1m, Good to Soft, 4yo+ (0-70), 14 runners

Ripon’s mile start gives a relatively short run to the bend and draw can matter, particularly when the ground is riding slower. Low to middle draws often hold a slight advantage if riders can secure early position. With several habitual prominent racers entered, the pace looks fair rather than overly strong.

Pace Assessment

Likely pace angles:

Avatar Jet – has made the running successfully.

Travis – natural front-runner.

Barley – often races prominently.

Perfidia – can sit handy.

Havana Touch – generally races close enough to the speed.


A genuinely run race looks likely. That should suit strong travellers who can obtain cover and produce a finishing effort late.

Draw Assessment

Best positioned: Jesmond Dawn (1), Havana Touch (2), The New Bay Pearl (3), The Childe Of Hale (4), Eeetee (5).

The widest stalls (12-14) may need luck or positive tactics to avoid covering extra ground around the bend.


—

Are We Weighing This Race Correctly?

For this contest I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Track suitability (Ripon) – a specialist track where positioning matters.


2. Ground suitability (Good to Soft) – several key contenders have achieved their recent best form on quicker ground.


3. Pace/draw interaction – important around Ripon’s turning mile.


4. Current handicap mark – many of these are exposed handicappers and small differences in marks matter.


5. Recent form and race fitness.



Less emphasis than normal on class, as most arrive from the same grade range.


—

Leading Contenders

Superfortress (P)

Very lightly raced and still has upside. Unlucky second at Beverley when denied a clear run and remains open to improvement after only five career starts. Main concern is the softer ground, as all his best form has come on quicker surfaces or AW.

Amidst The Chaos

Twice denied a clear run in recent starts, including over this C&D. Ripon experience is a positive and his recent figures suggest he remains well treated. Another who would not want traffic problems.

Avatar Jet (p)

Southwell form has worked out strongly and his recent profile is attractive. The likely pace setup suits and his rider’s claim effectively reduces the burden. Turf return is the key question but he has won on grass before.

Havana Touch

Excellent AW campaign this spring. Low draw is a major positive. If reproducing that AW level on turf he is a serious player.

Kiss Me My Love (p)

Arrives in winning form and has already shown she handles softer ground. Consistent recent profile and still fairly treated despite a 3lb rise.


—

Main Dangers

Barley

Running off a career-low mark and went very close at Hamilton last week. Proven under conditions and versatile regarding ground. However, 47 runs and only three wins suggest he often finds one too good.

Perfidia (p)

In-form Tim Easterby runner who has been knocking on the door. Course winner and handles ease in the ground. Wide draw not ideal but enters calculations.

Donna Nook

Capable at this level but has had chances recently and has become difficult to win with.


—

Interesting Outsiders

Jesmond Dawn

Returns from 117 days off but has gone well fresh before. Nicely drawn and now on a workable mark. Market support would be significant.

The Childe Of Hale

Won off this mark last year. Needs to improve sharply on his comeback effort but conditions are not unsuitable.


—

Hold-Up Horses Needing Luck

Amidst The Chaos – repeatedly suffered traffic issues.

Superfortress – likes to travel into races and can require gaps.

Jesmond Dawn – often delivered late.


In a 14-runner mile handicap at Ripon, luck in running remains a significant factor.


—

Trainer Notes

Tim Easterby runs both Barley and Perfidia, and his horses are operating well.

Roger Fell has Kiss Me My Love in excellent current form.

Ruth Carr’s Superfortress remains one of the more interesting unexposed runners.



—

Runner Ratings (/10)

1. Superfortress (P) – 8.5/10

Unexposed, progressive profile, unlucky latest run. Ground is the question.

2. Amidst The Chaos – 8.5/10

Strong recent form and proven at Ripon. Needs luck.

3. Havana Touch – 8/10

Excellent recent AW form. Low draw boosts appeal.

4. Avatar Jet (p) – 8/10

Recent form working out well. Dangerous if translating it back to turf.

5. Kiss Me My Love (p) – 8/10

Arrives in form and handles conditions.

6. Barley – 7.5/10

Solid, reliable, handicapped to be competitive.

7. Perfidia (p) – 7.5/10

In-form and weighted to go well.

8. Donna Nook – 6.5/10

Capable but vulnerable.

9. Jesmond Dawn – 6.5/10

Interesting fresh horse from a good draw.

10. Yafaarr – 6/10

Yet to prove as effective on turf.

11. The Childe Of Hale – 5.5/10

Needs revival.

12. Travis – 5/10

Bounce-back required after latest effort.

13. Eeetee – 4/10

Long absence and poor finish to last season.

14. The New Bay Pearl – 2/10

Little recent encouragement.


—

Private Tissue

Superfortress 13%

Amidst The Chaos 13%

Havana Touch 12%

Avatar Jet 11%

Kiss Me My Love 11%

Barley 10%

Perfidia 9%

Donna Nook 6%

Jesmond Dawn 5%

Yafaarr 4%

The Childe Of Hale 3%

Travis 2%

Eeetee 1%

The New Bay Pearl 0.5%


Equivalent fair odds:

Superfortress 7.7/1

Amidst The Chaos 7.7/1

Havana Touch 8.3/1

Avatar Jet 9/1

Kiss Me My Love 9/1

Barley 10/1

Perfidia 11/1



—

Summary

This looks a deep Class 5 handicap where recent form, track position and luck in running should be decisive. The pace appears honest and several contenders have excuses attached to recent defeats.

Superfortress brings the most upside and remains open to improvement after only a handful of starts. Amidst The Chaos has arguably been unlucky enough to have won one of his last two starts and is very dangerous if obtaining a clear passage. Avatar Jet, Havana Touch and Kiss Me My Love complete a strong shortlist.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Superfortress (P)
Unexposed profile, strong Beverley run despite trouble, and still looks capable of better than a mark of 70.

Second Bet

Amidst The Chaos
Course form, repeatedly unlucky in running, and conditions look suitable if he gets the breaks.

Each-Way Saver (14 runners)

Avatar Jet (p)
Recent Southwell form has substance and his profile suggests further progress remains possible from this mark. Market support would strengthen confidence.