Class 2, 4yo+, 1m½f, good to soft, 18 runners

Big-field Epsom handicaps reward balance, tactical speed and track position. Low-to-middle draws look preferable, especially for horses able to race handy. Wide-drawn hold-up types need luck. Pace should be honest: Asmen Warrior, Mister Winston, Mr Swivell and Sterling Knight can go forward, with Man Of La Mancha well placed to track them from stall 2.

Strongest contenders

Man Of La Mancha — 8.5/10 p
Well drawn, tactically versatile, handles soft and good ground, and unlucky at Newbury. Proven at 1m/1m1f and still improving. Major player.

Celeborn — 8/10 P
C&D winner, handles good to soft, lightly raced and cheekpieces could help. Strong RPR of 110 and clear upside, though hanging latest is a small concern.

Stem — 7.5/10 P
Unexposed, strong RPR 113, shaped well over 1m on good to soft. Wide draw 14 is the worry.

Asmen Warrior — 7.5/10 p
Consistent, well drawn, forward-going and future OR +4. Soft ground is the question, but blinkers may sharpen him.

Main dangers

Mister Winston — 7/10 p
Useful front-runner with Oisin Murphy booked. Needs to prove good to soft suits.

Principality — 7/10
Recent winner, handles testing ground, still fairly treated. Solid rather than flashy.

Mirsky — 6.5/10
Won this race last year and arrives after a Thirsk Hunt Cup win. Higher mark and tougher renewal.

Sterling Knight — 6.5/10
In-form, well drawn, Ryan Moore booked. Career-high mark asks more.

Interesting outsiders

Thunder Roar — 6/10
Soft-ground specialist; rain helps. Needs market check with Colin Keane booked.

Mr Swivell — 6/10
Has soft-ground form and a peak RPR of 108, but two poor recent runs make him risky.

Hot Cash — 6/10
Course winner and back near form latest, but previous C&D run was poor.

Runner scores

Ozat — 4/10
Celeborn — 8/10 P
Asmen Warrior — 7.5/10 p
Man Of La Mancha — 8.5/10 p
Stem — 7.5/10 P
Mister Winston — 7/10 p
Hot Cash — 6/10
Principality — 7/10
Sterling Knight — 6.5/10
Bragbor — 5.5/10 P
Mirsky — 6.5/10
Jimmy Speaking — 6/10 p
Mr Swivell — 6/10
Popmaster — 5.5/10
Thunder Roar — 6/10
Final Night — 5/10 p
Walsingham — 5/10
Nizam — 4/10

Private tissue view

Man Of La Mancha 13%
Celeborn 12%
Stem 10%
Asmen Warrior 10%
Mister Winston 8%
Principality 7%
Mirsky 6%
Sterling Knight 6%
Thunder Roar 5%
Hot Cash 5%
Others 18% combined

Market watch advised for the Ian Williams pair after British debuts, and for any runner returning from a break or attracting late support. No 90+ day layoffs stand out from the supplied card.

Smart Play

Win: Man Of La Mancha — best blend of draw, ground, pace position, profile and proven handicap form.
Each-way saver: Celeborn — unexposed C&D winner with upside, provided he settles and handles the track again.