Class 3 Handicap | 2m 13y | Good ground | 4yo+ | 14 runners

Race Assessment

This looks a proper staying handicap where stamina, pace setup and track suitability are likely to matter more than pure ratings.

Pace Angle

Likely pace influences:

St Faz – habitual front-runner/prominent racer.

Treasure Islands – made all at Ripon and can go forward.

Almuhit – often prominent when at his best.

Anniversary – made much of the running at Salisbury.


There appears enough pace for the race to be run honestly rather than turn tactical.

Draw Angle

At Thirsk over 2m, draw tends to be far less important than over sprint distances. Positioning and securing a rhythm are generally more significant than stall location.

Wide draws are not a major negative.

Stayers who can settle and travel comfortably are favoured.



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Factor-by-Factor Analysis

Going Suitability

Good ground suits:

Hermetic

Pole Star

St Faz

Mountain Road

Treasure Islands


Slight concerns:

Minstrel Knight (best recent form on softer surfaces)

Arrange (better efforts often with cut)


Field Size Suitability

Large-field stayers:

Hermetic shaped well in a 17-runner York handicap.

St Faz ran respectably in the Chester Plate.

Gibside won a Chester Plate previously.


Potentially less suited:

Almuhit has gained much of his Flat success in small fields.


Forecast Pace Suitability

Strong pace likely favours:

Hermetic

Mountain Road

Gibside

Pole Star


Front-runners may need to avoid overdoing it:

St Faz

Treasure Islands


Class Suitability

Strongest recent Class 2/3 performers:

Pole Star

Hermetic

Anniversary

Minstrel Knight


Track Suitability

Thirsk’s long straight generally rewards genuine stayers.

Positives:

Hermetic

Pole Star

St Faz

Mountain Road


Distance Suitability

Strong 2m credentials:

Hermetic

St Faz

Treasure Islands

Elysian Flame

Almuhit


Question:

Pole Star has done most of his best work at 1m6f but shapes as though 2m remains workable.


Temperament

Reliable stayers:

St Faz

Artisan Dancer

Mountain Road


Slight concern:

Anniversary has mixed recent efforts despite ability.


Trainer Form/Suitability

Notable yards:

Ian Williams (Hermetic) excels with stayers.

Ralph Beckett (Anniversary) highly respected.

Charlie Johnston (Pole Star, Artisan Dancer) often does well with staying handicappers.

Edward Bethell (Minstrel Knight) places horses effectively.


Jockeys

Strong bookings:

Edward Greatrex (Hermetic)

Rossa Ryan (Anniversary)

Jason Hart (Pole Star)

Sean Levey (Almuhit)



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Are We Weighing The Race Correctly?

For this race I would increase emphasis on:

1. Stamina for a truly-run 2m


2. Current form


3. Ability in large-field handicaps


4. Trainer expertise with stayers



I would place less weight than normal on:

Draw

Speed figures achieved over shorter trips



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Strongest Contenders

Hermetic (P)

Ex-French recruit who shaped extremely well when fourth of 17 at York on British debut. Travelled strongly and kept finding. Ian Williams is adept with this type and improvement is highly likely second start for the yard.

Pole Star

Returned to form when third in a valuable Newmarket handicap. Proven progressive stayer last season and now looks back on track.

St Faz

Four wins this year. Had a nightmare draw in the Chester Plate and still wasn’t disgraced. Gets a much easier setup here.

Anniversary

Encouraging revival at Salisbury. Stays strongly and remains capable if building on that effort.


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Main Dangers

Mountain Road

Nicely treated on old form and shaped as though a return to 2m would suit.

Minstrel Knight

Useful dual-purpose performer. Has ability but good ground is not obviously ideal.

Treasure Islands (P)

Lightly raced 4yo who is progressing as a stayer. Receives a handy weight and could have further improvement.


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Interesting Outsiders

Elysian Flame

Veteran but won at Beverley two starts ago and has excellent historic staying handicap form.

Gibside

Last year’s Chester Plate winner. Needs major revival but dangerous if rediscovering that level.


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Hold-Up Risks Needing Luck

Hermetic

Mountain Road

Gibside


All likely to be ridden with patience and require gaps at the right time.


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Timeform/Profile Notes

Progressive (p)

Pole Star (p)

Treasure Islands (p)


Promising (P)

Hermetic (P)


Proven

St Faz

Anniversary

Mountain Road

Elysian Flame



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Runner Ratings (/10)

Hermetic (P) – 8.9/10
Excellent York debut, ideal profile for improvement.

St Faz – 8.5/10
Rock-solid current form, pace angle, proven at trip.

Pole Star (p) – 8.4/10
Back to best and dangerous if staying fully.

Anniversary – 8.2/10
Latest run gives renewed confidence.

Mountain Road – 7.8/10
Well handicapped and trip helps.

Minstrel Knight – 7.5/10
Classy enough but ground question.

Treasure Islands (P) – 7.5/10
Unexposed and still progressing.

Elysian Flame – 7.0/10
Veteran with some attractive old form.

Almuhit – 6.8/10
Capable but stronger races than ideal.

New York Minute – 6.5/10
Needs to transfer AW form to turf.

Artisan Dancer – 6.3/10
Reliable but vulnerable.

Gibside – 5.8/10
Needs dramatic revival.

Arrange – 4.8/10
Others arrive in stronger form.

Laafy – 2.0/10
Long absence and difficult to recommend.


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Private Tissue

Hermetic 23%

St Faz 16%

Pole Star 15%

Anniversary 13%

Mountain Road 8%

Minstrel Knight 7%

Treasure Islands 7%

Elysian Flame 4%

Almuhit 3%

New York Minute 2%

Artisan Dancer 1%

Gibside 1%

Arrange 0.5%

Laafy 0.5%



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Each-Way Angles (14 runners)

Best Each-Way Options

St Faz

Mountain Road

Treasure Islands


All have profiles suggesting they can hit the frame if the principals underperform.


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Summary

The race looks set up for a genuine stayer with some tactical speed. Hermetic brings the most appealing profile after an excellent York debut for Ian Williams and is open to substantial improvement over this longer trip. St Faz arrives in outstanding heart and had genuine excuses in the Chester Plate. Pole Star and Anniversary are respected, while Mountain Road appeals as a value player returning to 2m.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

1. Win Bet

Hermetic (P)

Strong British debut, unexposed, trainer excels with stayers, and the move up to 2m looks a positive.

2. Each-Way Saver

St Faz

Excellent 2026 record, favourable pace setup, proven at the trip and likely to give another solid account.