JMI Planning 10 Years In Business Mares’ Handicap Chase (ARC Summer Chase Qualifier) Class 4 Handicap Chase | 3m 10y | Good Ground | 4 runners | Mares 5yo+ | Ratings 0-120

Race Assessment

With only four runners, many of the usual draw and pace considerations are largely irrelevant. Uttoxeter’s 3m chase course generally rewards efficient jumping and stamina, particularly when the pace is only even rather than strong.

Pace Angles

Regal Renaissance has raced prominently in small fields and could be close to the pace.

That’s Nice has enough tactical speed from shorter trips and may also race handily.

Queens Wish and I Am The Moon are usually ridden more patiently.


In a four-runner contest, tactical positioning becomes more important than raw pace figures. There is a possibility of a steadily-run race, which may favour those with tactical speed rather than pure stayers.


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Factor Analysis

Going Suitability (Good)

Regal Renaissance: Proven winner on good. Positive.

That’s Nice: Handles good ground well. Positive.

Queens Wish: Has won and run well on similar ground. Positive.

I Am The Moon: Form suggests some ease may help but acts on good. Neutral-positive.


Field Size Suitability

Small-field form is particularly relevant.

Regal Renaissance: Excellent recent efforts in 4-5 runner races.

That’s Nice: Recent best chase run came in a 4-runner race here.

Queens Wish: Plenty of small-field experience.

I Am The Moon: No obvious advantage from a tactical four-runner race.


Forecast Pace Suitability

Regal Renaissance may get a comfortable stalking trip.

That’s Nice also likely to be well positioned.

Queens Wish vulnerable if pace is steady.

I Am The Moon may need a stronger test.


Class Suitability

That’s Nice has contested stronger races than this.

Regal Renaissance looks well treated in Class 4 company.

Queens Wish proven at this level.

I Am The Moon needs to show more over fences.


Track Suitability

That’s Nice already ran respectably at Uttoxeter.

Others have no strong negatives for the track.


Distance Suitability

This is the key race factor.

Queens Wish is proven around 3m.

I Am The Moon has stayed 3m2f over hurdles.

That’s Nice is unexposed at this trip and bred to stay.

Regal Renaissance remains the least certain stayer; all recent chase form has come around 2m4f-2m5f.


Temperament / Jumping

Regal Renaissance generally reliable.

That’s Nice has not always convinced over fences.

I Am The Moon has an UR and a PU on her chase record.

Queens Wish tends to run her race.


Trainer & Jockey

Sean Bowen / Jack Jones is a major positive combination.

Harry Cobden / Nicky Henderson commands respect.

Nigel Twiston-Davies yard capable but horse needs improvement.

Pogson yard in decent form and capable of placing handicappers effectively.



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Are We Weighing The Race Correctly?

Yes, but in this race stamina should carry greater weight than ratings.

The market and ratings naturally focus on Regal Renaissance and That’s Nice, but neither has conclusively proven herself over this trip.

For this particular contest I would weight:

1. Distance suitability


2. Current form


3. Jumping reliability


4. Tactical position


5. Official ratings



more heavily than normal.


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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Regal Renaissance — 8.5/10 (Proven)

Adjusted Rating: 121

Recent Ludlow winner who arrives in form and joins a yard operating at a healthy strike-rate. Strong recent RPRs and likely to get a favourable tactical trip. The concern is whether she truly wants a strongly-run 3m.

Verdict: Strong contender but stamina not fully proven.


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2. That’s Nice — 8/10 (P)

Adjusted Rating: 120

Highest-rated horse in the field. Chase career has not developed as expected but she remains lightly raced over fences and shaped reasonably when third here last month. The step up to 3m could unlock improvement.

Verdict: Most likely improver in the race.


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3. Queens Wish — 7.5/10 (Proven)

Adjusted Rating: 114

Solid stayer who has won from today’s mark. Disappointing latest run but her Warwick third in a valuable mares’ race two starts ago reads well. If the principals fail to stay she could capitalise.

Verdict: Main danger and value alternative.


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4. I Am The Moon — 6.5/10 (p)

Adjusted Rating: 109

Returned to form over hurdles last time and is fairly treated if reproducing her best hurdle form. However, she still has something to prove over fences.

Verdict: Needs a career-best chase performance.


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Strongest Contenders

Regal Renaissance

Best recent form.

Excellent Sean Bowen booking.

Well treated if staying.


That’s Nice (P)

Highest ceiling.

Unexposed over staying trips.

Strong connections.


Main Danger

Queens Wish

Proven stayer.

Well handicapped.

Could be underestimated if race becomes an attritional test.


Interesting Outsider

I Am The Moon (p)

Recent hurdle effort was encouraging.

Stamina assured.

Needs improvement over fences.



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Private Tissue

Regal Renaissance — 31%

That’s Nice — 29%

Queens Wish — 24%

I Am The Moon — 16%


Equivalent prices:

Regal Renaissance 3.2

That’s Nice 3.45

Queens Wish 4.2

I Am The Moon 6.25



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Summary

A fascinating tactical contest despite the small field. Regal Renaissance brings the strongest recent form and has the assistance of Sean Bowen for a stable debut, but this is her first real test at 3m. That’s Nice has been disappointing over fences but remains the most likely runner to improve significantly for the trip. Queens Wish is the proven stayer and may be the one picking up the pieces if the market principals fail to see out the distance.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Regal Renaissance – strongest recent profile, excellent jockey booking, arrives in peak form.

Alternative Win Bet / Saver

That’s Nice (P) – unexposed stayer from a top yard and the runner with the most scope for improvement at the trip.

No each-way recommendation as the race is a four-runner win-only contest.