1m4f 6y, Group 1, 4yo+, Good to Soft (rain around), 6 runners

A fascinating small-field renewal featuring a rematch between last year’s first two, Jan Brueghel and Calandagan.

Pace Angle

The race lacks obvious front-runners apart from Illinois, who looks the most likely pace angle. Aidan O’Brien has three runners and Illinois could ensure a genuine test rather than a tactical affair. That would suit the proven stayers and reduce the chance of a sprint finish.

Draw Angle

With only six runners around Epsom’s 1m4f start, draw is of limited significance. Positioning around Tattenham Corner and handling Epsom’s undulations is far more important than stall location.


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Assessing the Race Correctly

For this particular race, I would place greatest emphasis on:

1. Proven Group 1 class


2. Track suitability (Epsom form)


3. Ground suitability


4. Pace scenario


5. Current form


6. Distance suitability



Draw and field-size factors carry relatively little weight in a six-runner Group 1.


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Runner-by-Runner Analysis

1. Calandagan – 9.5/10

Profile: Proven

The highest-rated horse in the field and arguably the world. Since losing this race by a neck last year he has won the King George, Champion Stakes, Japan Cup and Sheema Classic.

Suitability

Going: Good to soft is acceptable but very testing ground would be a concern.

Track: Ran an excellent race when second here last year.

Distance: Ideal.

Pace: A proper gallop helps.

Temperament: Extremely professional.


Timeform/Profile Notes

Outstanding consistency at elite level.

Turned tables on Jan Brueghel in the King George.


The one they all have to beat if conditions remain suitable.

Rating: 9.5/10


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2. Jan Brueghel – 9/10

Profile: Proven

Defending champion who beat Calandagan in this race twelve months ago on similar ground.

Suitability

Going: Good to soft clearly suits.

Track: Course winner.

Distance: Ideal.

Pace: Genuine pace important.

Trainer/Jockey: O’Brien-Moore combination always commands respect.


Timeform/Profile Notes

St Leger winner.

Reappeared with a smooth Ormonde Stakes success.


The strongest alternative to Calandagan and may be slightly underestimated because of the latter’s superstar reputation.

Rating: 9/10


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3. Convergent (P) – 8/10

Profile: Promising

The most interesting improver in the race.

Suitability

Going: Won on soft as a juvenile.

Distance: Strong at 1m4f.

Track: Unproven at Epsom.

Pace: Strong pace should suit.


Timeform/Profile Notes

Progressive profile.

Group 3 winner on seasonal return despite suffering interference.

RPRs suggest further improvement is possible.


Needs another sizeable step forward but is the one most likely to find it.

Rating: 8/10 (P)


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4. Lambourn (p) – 7.5/10

Profile: Progressive

Dual Derby winner returning to the scene of his greatest success.

Suitability

Track: Excellent; Derby winner.

Distance: Ideal.

Going: Versatile.

Pace: Genuine pace preferred.


Timeform/Profile Notes

Won the Derby and Irish Derby.

Reappearance success at Chester.

Ryan Moore siding with Jan Brueghel is noteworthy.


Respected, particularly at Epsom, but needs to improve on current ratings to beat the top pair.

Rating: 7.5/10 (p)


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5. Bay City Roller (p) – 6.5/10

Profile: Progressive

Likeable and consistent colt who rarely runs a bad race.

Suitability

Going: Handles soft.

Distance: Proven.

Track: Unknown.

Pace: Genuine pace helps.


Timeform/Profile Notes

German Group 1 winner.

Good Curragh second this season.

Chester run behind Lambourn reads well.


Likely to run respectably but requires a career best.

Rating: 6.5/10 (p)


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6. Illinois – 4.5/10

Profile: Proven

Likely pace-maker.

Suitability

Distance: Fine.

Going: No issue.

Track: Should handle it.


Timeform/Profile Notes

Useful Group performer.

Well behind Jan Brueghel at Chester.

Ratings leave him with plenty to find.


Looks vulnerable unless the race develops unusually.

Rating: 4.5/10


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Adjusted Ratings

1. Calandagan – 9.5/10


2. Jan Brueghel – 9/10


3. Convergent (P) – 8/10


4. Lambourn (p) – 7.5/10


5. Bay City Roller (p) – 6.5/10


6. Illinois – 4.5/10




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Contenders

Strongest Contenders

Calandagan

Jan Brueghel


Main Dangers

Convergent (P)

Lambourn (p)


Interesting Outsider

Bay City Roller (p)



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Private Tissue

My estimated winning probabilities:

Calandagan – 44%

Jan Brueghel – 31%

Convergent (P) – 12%

Lambourn (p) – 8%

Bay City Roller (p) – 4%

Illinois – 1%


Equivalent tissue:

Calandagan – 5/4

Jan Brueghel – 9/4

Convergent – 15/2

Lambourn – 11/1

Bay City Roller – 25/1

Illinois – 100/1



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Trends & Key Notes

Last year’s first and second meet again under similar conditions.

Aidan O’Brien has won this race numerous times and saddles half the field.

Epsom course form is a major positive for both Jan Brueghel and Lambourn.

Convergent brings the most upside and remains relatively unexposed at the highest level.

Small field reduces luck-in-running concerns; there are no obvious hold-up runners likely to encounter major traffic issues.



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Summary

This revolves around whether Calandagan can reverse last year’s Coronation Cup result once again. On overall achievements and ratings he remains the clear standard-setter, but Jan Brueghel is a proven Epsom performer who already owns a victory over him in this race and arrives in excellent order.

Convergent is the fresh horse in the equation and looks capable of reaching a higher level this season, while Lambourn should run better than some may expect back at Epsom.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Calandagan – the highest-rated horse in the world, proven at Epsom and arriving off another Group 1 success. If the ground remains no worse than good to soft, he sets the standard.

Saver

Jan Brueghel – defending champion, course winner, proven on the likely ground and the most credible threat to the favourite.

(No each-way recommendation as there are only six runners.)