Class 4 Handicap | 1m | Good ground | 12 runners

Race Assessment

This looks a competitive fillies’ handicap containing a mix of improving 3yos and exposed older fillies. Given the conditions, the most important factors appear to be:

1. Distance suitability (1m)


2. Potential for improvement from current mark


3. Pace position around Thirsk’s turning mile


4. Current form


5. Draw/pace interaction



Pace Angle

Likely pace:

Krissy is the obvious front-runner after making all on her last two starts.

Geo can race prominently.

Bintaziza and Thankfully have shown tactical speed.

Thaluna and Renewal are usually ridden with a little more patience.


Thirsk’s mile generally favours horses able to hold a good early position rather than exaggerated hold-up performers. If Krissy gets an uncontested lead again she becomes dangerous despite the rise in grade.

Draw Angle

Over the round mile at Thirsk, extreme draw biases are usually less significant than on the straight course, but low-to-middle draws often provide tactical advantages.

Positives:

Thaluna (1)

Bridget’s View (2)

Krissy (3)

Geo (5)


Potentially trickier:

Bintaziza (11)

Alessia Fernanda (12)


However, pace can overcome draw concerns, especially if a horse is still well handicapped.


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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Bintaziza (11)

Rating: 8.5/10 (P)

Unbeaten in two AW starts and looked to have plenty left in hand both times. Opening mark of 87 is demanding enough, but Roger Varian excels with improving fillies. The wide draw is not ideal and turf is an unknown, but she is the runner with the highest upside.

Suited by track? Likely
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Unknown but pedigree suggests yes


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2. Thaluna (1)

Rating: 9/10 (p)

Strong handicap debut second at Newmarket. Stayed on particularly well over 7f and shapes as though 1m will suit perfectly. Excellent draw, progressive profile and a trainer operating at a very high strike-rate.

Suited by track? Yes
Suited by trip? Strong yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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3. Krissy (3)

Rating: 8/10

Thriving and arrives seeking a hat-trick. Has dominated weaker races from the front and gets another favourable draw. New mark asks a bigger question and this is a stronger race than Carlisle.

Suited by track? Yes
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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4. Renewal (9)

Rating: 8/10 (P)

Unexposed Beckett filly returning from 239 days off. Consistent profile and shaped on handicap debut as though dropping back from 1m2f to 1m could suit. Market support would be significant after the layoff.

Suited by track? Likely
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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5. Thankfully (8)

Rating: 7.5/10 (p)

Won a Beverley maiden on return and now makes handicap debut. Nicely bred and likely to improve further. Burke has a strong record with this type. Looks fairly treated but lacks the proven handicap form of the principals.

Suited by track? Likely
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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6. Annastarzy (4)

Rating: 5.5/10

May still have some upside from novice form but first handicap run did not suggest she is ahead of her mark.

Suited by track? Yes
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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7. Geo (5)

Rating: 6.5/10

Recent Ayr winner who has returned to form. Nicely drawn and arrives fit. More exposed than several rivals and likely requires another career best.

Suited by track? Yes
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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8. Perfect Part (7)

Rating: 7/10

Useful handicapper at her best and posted solid efforts in stronger races than this earlier in the season. Consistent rather than progressive.

Suited by track? Yes (ran well here recently)
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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9. Alessia Fernanda (12)

Rating: 5.5/10

Southwell winner after wind surgery. Wider draw and higher grade make life tougher.

Suited by track? Reasonably
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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10. Wetsand (10)

Rating: 5/10

Return to 1m should help but has not yet shown enough this season.

Suited by track? Yes
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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11. Bridget’s View (2)

Rating: 4.5/10

Well treated on some AW form but recent turf efforts are worrying.

Suited by track? Yes
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Question


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12. Mandarin Spirit (6)

Rating: 4/10

Needs substantial improvement from handicap debut effort.

Suited by track? Course winner
Suited by trip? Yes
Suited by ground? Yes


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Strongest Contenders

Thaluna (p)

Everything about the Newmarket handicap debut suggested she is ready for a mile. Strong finishing effort, favourable draw and scope for further improvement.

Bintaziza (P)

Unbeaten and potentially very well treated if translating AW form to turf. Highest ceiling in the race.

Renewal (P)

Interesting unexposed filly returning from a break for a yard that excels with this type.


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Main Dangers

Krissy

Thankfully

Perfect Part



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Interesting Outsider

Geo

Recent winner, low weight, good draw and arrives in form. Not impossible if the race becomes tactical.


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Hold-Up Risks

Thaluna may need gaps if ridden patiently from stall 1.

Renewal could be dropped in after the layoff and require luck.

Perfect Part can be ridden off the pace.



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Significant Profile Notes

Bintaziza – unbeaten, only two starts, obvious potential to improve beyond current mark.

Thaluna – highest recent RPR among the progressive runners and shaped strongly for today’s extra furlong.

Renewal – lightly raced 4yo with just five career starts.

Thankfully – handicap debutant from a yard that often improves fillies with racing.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Thaluna 4/1
Bintaziza 9/2
Renewal 13/2
Krissy 7/1
Thankfully 8/1
Perfect Part 12/1
Geo 16/1
Annastarzy 20/1
Alessia Fernanda 25/1
Wetsand 25/1
Bridget’s View 33/1
Mandarin Spirit 40/1



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Summary

The race revolves around whether the unbeaten Bintaziza can transfer her obvious AW promise to turf and whether Thaluna can build on a very encouraging handicap debut. The latter arrives with the strongest piece of recent turf handicap form and looks ideally suited by today’s mile. Renewal is the dark horse after a lengthy absence, while Krissy commands respect if allowed another easy lead.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Thaluna (9/10, p)
Strong handicap debut, ideal step up to 1m, favourable draw and likely further improvement.

Saver

Bintaziza (8.5/10, P)
Unbeaten, highly promising profile and could simply be better than her mark if handling turf.

Each-Way Alternative (12 runners, 3 places)

Renewal (8/10, P)
Unexposed and potentially ahead of her mark. Market strength before the off would be a positive signal after 239 days away.