1m4f, Yielding, Listed, 3yo only
Runners: 4 (Emmeleia NR)

Race Assessment

With only four runners declared after the withdrawal of Emmeleia, this is a tactical Listed contest rather than a strongly-run staying test.

Pace Suitability

There is no obvious confirmed front-runner. Small-field Leopardstown races can become steadily run affairs, placing an emphasis on tactical speed and jockeyship rather than outright stamina.

Endorsement has shown the ability to travel and quicken in Pattern company.

Amadeus Mozart may appreciate a steadier pace given he has looked a little one-paced over shorter trips.

The two fillies may struggle if this turns into a sprint from the home turn.


Draw Suitability

With only four runners, draw bias is largely irrelevant. Positioning and race tactics will matter much more than stall allocation.

Going Suitability

Yielding ground should suit Endorsement particularly well given his strong juvenile form on softer surfaces and solid Leopardstown efforts this spring.

Distance Suitability

This is arguably the key factor.

Endorsement shapes as though 1m4f will suit.

Amadeus Mozart has been crying out for further than 1m2f.

Yousaynothingatall has won over 10½f and should stay.

So Must I has won at 10½f but has yet to show Pattern-race ability.



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Contenders

Endorsement (Rating: 9.5/10) p

Progressive

Suitability Assessment

Going: 9/10

Distance: 9/10

Class: 10/10

Track: 10/10

Trainer: 10/10

Jockey: 10/10


The clear class act.

His form ties directly into the strongest Irish Derby trials. He finished second to current Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini, was runner-up to Pierre Bonnard in the Zetland Stakes, then produced two solid Leopardstown Group-race efforts this season.

His latest Derby Trial third behind James J Braddock and Pierre Bonnard is comfortably the best piece of form on offer.

Official rating, Timefigure and RPR all place him well clear of these rivals.

The only slight concern is the possibility of a tactical race, but Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien are unlikely to allow that to become an issue.


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Amadeus Mozart (Rating: 7.5/10) P

Promising

Suitability Assessment

Going: 8/10

Distance: 9/10

Class: 7/10

Track: 7/10

Trainer: 10/10

Jockey: 9/10


Looks the most likely danger.

Won a Curragh maiden and returned this spring with a respectable second behind Maho Bay at Newmarket. He was then disappointing in the Gallinule Stakes but shaped as if further would help.

The move up to 1m4f could unlock improvement and he remains lightly raced enough to have more to offer than his current figures suggest.

Still needs to find around 10lb on known form with Endorsement.


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Yousaynothingatall (Rating: 5.5/10) p

Progressive

Suitability Assessment

Going: 8/10

Distance: 8/10

Class: 4/10

Track: 5/10

Trainer: 8/10

Jockey: 8/10


Progressive filly but faces a substantial rise in class.

Maiden winner at Cork and receives the fillies’ allowance, but her ratings leave her with plenty to find against the two Ballydoyle colts.

May benefit if the race becomes tactical and could nick second if one of the principals underperforms.


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So Must I (Rating: 3/10) p

Progressive at handicap level

Suitability Assessment

Going: 7/10

Distance: 8/10

Class: 2/10

Track: 5/10

Trainer: 8/10

Jockey: 7/10


Won a modest Dundalk conditions race and has not backed it up in turf handicaps.

Her RPRs and overall profile leave her well short of Listed standard.

Needs dramatic improvement.


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Adjusted Ratings

1. Endorsement – 9.5/10 (p)


2. Amadeus Mozart – 7.5/10 (P)


3. Yousaynothingatall – 5.5/10 (p)


4. So Must I – 3/10 (p)




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Private Tissue

Endorsement — 1/3 (75%)

Amadeus Mozart — 11/4 (27%)

Yousaynothingatall — 10/1 (9%)

So Must I — 33/1 (3%)


(Percentages overlap slightly due to race uncertainty and tactical factors.)


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Are We Weighing This Race Correctly?

For this particular contest, class and proven Pattern-race form deserve significantly more weight than pace, draw or handicap-style profiling.

Suggested weighting:

Class/Form Lines: 35%

Distance Suitability: 20%

Track Suitability: 15%

Going Suitability: 10%

Progression Potential: 10%

Pace Scenario: 5%

Trainer/Jockey: 5%


The Derby-trial form simply towers over the opposition and should dominate the analysis.


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Race Preview

A small-field Listed race in which the withdrawal of Emmeleia has left Endorsement with a major opportunity to gain a deserved black-type success. His Leopardstown Derby-trial form links him with some of the best middle-distance three-year-olds in training and his latest third behind James J Braddock and Pierre Bonnard sets the standard comfortably.

Stablemate Amadeus Mozart remains the unknown quantity. He has raced only three times and shapes as though stepping up to 1m4f will bring improvement. If any horse can trouble the favourite, it is likely to be him.

Joseph O’Brien’s pair Yousaynothingatall and So Must I have progressive profiles but their ratings and achievements leave them with a sizeable gap to bridge.


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Smart Plays

Win Bet

Endorsement
The strongest proven form, best ratings, ideal trip and outstanding Leopardstown credentials.

Saver

Amadeus Mozart
The only runner with realistic scope to improve enough to challenge the favourite if the extra distance unlocks further progress.

Predicted Finish:

1. Endorsement


2. Amadeus Mozart


3. Yousaynothingatall


4. So Must I