2m 50y | Handicap Chase | 4yo+ | Good to Yielding (rain forecast) | 10 runners

Race Shape, Pace & Track Assessment

Punchestown’s 2m chase course generally rewards accurate jumping and the ability to travel strongly through the middle part of the race. With rain forecast, conditions could ease further, bringing proven soft-ground performers more into play.

Expected Pace

There is no obvious confirmed front-running specialist here. Several like to race handily:

Park That – usually races prominently.

Indiana Jones – often sits close enough to the pace.

Birdie Or Bust – can be ridden positively.

War Correspondent – generally races in midfield rather than being held up.


The likely scenario is an evenly-run handicap rather than a strongly-run burn-up.

Draw Bias

Not relevant in a chase.

Key Weighting Factors For This Race

For this particular contest I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Current handicap mark versus peak chase form


2. Suitability to Punchestown


3. Recent chase form


4. Ground conditions


5. Jumping reliability


6. Trainer form and intent


7. Pace position



Less emphasis on raw speed figures given the nature of this handicap chase.


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Runner-by-Runner Assessment

1. Indiana Jones (P)

Suitability: Track 9/10 | Distance 8/10 | Ground 8/10

A major class angle in the race. His last two starts came in significantly stronger handicaps at Aintree and Punchestown. The fifth in a 20-runner handicap here reads extremely well in this company. The 7lb claim is a major asset.

He’s a 10yo but those recent runs suggest a revival rather than decline.

Rating: 8.8/10 Type: Proven


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2. Hashtag Pretender (P)

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Distance 9/10 | Ground 8/10

Interesting handicap chase debutant. Barry Connell’s runners demand respect and his chase form behind useful types last autumn gives him strong claims.

Big absence (258 days) is the obvious concern. Market strength would be highly significant.

Rating: 8.5/10 P Type: Promising


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3. War Correspondent (p)

Suitability: Track 10/10 | Distance 9/10 | Ground 8/10

The key piece of form is his Grade 3 novice chase third at Punchestown behind Birdie Or Bust. Off this mark he could be exceptionally well treated if reproducing that effort.

The concern is temperament and winning mentality (not easy to get his head in front), but handicapped to be very competitive.

Rating: 8.4/10 p Type: Progressive


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4. Park That

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Distance 8/10 | Ground 6/10

Consistent profile and arguably the safest runner in the race. Excellent Navan second behind subsequent Ayr handicap winner Moudan is strong form.

The concern is drying ground. His best efforts have come with much more testing conditions.

Rating: 8.2/10 Type: Proven


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5. Birdie Or Bust

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Distance 9/10 | Ground 8/10

Rated considerably higher over hurdles and owns quality novice chase form. However, two disappointing efforts this spring leave questions to answer.

Capable of bouncing back but comes with risk.

Rating: 7.7/10 Type: Proven


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6. Stuntman Steve (p)

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Ground 7/10

Better hurdler than chaser but remains attractively handicapped. Latest run can be forgiven due to equipment issues.

Gavin Cromwell is operating at a very healthy strike-rate and this horse has enough ability to outrun odds.

Rating: 7.5/10 p Type: Progressive


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7. Be Fierce

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Distance 8/10 | Ground 9/10 if rain arrives

Very dependent on ground conditions. If rain turns conditions properly testing, his chance improves considerably.

Current mark gives him a fighting chance.

Rating: 7.2/10 Type: Proven


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8. Crescent Moon (P)

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 6/10 | Ground 8/10

Still unexposed over fences but remains a maiden after seven chase starts. Slightly more encouraging effort at Killarney.

Drop back in trip is not obviously ideal.

Rating: 6.8/10 P Type: Promising


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9. Listentillitellyea

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Ground 8/10

Another who would appreciate more rain. Returned from a long absence with a poor run and needs a major step forward.

Rating: 6.3/10 Type: Proven


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10. Gaelic Arc

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Distance 8/10 | Ground 7/10

Well handicapped on old form and finished fourth in this race last year. However, current form is difficult to trust and he fell six days ago.

Rating: 5.8/10 Type: Proven


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Strongest Contenders

Indiana Jones

Class dropper

Excellent recent handicap form

Strong adjusted ratings

Useful 7lb claim


Hashtag Pretender (P)

Handicap chase debut

Strong novice chase form

Powerful stable

Unexposed profile


War Correspondent (p)

Excellent Punchestown Grade 3 form

Very dangerous from current mark

Proven at track


Park That

Consistent recent handicap efforts

Strong Navan formline



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Main Dangers

Birdie Or Bust

Stuntman Steve

Be Fierce (especially if rain arrives)



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Interesting Outsiders

Stuntman Steve (p)

The Cromwell factor and a lenient mark make him more interesting than the market may suggest.

Be Fierce

One for late weather watchers. Significant rain would materially improve his prospects.


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Hold-Up Risks / Luck In Running

No extreme hold-up specialists in the field. Most runners should secure reasonable positions and avoid severe traffic issues.


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Trainer Notes

Barry Connell – 40% strike-rate shown on card.

Gavin Cromwell – 40% strike-rate and saddles two runners.

Henry de Bromhead – 63% strike-rate shown on card and cannot be ignored despite Birdie Or Bust’s recent disappointments.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Indiana Jones 4/1
Hashtag Pretender 9/2
War Correspondent 11/2
Park That 6/1
Birdie Or Bust 8/1
Stuntman Steve 10/1
Be Fierce 12/1
Crescent Moon 14/1
Listentillitellyea 20/1
Gaelic Arc 25/1



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Summary

This looks a stronger race than the official ratings suggest because several runners have pieces of novice or graded form that make them potentially well treated.

Indiana Jones brings the strongest recent handicap form and is dropping markedly in class after two highly respectable efforts in deep handicaps. The claim further strengthens his case.

War Correspondent may be the most attractively handicapped horse if reproducing his Grade 3 Punchestown effort and looks the value against the market leaders.

Hashtag Pretender is the unknown quantity. His handicap chase debut could unlock significant improvement, but the long absence means market signals should be monitored closely.


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ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Indiana Jones – strongest proven recent form, class drop, excellent claim.

Each-Way Saver

War Correspondent (p) – course form, favourable mark and solid suitability profile for this race.

Market Watch

Hashtag Pretender (P) – if notably backed after 258 days off, his chance increases considerably.