2m3½f (2m3f61y), Handicap Hurdle, Good ground, 16 runners

A competitive staying handicap hurdle where recent form, suitability to good ground and proven effectiveness around Clonmel look more important than raw handicap marks alone.

Pace Assessment

There is no abundance of confirmed front-runners. Several runners have been ridden prominently in the past without insisting on the lead. The pace looks likely to be even rather than strongly run, which may favour those racing handily rather than hold-up performers needing a collapse up front.

Draw Bias

Not applicable in hurdle races.


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Are we weighing the race correctly?

For this race I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Ground suitability (Good) – several runners have shown their best on better ground.


2. Recent handicap hurdle form – especially those who have run well in the last 30 days.


3. Course form at Clonmel – the track can suit particular types.


4. Fitness – a number return from lengthy absences.


5. Distance suitability – 2m3f is a specialist trip, neither a sharp 2m nor a true staying test.



I would place less emphasis on:

Older historical hurdle wins.

Flat form unless clearly transferable.

Raw handicap mark alone.



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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Churchwarden (P)

Rating: 7.5/10

Won a handicap hurdle in 2024 and now with Henry de Bromhead. Flat run last month should have sharpened him up. Unexposed enough over hurdles and from a powerful yard.

Positives: Trainer, potential improvement, prep run. Negatives: Long time since hurdle success.


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2. Inthenickoftime (p)

Rating: 8/10

Useful dual-purpose handicapper who mixed hurdles and fences effectively last season. Returns from 167 days off but possesses one of the strongest pieces of form in the race.

Positives: Consistent profile, strong RPRs. Negatives: Fitness question after layoff.


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3. Coded Welder (p)

Rating: 9/10

The most persuasive profile. Excellent Cork second after a 134-day absence on stable debut. Improvement expected second run back and his maiden hurdle form reads well.

Positives: Progressive profile, fitness edge, strong recent run. Negatives: Still a maiden.


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4. The Monkey Pole

Rating: 5.5/10

Runner-up in maidens last summer but has not reproduced that level recently.

Positives: Some ability. Negatives: Current form concerns.


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5. In For The Night

Rating: 5.5/10

Capable on old form and well handicapped if returning to best.

Positives: Previous handicap winner. Negatives: New yard and poor recent figures.


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6. Portarlington

Rating: 3.5/10

Multiple winner but current form is weak.

Positives: Winning history. Negatives: Out of form.


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7. Le Diablo

Rating: 5/10

Won here in April but subsequent runs have been disappointing.

Positives: Course winner. Negatives: Has gone backwards since.


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8. Hidalgo Des Mottes

Rating: 6.5/10

Long-standing maiden over hurdles but often runs well. Good ground suits and receives a very handy weight.

Positives: Ground, consistency. Negatives: Habit of finding one too good.


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9. Boujee

Rating: 4.5/10

Interesting handicap debutant after maiden hurdle campaign but returns from 266 days off.

Positives: Scope for improvement. Negatives: Absence.


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10. Ned In The Park

Rating: 7.5/10

Course-and-distance winner who ran another solid race here before a lesser effort over an inadequate trip.

Positives: Proven C&D performer. Negatives: Carries top weight.


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11. Takarengo

Rating: 4.5/10

Veteran who struggles to win over hurdles.

Positives: Fair recent fourth at Wexford. Negatives: Win record poor.


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12. Global Skies (p)

Rating: 8.5/10

Just denied over C&D latest and clearly appreciated the return to better ground. Major contender.

Positives: Excellent C&D run. Negatives: Handicapper reacted with 4lb rise.


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13. Penny Jar

Rating: 2.5/10

Formerly useful but recent profile is hard to support.


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14. Speakasyoufind

Rating: 3/10

Little evidence he is ready to win a handicap.


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15. Stumblin In

Rating: 3.5/10

Needs major improvement from seasonal return.


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16. Mister Vic

Rating: 2/10

Well beaten in recent starts.


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Strongest Contenders

Coded Welder (9/10)

The standout profile. Returned with a career-best handicap effort at Cork and looks capable of improving again.

Global Skies (8.5/10)

Excellent recent C&D second. Good ground appears key.

Inthenickoftime (8/10)

Possibly the classiest horse in the race if fully tuned up after his break.

Churchwarden (7.5/10)

Interesting improver from a top stable.

Ned In The Park (7.5/10)

Solid course specialist.


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Main Dangers

Global Skies

Inthenickoftime

Ned In The Park

Churchwarden



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Interesting Outsiders

Hidalgo Des Mottes

Looks likely to outrun bigger odds again on suitable ground.

Le Diablo

Has already shown he can win around Clonmel if bouncing back.


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Hold-Up Risk / Luck In Running

With a moderate pace forecast, horses ridden patiently could be vulnerable if the leaders stack them up.

Particular caution:

Hidalgo Des Mottes

Global Skies

Inthenickoftime


A steadily-run race may not suit deep closers.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Coded Welder 3/1
Global Skies 4/1
Inthenickoftime 11/2
Churchwarden 13/2
Ned In The Park 8/1
Hidalgo Des Mottes 12/1
Le Diablo 14/1
Boujee 20/1
In For The Night 22/1
The Monkey Pole 22/1
Takarengo 28/1
Others 33/1+



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Each-Way Angles (16 runners)

Best Each-Way Value

Hidalgo Des Mottes

Consistent, well treated at the weights and conditions suit. Looks capable of sneaking into the first five.

Secondary Each-Way Option

Ned In The Park

Strong Clonmel record and proven over the trip.


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Summary

Recent good-ground handicap form is a major asset here and Coded Welder brings the strongest profile after his excellent Cork return. Global Skies has already shown his hand over this course and distance and looks the most obvious danger. Inthenickoftime has the ability to win if fully fit, while Churchwarden is the lurking improver from a yard that excels with these types.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Coded Welder

Returned with a clear career-best effort after a break and looks the runner most likely to improve again.

Saver / Each-Way

Global Skies

Strong recent C&D form, proven on the ground and likely to be involved throughout.

1st Choice: Coded Welder
2nd Choice: Global Skies
Best Each-Way: Hidalgo Des Mottes