17:00 Southwell

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Enhance Your Race Day With Sponsorship Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
2m (1m7f182y), Good ground, 4yo+ (0-110)
5 runners

Race Assessment

With only five runners, this looks tactically important rather than strongly-run by default.

Pace angles

Captain Cool has been racing prominently and winning over fences. Likely to be ridden positively.

Harel Du Marais has shown the ability to race handily.

Squeezebox and Scottish Anthem have tended to be ridden with more restraint and may appreciate a genuine pace.

Pahlavi is usually ridden patiently.


In a small field, pace can be more important than draw, and there is no draw factor over hurdles. Track position and jumping efficiency are likely to matter most.

Are We Weighing This Race Correctly?

For this particular race I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Current form and fitness


2. Handicap mark versus recent performance


3. Tactical suitability in a five-runner race


4. Scope for improvement



I would place less emphasis than usual on:

Field-size suitability (small sample)

Pace collapse scenarios

Going concerns (all appear capable on good ground)





Runner-by-Runner Assessment

1. Captain Cool (Rating: 8.5/10)

Profile: Proven, in-form

A reliable performer who arrives seeking a hat-trick after back-to-back chase victories at Stratford and Plumpton. The key angle is that he returns to hurdles from a mark of 109, effectively 5lb lower than his current chase mark.

His recent RPRs of 109 and 120 suggest he remains in excellent heart. Sean Quinlan and Jennie Candlish are operating effectively, and the stable has a notably strong strike-rate.

Positives

Peak fitness

Proven at around 2m

Strong recent figures

Tactical speed for a small field

Highest recent level of form


Negatives

Switching back to hurdles

Has become exposed


Verdict: The horse they all have to beat.




2. Squeezebox (P) (Rating: 8/10)

Profile: Promising

A fair Flat winner who has won two of his three hurdle starts. Makes his handicap debut after 228 days off.

His hurdle RPR progression of 95, 108 and 113 suggests there is more to come. The opening mark of 111 looks fair rather than lenient, but he remains the runner with the greatest upside.

Tom Lacey excels with improving hurdlers and Stan Sheppard is a positive booking.

Positives

Unexposed

Winning novice hurdle profile

Handicap debut

Potentially better than current mark


Negatives

Long absence

First handicap

Small-field tactical test may not be ideal after a layoff


Verdict: Major threat if fully tuned up. Market should be watched closely.




3. Scottish Anthem (P) (Rating: 7.5/10)

Profile: Promising

Fairly useful on the Flat and shaped with encouragement when fifth at Warwick on stable debut after eight months off.

The addition of cheekpieces is interesting. Handicap debut from 110 and only lightly raced over hurdles.

His Flat ability suggests this trip should suit and Stuart Edmunds is capable of improving recruits from other yards.

Positives

Scope to improve

Handicap debut

Flat class

Expected to come on for latest run


Negatives

Still has to prove effectiveness in a competitive handicap

Needs to improve on hurdle figures


Verdict: Interesting danger with upside.




4. Harel Du Marais (Rating: 5.5/10)

Profile: Proven but vulnerable

Won over fences at Stratford in March but has disappointed on both starts since.

Returns to hurdles from a workable mark and has previous course-and-distance credentials, but recent form is difficult to ignore.

Positives

Course winner

James Bowen booked

Has back-class


Negatives

Recent form poor

Limited evidence of resurgence


Verdict: Needs a revival.




5. Pahlavi (Rating: 4.5/10)

Profile: Exposed

Won a handicap hurdle last year but recent chase efforts have been disappointing.

Returns to hurdles and receives a useful 5lb claim, but his recent ratings leave him with plenty to find.

Positives

Back over hurdles

Claim helps


Negatives

Poor recent form

Vulnerable against progressive rivals


Verdict: Others have stronger credentials.




Contenders

Strongest Contenders

1. Captain Cool


2. Squeezebox (P)


3. Scottish Anthem (P)



Main Dangers

Squeezebox

Scottish Anthem


Interesting Outsider

Harel Du Marais





Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Captain Cool 34% (15/8)
Squeezebox 28% (5/2)
Scottish Anthem 20% (4/1)
Harel Du Marais 10% (9/1)
Pahlavi 8% (11/1)





Timeform/Profile Notes

Captain Cool – proven and thriving; recent chase form sets the standard.

Squeezebox (P) – lightly raced, open to further progress; handicap debutant.

Scottish Anthem (P) – encouraging stable debut and expected to improve.

Harel Du Marais – proven but recent figures below best.

Pahlavi – needs a significant revival.




Summary

This revolves around whether the progressive handicap newcomers can match the battle-hardened and race-fit Captain Cool.

Captain Cool arrives with the strongest current form, is effectively well treated back over hurdles and should enjoy the likely tactical shape of the race.

Squeezebox is the obvious danger if returning in peak condition after his absence, while Scottish Anthem remains a potential improver on handicap debut.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Captain Cool – strongest recent form, race fitness, and potentially well treated reverting to hurdles.

Saver

Squeezebox (P) – promising handicap debutant with the most obvious scope for improvement if ready after the layoff.

No each-way recommendation as the race has only five runners.

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