Paul Kavanagh Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m6½f | Handicap Hurdle | 0-100 | Good ground | 16 runners

Race assessment

This is a low-grade staying handicap hurdle where recent form, stamina and current wellbeing carry more weight than raw ratings alone.

Pace angles

There is no abundance of confirmed front-runners. Horses such as Sallap, Zolpharine and possibly Oogum Boogum have raced prominently before. A steadily-run race could favour those sitting handy rather than hold-up performers.

Draw angles

Not applicable over hurdles.

Factors to weight most heavily

For this race I would place the greatest emphasis on:

1. Current form


2. Proven stamina at 2m6f+


3. Ability on good ground


4. Handicap mark relative to recent form


5. Course suitability


6. Trainer form



Less emphasis than usual on class, as this is a 0-100 handicap where many have limitations.


—

Runner-by-runner ratings

1. Zolpharine – 8.5/10

Profile: Proven

Arrives in outstanding form after back-to-back wins over fences and hurdles. Raised 10lb for the Tramore success but remains dangerous. Harry Sexton’s useful 7lb claim offsets much of the rise.

Positives

Two recent wins

Proven stamina

Good ground suits

Yard operating well


Negatives

Handicapper has reacted

Needs to show latest improvement is sustainable



—

2. Where Are You Now – 8/10 (P)

Profile: Promising

Lightly raced 5yo who ran to a useful level when narrowly beaten at Punchestown in January. Pulled hard over 3m on return and can improve dropped slightly in trip.

Positives

Unexposed

Strong handicap profile

Potential for improvement


Negatives

Still only five starts under rules

Hasn’t yet won



—

3. Thewaybackhome – 8.5/10 (P)

Profile: Promising

The Racing Post verdict selection. Massive step forward when third on handicap debut over this course. Point form suggests stamina should be within range.

Positives

Excellent handicap debut

Proven at Clonmel

Open to significant improvement


Negatives

Needs to fully prove stamina at this trip



—

4. Spellacy’s Cross – 7.5/10

Profile: Proven

Second reserve. Dual chase winner who is 0-17 over hurdles but has run well enough in stronger handicaps recently.

Positives

Consistent recent efforts

Strong RPR figures


Negatives

Needs a non-runner

Habit of finding one too good



—

5. Oogum Boogum – 7.5/10 (p)

Profile: Progressive

Won at Punchestown before a respectable third at Wexford. Handles staying trips and remains on a workable mark.

Positives

Recent winner

Stamina proven

Trainer in form


Negatives

Jumping not as fluent last time



—

6. Fire Coral – 6.5/10

Profile: Proven

Won twice last summer over similar trips. Returns from 252 days off.

Positives

Distance ideal

Good-ground winner


Negatives

Long absence

Market support would be significant



—

7. Nashville Notions – 5.5/10

Profile: Proven

Has not built on maiden hurdle success but showed a little more spark latest.

Positives

Staying trip should suit


Negatives

Handicap form weak overall



—

8. Queen Kulina – 5.5/10

Profile: Progressive

Still a maiden but has run several respectable races in similar contests.

Positives

Well handicapped if returning to best


Negatives

Fell last time

Ten-year-old maiden



—

9. Sallap – 5.5/10

Profile: Proven

Course-and-distance winner.

Positives

Proven at Clonmel

Conditions suitable


Negatives

Very disappointing seasonal return



—

10. Rizedda – 5/10 (P)

Profile: Promising

Interesting runner from the De Bromhead stable returning from 251 days off.

Positives

Unexposed

Top yard


Negatives

Handicap debut needs major improvement

Absence


Market watch advised.


—

11. Last Note – 4.5/10

Profile: Proven

Had some useful British form but poor stable debut.

Positives

Previous ability


Negatives

Needs dramatic revival



—

12. Miss Donna – 4.5/10

Profile: Progressive

Reasonable recent efforts over shorter.

Positives

Low weight


Negatives

Major stamina question



—

13. Three County Star – 4/10

Profile: Promising

Still lightly raced.

Positives

Scope for improvement


Negatives

Well beaten on handicap debut



—

14. Whoswhointhezoo – 3/10

Profile: Promising

Blinkers applied.

Positives

Could improve with headgear


Negatives

Has shown very little so far



—

15. Appian Way – 2.5/10

Profile: Proven

Course winner but recent form poor.


—

16. Cullig – 2/10

Profile: Proven

Three pull-ups in last four starts.


—

Strongest contenders

Thewaybackhome (P)

Looks exactly the type to improve markedly from first handicap start. Proven around Clonmel and still lightly raced.

Zolpharine

Comes here in the best current form and deserves major respect despite the higher mark.

Where Are You Now (P)

Likely capable of better than current rating suggests. The return run can be upgraded due to keenness over 3m.


—

Main dangers

Oogum Boogum (p) – arrives in form and stays well.

Fire Coral – dangerous if fully tuned up after the break.

Spellacy’s Cross (if obtaining a run) – solid place claims.



—

Interesting outsiders

Rizedda (P)

From a powerful stable and retains some upside. Lack of recent run tempers confidence but market support would be notable.

Queen Kulina

Well handicapped on some older efforts and capable of outrunning odds.


—

Hold-up risks needing luck

The likely pace does not look especially strong. Horses ridden patiently could require gaps and a stronger gallop than appears likely:

Where Are You Now

Fire Coral

Rizedda



—

Private tissue

Horse Tissue

Zolpharine 4/1
Thewaybackhome 5/1
Where Are You Now 11/2
Oogum Boogum 13/2
Fire Coral 10/1
Spellacy’s Cross* 10/1
Rizedda 14/1
Queen Kulina 16/1
Sallap 16/1
Nashville Notions 18/1
Others 25/1+


*Reserve.


—

Summary

This looks a race where recent progressive profiles should be favoured over exposed stayers. Thewaybackhome took a sizeable step forward on handicap debut at this track and remains one of the few runners with obvious upside. Zolpharine is the form horse and must be respected despite his higher mark, while Where Are You Now remains a potentially well-treated runner if settling better than on his seasonal return.

Smart Play

Win Selection: Thewaybackhome (P)

Saver: Zolpharine

Each-way angle (16 runners)

Where Are You Now (P) appeals as the strongest each-way option given his unexposed profile and likely improvement from his recent return run.