Class 2 Handicap | 1m4f6y | 4yo+ | 17 runners | Good to Soft

A typically competitive Epsom staying handicap where course suitability and race position are often as important as raw ability.

Pace & Draw Assessment

Likely pace:

Elsass, Hengest, Too Soon and possibly Give It To Me Oj are among those capable of racing prominently.

Several habitual midfield/hold-up performers are present, suggesting a fair rather than overly strong gallop.


Draw bias:

Over this trip at Epsom, draw is less important than in sprint races, but low-to-middle stalls can still be helpful approaching the first bend.

Wide draws require either tactical speed or patience to avoid losing ground around Epsom’s turns.

Draws 14-17 are not ideal unless the horse is tactically versatile.


Pace/draw interaction:

Spinning Wheel (1) has an excellent draw and should secure a smooth position.

Elsass (9) is well berthed for a positive ride.

Regal Ulixes (14) and Lord Melbourne (17) may need extra luck tactically from wider stalls.



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Suitability Analysis

1. Spinning Wheel (Draw 1) – 9/10 (p)

Going: Unproven on softer ground but pedigree and profile suggest it should be manageable.

Field size: Fine.

Pace setup: Ideal. Can sit handy from stall 1.

Draw: Major positive.

Class: Looks capable of better than current mark.

Track: Crisford runners often handle Epsom if balanced; no obvious concern.

Distance: Strong positive.

Temperament: Professional profile.

Trainer/Jockey: James Doyle booked; stable operating well.

Verdict: Progressive profile with scope to improve again. The one most likely to run beyond current mark.


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2. Give It To Me Oj (10) – 8.5/10 (p)

Course-and-distance winner.

Excellent Epsom credentials and arrives in good form. The 7lb claim helps offset the rise in class.

Positives:

Proven track specialist.

Strong recent figures.

Well suited by field size.


Concern:

Career-high mark in a deeper race.



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3. Regal Ulixes (14) – 8/10 (P)

Still relatively lightly raced for a handicapper.

Positives:

Oisin Murphy booked.

Balding yard knows how to place stayers.

Scope for improvement.


Negatives:

Wide draw.

Not yet fully proven around Epsom.



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4. Bulletin (15) – 8/10 (p)

Consistent profile and attractive weight.

Positives:

Carries only 8-7.

Recent form solid.

Harry Davies a positive booking.


Concern:

Draw 15 may force a wider trip.



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5. Night Breeze (8) – 8/10

Course-and-distance winner.

Positives:

Proven Epsom performer.

Ian Williams excels with staying handicappers.

Good draw.


Concern:

Six-year-old may be more exposed than some rivals.



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6. Too Soon (13) – 8/10 (P)

Highest Timeform figure in the field (107).

Positives:

Potentially well handicapped.

First-time cheekpieces seemed to sharpen him.


Concern:

Hasn’t always looked straightforward.

Needs to prove consistency.



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7. Elsass (9) – 8.5/10 (p)

Charlie Johnston runner likely to be prominent.

Positives:

Progressive profile.

Strong recent form.

Trip looks ideal.


Concern:

Epsom presents a different challenge from more conventional tracks.



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8. Asgard’s Captain (12) – 7.5/10

Course-and-distance winner.

Useful Epsom record and enters calculations for place purposes.


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9. Lord Melbourne (17) – 7.5/10

Course-and-distance winner.

Concern: Stall 17 is a significant tactical challenge.


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10. Gordon Grey (16) – 7/10

Another C&D winner.

Capable but vulnerable from a difficult draw and may need race circumstances to fall perfectly.


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11. Hengest (7) – 7.5/10 (p)

Rapid improver.

Positives:

Arrives seeking four-timer.

Still progressing.


Concern:

Big rise in class from lower grades.


Market support would be significant.


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12. Prydwen (3) – 7/10

Topweight and admirable veteran.

Likely to run his race but younger, improving rivals may have more in hand.


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13. Dancing In Paris (4) – 5.5/10

273-day absence.

Major market watch runner.

Capable on old form but fitness concerns dominate.


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14. Antrim (6) – 5/10

Has ability but profile lacks the consistency required for this contest.


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15. Max Mayhem (2) – 4.5/10

Handily drawn but recent form leaves plenty to find.


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16. Military Academy (11) – 4/10

Well treated historically but difficult to support on current evidence.


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17. Northwest Passage (5) – 3.5/10

Long handicap and difficult to make a strong case.


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Strongest Contenders

Spinning Wheel (p)

Progressive, ideal draw, strong trainer-jockey combination and open to further improvement over this trip.

Give It To Me Oj (p)

Course specialist with proven Epsom credentials.

Elsass (p)

Likely pace angle who could prove difficult to pass if obtaining an easy lead.

Regal Ulixes (P)

One of the more interesting unexposed runners.


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Main Dangers

Too Soon (P)

Night Breeze

Bulletin (p)

Hengest (p)



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Interesting Outsiders

Asgard’s Captain

Course-and-distance winner who could outrun his odds.

Lord Melbourne

Another proven Epsom performer if overcoming stall 17.


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Hold-Up Risk / Needs Luck In Running

The following may require gaps at the right time:

Night Breeze

Asgard’s Captain

Lord Melbourne

Gordon Grey

Bulletin


Large-field Epsom handicaps can be unforgiving for horses delivered late.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Spinning Wheel 5/1
Give It To Me Oj 13/2
Elsass 7/1
Regal Ulixes 8/1
Too Soon 9/1
Night Breeze 10/1
Bulletin 10/1
Hengest 12/1
Asgard’s Captain 14/1
Lord Melbourne 16/1
Gordon Grey 18/1
Prydwen 20/1
Dancing In Paris 25/1
Antrim 33/1
Max Mayhem 40/1
Military Academy 50/1
Northwest Passage 66/1



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Are We Weighing The Race Correctly?

Key factors deserving extra emphasis here:

1. Epsom course form – more important than normal.


2. Ability to hold position around bends.


3. Progressive 4yo profiles.


4. Draw combined with tactical speed.


5. Proven stamina at a true 1m4f+.



No non-runners are shown in the racecard supplied.


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Smart Play

Win Selection

Spinning Wheel (9/10, p)

He combines the strongest improvement angle with the best draw, a top jockey and a profile suggesting his current mark may underestimate him.

Each-Way Saver

Give It To Me Oj (8.5/10, p)

With 17 runners and five places available, his proven course-and-distance record makes him a very solid each-way proposition.

Alternative Value Runner

Elsass (8.5/10, p)

If allowed to dictate or race prominently, he could be the one that gives the selection most to do.

Top Two Bets

1. Spinning Wheel – Win


2. Give It To Me Oj – Each Way