Class 5 Handicap | 1m6f | Good | 4yo+ | 8 runners

Race Shape, Pace & Draw

Bath’s extended 1m6f start gives runners time to find position, but the track remains idiosyncratic with its undulations and downhill sections. Proven Bath form is a significant positive.

Likely pace:

Taritino is the obvious pace angle and made all in this race previously.

Abando made the running at Nottingham two days ago and may go forward again.

No More Bolero usually races prominently.

Lusaka tends to sit just behind the pace.

Kotari and Curran can be ridden more patiently.


With Taritino and Abando likely to force matters, the pace should be at least honest rather than steadily run.

Draw: At this trip the draw is less influential than over shorter distances. Low numbers can save ground early but pace and track suitability matter considerably more.


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Factor Analysis

1. Going Suitability

No More Bolero – Proven on good/good-firm. Strong positive.

Lusaka – Effective on good ground. Positive.

Taritino – Ground ideal. Positive.

Kotari – Handles good ground. Positive.

Percy Jones – Ground fine but other concerns.

Abando – No obvious issue.

Golden Garden – Fine on good.

Curran – Ground suitable.


2. Field Size Suitability

Smallish field of eight should suit:

No More Bolero

Lusaka

Taritino

Kotari


Less chance of traffic problems than in larger handicaps.

3. Forecast Pace Suitability

Lusaka looks particularly well positioned tracking the leaders.

No More Bolero also gets a suitable setup.

Taritino dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead.

Hold-up runners have less pace collapse to target.


4. Draw Suitability

Little separation at this trip.

Slight preference to Kotari (1), Taritino (2) and Abando (3) if they secure position cheaply.


5. Pace & Draw Interaction

Taritino (2) ideally housed to attack.

Abando (3) can get across and lead if desired.

Lusaka (4) gets ideal stalking position.

No More Bolero (7) should still secure a handy position.


6. Class Suitability

No More Bolero proven at this level.

Lusaka proven.

Taritino well treated on best form and has stronger hurdle form recently.

Kotari now looks attractively handicapped.


7. Track Suitability

This is one of the biggest factors in this race.

Strong positives

No More Bolero (Bath winner)

Lusaka (dual C&D winner)

Taritino (won this race in 2024)


Others have no comparable Bath credentials.

8. Distance Suitability

Lusaka – Proven stayer.

No More Bolero – Proven beyond this trip.

Taritino – Proven.

Kotari – Worth another chance at the trip.

Golden Garden – Trip fine but needs more ability.


9. Temperament Suitability

No More Bolero generally reliable.

Lusaka reliable.

Taritino straightforward front-runner.

Kotari remains a little harder to trust after latest run.


10. Trainer Suitability

James Owen continues to operate at a notably strong strike-rate.

Joe Tickle places stayers effectively.

John & Rhys Flint have their horses running consistently.


11. Jockey Suitability

Rose Dawes’ 5lb claim is valuable aboard Lusaka.

William Carson knows Bath exceptionally well.

Taylor Fisher suits prominent tactics aboard Taritino.



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Are We Weighing This Race Correctly?

For this contest I would place the greatest emphasis on:

1. Track suitability


2. Stamina at the trip


3. Current handicap mark


4. Likely pace position


5. Recent form



Bath specialists often outperform their ratings here. Therefore I would slightly increase the weighting given to proven Bath form compared with a typical Class 5 staying handicap.


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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. No More Bolero – 8.5/10 (p)

Bath winner in April and would have strong claims on that effort. The latest Ripon run is easily excused after slipping on the bend. Proven stayer, proven at the track and from a yard in excellent form. Strong contender.

2. Lusaka – 8/10

Dual C&D winner who chased home No More Bolero here in April. Receives 5lb from that rival this time and arrives in sound form. Very solid place claims and obvious each-way material.

3. Taritino – 8/10

Won this race two years ago and has won twice over hurdles this spring. Likely pace angle and dangerous if controlling matters. Long absence from the Flat but arrives fit.

4. Abando – 5.5/10 (P)

German Derby form from last year stands out but has shown little in Britain. Front-running effort at Nottingham hinted at life. Interesting rather than convincing.

5. Percy Jones – 4/10

All four wins have come on AW. Turf record now 0-22 and latest run was poor. Hard to support despite respectable ratings.

6. Kotari – 7/10

Career-low mark and first-time visor. Favourite on reappearance and disappointed but can improve sharply. Dangerous outsider if bouncing back.

7. Golden Garden – 4.5/10

Recent efforts leave him with plenty to find. First-time cheekpieces need to spark improvement.

8. Curran – 3.5/10

Well beaten on stable debut after wind surgery. Longer trip helps but needs dramatic improvement.


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Strongest Contenders

No More Bolero (p)

The most persuasive profile in the field. Proven at Bath, proven over the trip and latest defeat can be forgiven.

Lusaka

Consistent Bath specialist with excellent course credentials and receives a useful weight pull.

Taritino

Former winner of this race, race-fit from hurdling and could dominate from the front.


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Main Dangers

Lusaka

Taritino

Kotari



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Interesting Outsider

Kotari

Formerly much better than his current mark and now runs from a career-low rating with first-time visor applied. Not impossible that he rebounds.


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Timeform/Profile Notes

No More Bolero – Progressive since joining current connections and still capable of further improvement at staying trips (p).

Abando – Lightly raced and retains some untapped potential despite underwhelming British form (P).

Kotari – Handicap mark now becoming attractive relative to historical form.



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Private Tissue

No More Bolero – 29%

Lusaka – 23%

Taritino – 21%

Kotari – 11%

Abando – 7%

Percy Jones – 4%

Golden Garden – 3%

Curran – 2%


Equivalent odds:

No More Bolero 11/4

Lusaka 7/2

Taritino 15/4

Kotari 8/1

Abando 14/1

Percy Jones 24/1

Golden Garden 33/1

Curran 50/1



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Summary

This looks a race where proven Bath form should be trusted. No More Bolero, Lusaka and Taritino have the strongest track-and-trip credentials and all possess obvious tactical advantages. The likely pace setup should suit the first two particularly well, while Taritino remains dangerous if allowed to dictate.

With eight runners, each-way terms apply.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

No More Bolero (p)
Best combination of recent form, Bath suitability, stamina and trainer form. Latest run is readily excused.

Each-Way Saver

Lusaka
Dual C&D winner, receives weight from No More Bolero compared with their April meeting and looks highly likely to run his race again.