1m, Yielding, 17 runners, 3yo Handicap

Race Assessment

This looks a competitive 3yo handicap containing a mix of:

Recent handicap improvers (Chirac, Nicky Larson)

Potentially well-treated handicap debutants (Almeiyda, Cosmic Funk, Themis)

Exposed types whose marks are becoming workable (Balance Of Trade, Wicklow Gap)


Pace Analysis

There is no obvious abundance of confirmed front-runners.

Possible pace influences:

Two And Two (made all previously over 6f)

Glamazon (forced much of the pace at the Curragh)

Chirac has been ridden patiently.

Nicky Larson tracked pace when second at Limerick.


A steadily-run race is possible, which could favour:

Horses drawn low-to-middle

Horses capable of holding a position rather than extreme hold-up performers


Draw Analysis

At Leopardstown over 1m on yielding ground:

Low-to-middle draws are generally preferable.

Wide stalls can overcome bias if pace develops, but they require extra tactical luck.


Positives:

Nicky Larson (1)

Down The Glen (2)

Only One Scobie (3)

Bear Right (4)

Cosmic Funk (5)

Chirac (6)


Negatives:

Wicklow Gap (16)

Jp’s Express (17)

De Songbird (15)


Which Factors Matter Most Here?

For this race I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Handicap mark suitability


2. Ability to improve from current rating


3. Draw and tactical position


4. Going suitability


5. Track suitability



Less emphasis:

Trainer records

Historical class form


This is a typical developing 3yo handicap where progression is often more important than established ratings.


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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Chirac (p)

8.5/10

Progressive handicapper.

Strong Gowran win over 7f on soft.

Looks likely to stay 1m.

Fair 7lb rise.

Good draw.


Concerns:

Must prove effectiveness at full mile.



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2. Nicky Larson (P)

8/10

Excellent handicap debut second at Limerick.

Draw 1 ideal.

Effectively lower with 7lb claim.

Lightly raced profile.


Concerns:

Still a maiden.



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3. Almeiyda (P)

8/10

Interesting handicap debutante.

Weld yard.

RPRs suggest current mark may underestimate ability.

Mile could prove ideal.


Concerns:

Top weight.

First handicap start.


Market support would be highly significant.


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4. Glamazon (p)

6.5/10

Genuine filly.

Maiden winner.

Drops in grade after stronger Curragh race.


Concerns:

Has looked vulnerable against improvers.



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5. Balance Of Trade

7/10

Strong eye-catcher on Monday.

Unlucky run.

Bottom weight.


Concerns:

11-race maiden.

Officially 3lb wrong.


Each-way claims.


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6. Bear Right

4.5/10

Some juvenile form.


Concerns:

Handicap efforts underwhelming.

Needs significant revival.



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7. Cosmic Funk (P)

7/10

Handicap debut.

Lyons stable.

RPRs suggest workable mark.


Concerns:

Hasn’t yet shown obvious improvement.


Interesting market watch runner.


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8. Down The Glen

7.5/10

Proven winner.

Drop back from 1m2f should suit.

Handles ease in ground.


Concerns:

Career-high mark.



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9. Two And Two

5.5/10

Speedy profile.

Returns from 81-day break.


Concerns:

Must prove stamina for this trip.


Market important.


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10. Love Orchid

4.5/10

First-time cheekpieces.


Concerns:

Handicap form weak.

Needs dramatic improvement.



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11. Only One Scobie

2/10

Difficult to recommend on current evidence.



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12. Themis (P)

6.5/10

Powerful connections.

Handicap debut.

Opening mark may underestimate ability.


Concerns:

Very little shown so far.


Market crucial.


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13. Cameclose

4/10

Return to shorter trip helps.


Concerns:

Profile lacks progression.



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14. Wicklow Gap (p)

7/10

Best recent run at Roscommon.

Unlucky in running.

Tongue-tie retained.


Concerns:

Stall 16 makes life difficult.



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15. Jp’s Express

3.5/10

New trip may help.


Concerns:

Wide draw.

Little recent evidence.



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16. No More Hiding (P)

4.5/10

Turf debut.

Billy Lee booked.


Concerns:

142-day absence.

Needs major improvement.


Watch market closely.


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17. De Songbird (P)

3.5/10

Handicap debut.


Concerns:

Wide draw.

Limited maiden form.



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Strongest Contenders

Chirac (p)

Recent winner who looks capable of coping with the rise and should stay the mile.

Nicky Larson (P)

Very solid handicap debut effort and receives significant assistance from the 7lb claim.

Almeiyda (P)

Potentially the most interesting handicap newcomer in the field.


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Main Dangers

Down The Glen

Cosmic Funk (P)

Wicklow Gap (p)

Balance Of Trade



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Interesting Outsiders

Balance Of Trade

One of the strongest recent eye-catchers in the race and very attractively weighted.

Wicklow Gap

Roscommon run reads well but draw makes things harder.


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Hold-Up Risks Needing Luck

Chirac

Balance Of Trade

Wicklow Gap


In a 17-runner field around Leopardstown’s mile start, those running styles create traffic risks.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Chirac 4/1
Nicky Larson 5/1
Almeiyda 6/1
Down The Glen 8/1
Cosmic Funk 10/1
Balance Of Trade 11/1
Wicklow Gap 12/1
Glamazon 14/1
Themis 14/1
Two And Two 18/1
Bear Right 22/1
Love Orchid 25/1
No More Hiding 25/1
Cameclose 28/1
Jp’s Express 33/1
De Songbird 40/1
Only One Scobie 66/1



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Summary

The race revolves around whether Chirac can continue his progression from a favourable draw and stay the extra furlong. Nicky Larson produced one of the strongest handicap debut efforts in the field and has an ideal inside draw. Almeiyda is the most intriguing handicap newcomer and may have been given a fair opening mark by the assessor.

For each-way purposes in this 17-runner field, Balance Of Trade appeals after a notably unlucky run at Gowran and remains attractively weighted.

Smart Play

Win Bet

Chirac (p)

Progressive, proven on soft/yielding ground, favourable draw, and likely still ahead of the handicapper.

Saver / Each-Way

Balance Of Trade

Unlucky latest, strong finishing effort, bottom-weight profile and could easily outrun market expectations if obtaining a cleaner passage.

Alternative Win Threat

Nicky Larson (P)

The best value among the principals if building on his excellent handicap debut and making full use of stall 1.