2m3f, Conditions Chase, 5yo+, Good ground (rain around), 6 runners

Race Assessment

This is a small-field conditions chase rather than a handicap, so class and proven ratings carry more weight than usual. With only six runners, there should be no significant pace congestion and tactical positioning will be important.

Pace Angles

Eagle Fang has shown the most willingness to race prominently and could be the natural pace angle.

Blood Destiny is versatile tactically and should get a good stalking position.

Jesse Evans is usually ridden patiently enough but should not be disadvantaged in a six-runner field.

Classic Getaway is also adaptable.


With no obvious tearaway front-runner, the pace looks likely to be steady to even, favouring class horses who can quicken.

Draw Angles

Not relevant in a chase at Listowel.


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Suitability Assessment

1. Blood Destiny (8.5/10) – Proven

Profile: Proven class act.

Going: Handles good and softer ground.

Field Size: Fine in small fields.

Pace: Tactical race should suit.

Class: Strongest horse in the race.

Track: Won this race last year.

Distance: Ideal.

Trainer: Willie Mullins excels in these races.

Jockey: Paul Townend booked.


His Grade 2 second to Energumene in April is comfortably the best recent piece of form on offer. Last run in a Grade 1 can be forgiven. Returns to a level where he sets the standard despite conceding weight.

Rating: 8.5/10


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2. Jesse Evans (8/10) – Proven

Profile: Reliable high-class handicap/chase performer.

Going: Best on good ground.

Distance: Ideal around 2m3f-2m6f.

Pace: Small field removes some traffic issues.

Class: Solid at this level.

Track: No concerns.

Trainer: Noel Meade stable in good form.


Galway Plate runner-up and shaped well when third in a Grade 3 at Killarney after a break. Entitled to improve for that outing.

Rating: 8/10


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3. Eagle Fang (7.5/10) – p (Progressive)

Profile: Progressive chaser.

Going: Good ground ideal.

Distance: Suitable.

Pace: Likely pace-setter.

Class: Faces stronger opposition than usual.

Trainer: Smaller yard but horse in form.


Recent runner-up efforts in major handicap hurdles at Aintree and Haydock were excellent. Chase form remains relatively unexposed and he could still improve over fences.

Rating: 7.5/10 p


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4. Classic Getaway (6.5/10)

Profile: Proven but vulnerable.

Going: Would appreciate more rain.

Class: Well treated by race conditions.

Distance: Suitable.

Trainer: Mullins second string.


His best efforts still bring him into calculations but his form since last season’s Red Mills Chase has been patchy. Needs to bounce back.

Rating: 6.5/10


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5. Lisleigh Lad (2/10)

Profile: Honest handicapper.

Class: Major rise in grade.

Ratings leave him with plenty to find.

Small field helps but not enough.


Looks outclassed.

Rating: 2/10


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6. Itsalladream (1.5/10)

Profile: Limited at this level.

Consistently struggled in graded company.

Well held behind Jesse Evans last time.


Needs dramatic improvement.

Rating: 1.5/10


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Strongest Contenders

Blood Destiny

Last year’s winner, highest-rated horse, proven at the track and race conditions suit perfectly.

Jesse Evans

Likely to strip fitter for Killarney and receives weight from the favourite.

Eagle Fang p

Interesting improver who may not have reached his ceiling over fences.


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Main Danger

Jesse Evans

The one most likely to capitalise if Blood Destiny underperforms. Good-ground conditions are in his favour.


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Interesting Outsider

Eagle Fang p

Not really an outsider, but he is the runner with the greatest scope for improvement. Recent hurdle form stacks up strongly.


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Timeform/Profile Notes

Blood Destiny: Proven Grade performer returning to a much easier race than last time.

Jesse Evans: Galway Plate runner-up; often runs well in quality handicaps and conditions races.

Eagle Fang p: Recent Aintree and Haydock handicap hurdle efforts suggest a horse in peak form.

Classic Getaway: Capable on old form but confidence reduced by recent efforts.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Blood Destiny 44% (5/4)
Jesse Evans 28% (5/2)
Eagle Fang 17% (5/1)
Classic Getaway 9% (10/1)
Lisleigh Lad 1%
Itsalladream 1%



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Are We Weighting The Race Correctly?

For this race I would place the greatest emphasis on:

1. Class/Ratings (35%)


2. Current Form (25%)


3. Distance & Track Suitability (15%)


4. Ground Suitability (10%)


5. Pace Setup (10%)


6. Trainer/Jockey Factors (5%)



Because it is a six-runner conditions chase, tactical and draw considerations matter far less than in a large-field handicap.


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Summary

Blood Destiny has the strongest form, is the defending champion, and returns from a Grade 1 into a significantly weaker contest. Jesse Evans is respected, particularly on good ground and after an encouraging comeback run. Eagle Fang remains the intriguing improver and could get involved if transferring his recent hurdle form back to fences.

Smart Play

1st Selection – Blood Destiny (Win)

Proven class edge.

Course-and-distance winner.

Best ratings and strongest recent form.


2nd Selection – Jesse Evans (Forecast/Exacta Alternative)

Receives weight.

Likely fitter than at Killarney.

Most solid danger to the favourite.


No each-way recommendation due to the six-runner field and only two places available.