)

Rating: 8.5/10

Going: Good or faster ground suits.
Field size: Small field ideal.
Pace suitability: Major positive if allowed to dictate.
Draw: Wide draw not a concern over this trip.
Class: Proven at this level.
Distance: Strong stayer at 1m6f.
Trainer: Excellent recent strike rate.

Returned from a year off in excellent form and produced a determined front-running success at Bath. Only 3lb higher and could be dangerous if securing an easy lead. Main concern is whether that recent effort leaves a mark just nine days later.


—

3. IN THE POST (Draw 7)

Rating: 7.8/10 (P)

Going: Good ground suits.
Field size: No issue.
Pace suitability: Could need things to fall right from off the pace.
Distance: Shapes as though 1m6f will suit.
Profile: Lightly raced.

Still a maiden but remains one of the more interesting horses in the race. His Doncaster third was encouraging and there could be further improvement now stepping back up in trip. Promising rather than proven.


—

4. DIAMOND BAY (Draw 1)

Rating: 6.2/10

Going: Fine on good ground.
Field size: Small field may help.
Distance: Proven stayer.
Class: Dropping into a more suitable race than some recent assignments.

Veteran who has been competing in stronger races than this but arrives on a lengthy losing run. Current form leaves him with questions to answer despite carrying top weight.


—

5. TAZAMAN (Draw 4)

Rating: 6.0/10

Going: Good ground suits.
Track: Course-and-distance winner.
Distance: Proven stamina.

Returned from a break with a modest run at Doncaster and should improve for that outing. However, at nine years old he looks vulnerable against younger, progressive rivals.


—

6. BULLDOG SPIRIT (Draw 2)

Rating: 5.5/10

Going: Handles conditions.
Track: Former C&D winner.
Distance: Proven.

Hasn’t shown much in two starts for the current yard and needs a revival. The handicap mark gives him a chance if rediscovering old form, but recent evidence is not encouraging.


—

7. LITTLE PETER (Draw 5)

Rating: 4.8/10

Going: Fine.
Distance: Stays well.
Fitness: Hard to assess.

Won a point-to-point this spring but has not shown much in recent Flat handicaps. Needs to prove he retains enough ability under these conditions.


—

Strongest Contenders

Tupero

Progressive profile, thriving yard, recent win suggested more to come and likely to enjoy an ideal tactical setup.

Two Plus Two

Major pace threat who could take catching if obtaining a comfortable lead.

In The Post

Unexposed runner who may still have improvement in hand over staying trips.


—

Main Dangers

Two Plus Two if dictating.

In The Post if improving for the step back up in trip.



—

Interesting Outsider

Tazaman

Course-and-distance winner who should be fitter than on his seasonal return and may outrun market expectations.


—

Hold-Up Risks

In a seven-runner race there should be fewer traffic issues than normal, but:

In The Post

Tazaman

Little Peter


could be disadvantaged if the pace becomes steady and the leaders kick early.


—

Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Tupero 11/4
Two Plus Two 3/1
In The Post 9/2
Diamond Bay 10/1
Tazaman 12/1
Bulldog Spirit 16/1
Little Peter 20/1



—

Race Summary

This looks a tactical staying handicap where Two Plus Two is likely to control the pace. That is the key angle. However, Tupero arrives in the best current form, remains progressive, and his Redcar victory suggested he is still ahead of the handicapper despite the rise in the weights. In The Post is the lightly raced horse with scope for further progress and rates the most interesting alternative.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

1st Choice – TUPERO (Win)

Progressive profile, thriving stable, proven at the trip and likely to get the ideal run behind the pace.

2nd Choice – TWO PLUS TWO (Win Saver)

Front-running danger who could prove difficult to pass if securing an uncontested lead.

No each-way recommendation as the race has only 7 runners.