1m (1m5y), Tapeta, 4yo+, OR 0-75, 12 runners

Race shape, pace and draw

Newcastle’s straight mile generally places less emphasis on draw than many AW tracks, although a very low draw can occasionally leave hold-up horses needing gaps at the right time. Pace tends to be more important than stall position.

Looking through the field:

Flying Fletcher is the most obvious pace angle and has previously made all over C&D.

Military Leader can race prominently and has been winning from positive positions.

Alessia Fernanda and Barry’s Boy are usually not far away.

Quiet Resolve can sit handy but isn’t dependent on forcing matters.

Several others (Second Fiddle, Criminal Shore, Cusack) are generally ridden with patience.


The likely scenario is an even rather than frenetic pace, which could favour those racing handily rather than deep closers.


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Are we weighing the race correctly?

For this race I would place greatest emphasis on:

1. Current form and handicap mark


2. Newcastle/Tapeta suitability


3. Pace position


4. Distance suitability


5. Trainer form


6. Draw



This is a Class 5 handicap where proven AW form and current wellbeing are often more reliable indicators than pure ratings alone.


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Runner-by-runner assessment

1. Military Leader – 8.5/10 (p)

Going: 9/10
Track: 8/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 8/10

Arrives seeking a hat-trick after wins at Southwell and Thirsk. Newcastle form figures prior to those wins were solid and he remains progressive. Has gone up 10lb for the two victories but his profile suggests he’s still improving. Prominent style should suit the likely race setup.

Verdict: Proven, progressive and a major player.


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2. Barry’s Boy – 8/10

Going: 9/10
Track: 9/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 8/10

C&D winner in March and held his own in a stronger Class 4 subsequently. Very solid Newcastle profile and likely to run his race again. Doesn’t look especially well treated but is dependable.

Verdict: Strong contender, likely to be thereabouts.


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3. Flying Fletcher – 7.5/10

Going: 9/10
Track: 9/10
Distance: 8/10
Class: 8/10

Interesting pace angle. His best ratings have often come at shorter distances but he has won over this C&D. The 5lb claim helps and a return to AW is positive. Risk remains that he misses the break.

Verdict: Dangerous if securing an uncontested lead.


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4. Alessia Fernanda – 7.5/10 (p)

Going: 9/10
Track: 8/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 8/10

Made a successful return from wind surgery at Southwell and looked revitalised. Only 4lb higher. The stable is not firing at full strength but this race looks suitable.

Verdict: Serious danger if building on latest win.


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5. Quiet Resolve – 8.5/10 (p)

Going: 8/10
Track: 9/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 8/10

The Racing Post selection and with good reason. Won on stable debut, then ran an excellent second carrying a penalty behind a race-fit rival. Proven Newcastle performer and remains fairly treated.

The low draw isn’t ideal but Newcastle’s straight mile mitigates that concern somewhat.

Verdict: Progressive profile and one of the most interesting runners.


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6. Second Fiddle – 6/10

Going: 9/10
Track: 10/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 7/10

Five-time C&D winner. On track credentials alone she’d rate higher, but recent form is poor and she often starts slowly. Could outrun odds back at her favourite venue.

Verdict: Outsider with course credentials but needs revival.


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7. Criminal Shore – 6.5/10

Going: 8/10
Track: 8/10
Distance: 8/10
Class: 7/10

Consistent without winning. Handicap mark continues to ease and Paul Mulrennan is a notable booking. However, he often finds one or two too strong.

Verdict: Place claims stronger than win claims.


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8. American State – 6.5/10

Going: 8/10
Track: 7/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 7/10

Two wins following wind surgery earlier this year. Forgive latest run and he becomes more interesting. Still looks vulnerable to stronger recent improvers.

Verdict: Capable of making the frame.


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9. Bellasio – 5.5/10

Going: 8/10
Track: 7/10
Distance: 8/10
Class: 6/10

Excellent spell last year but hasn’t looked the same this season. Well handicapped on old form but needs to show more.

Verdict: Watching brief.


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10. Chuzzlewit – 4.5/10

Going: 8/10
Track: 8/10
Distance: 8/10
Class: 6/10

Well treated compared with historical ratings but continues to regress. Hard to recommend on recent evidence.

Verdict: Others preferred.


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11. Sunriseontheboyne – 4.5/10

Going: 7/10
Track: 6/10
Distance: 8/10
Class: 6/10

Well handicapped versus Irish form but has shown little for current connections. Needs a dramatic revival.

Verdict: Difficult to support.


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12. Cusack – 3.5/10

Going: 8/10
Track: 10/10
Distance: 9/10
Class: 5/10

Veteran with a terrific Newcastle record but current form is very weak. The claim helps and fitness should improve from his comeback.

Verdict: Course specialist but hard to fancy.


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Strongest contenders

Quiet Resolve (p)

Progressive for new stable.

Proven Newcastle performer.

Recent form working out well.

Still looks fairly handicapped.


Military Leader (p)

Arrives in peak form.

Chasing a hat-trick.

Strong pace profile.


Barry’s Boy

Reliable C&D winner.

Consistent ratings.

Likely to give another solid account.



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Main dangers

Alessia Fernanda (p) – revived after wind surgery.

Flying Fletcher – biggest pace threat if allowed an easy lead.



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Interesting outsiders

Second Fiddle

Five C&D wins and drops into a suitable Class 5. Needs everything to click but has stronger track credentials than many outsiders.

Criminal Shore

Running consistently enough to sneak into the places if the race becomes tactical.


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Hold-up risks needing luck

Second Fiddle

Criminal Shore

Cusack


These runners may need gaps and a stronger pace than appears likely.


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Private tissue

Horse Tissue

Quiet Resolve 4/1
Military Leader 9/2
Barry’s Boy 11/2
Alessia Fernanda 13/2
Flying Fletcher 15/2
Criminal Shore 12/1
American State 14/1
Second Fiddle 16/1
Bellasio 20/1
Sunriseontheboyne 25/1
Chuzzlewit 28/1
Cusack 40/1



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Summary

This looks a competitive Class 5 mile handicap but the race appears to revolve around the recent improvers. Military Leader is thriving and commands obvious respect in pursuit of a hat-trick, while Barry’s Boy brings solid C&D credentials.

The horse whose profile appeals most is Quiet Resolve, who has improved significantly since joining Alan Brown and remains attractively treated relative to his recent efforts. His Newcastle record is reassuring and his latest Hamilton second looks strong form for the grade.

With 12 runners, each-way terms apply, and Alessia Fernanda looks the most interesting each-way alternative after her successful return from wind surgery.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win: Quiet Resolve (p)

Each-way saver: Alessia Fernanda (p)

Main danger: Military Leader (p)