Class 5 | 2m47y | Good ground (rain around) | 13 runners

Race Assessment

Going Suitability

Officially good ground. Perth generally rewards fluent jumpers and those able to travel comfortably through the race. If rain arrives, it should not inconvenience Alibaba, who has already won twice on good and is expected to cope with easier conditions.

Field Size Suitability

A competitive 13-runner handicap. Several runners have been racing in smaller fields, so those with proven handicap experience in bigger fields gain an advantage.

Forecast Pace

The pace looks only moderate. There are no obvious confirmed front-runners. This may favour horses that race handily rather than deep hold-up types.

Potential pace angles:

Breadalbane Lass

Struth

Betteryouthanme


Hold-up runners needing luck:

Storm The Dug

Morandi Second

Alibaba (can be ridden patiently)


Draw Bias

Not applicable over hurdles.

Pace/Track Interaction

Perth’s sharp nature generally favours horses able to hold position before turning for home. Excessive waiting tactics can be costly.

Class Suitability

Most have shown their best form at Class 5 level. No runner appears badly treated by class rise.

Track Suitability

Strong Perth form often counts.

Positives:

Breadalbane Lass (C&D winner)

Storm The Dug (C&D second)

Betteryouthanme (good recent Perth third)


Distance Suitability

2m looks ideal for:

Alibaba

Storm The Dug

Karthala

Morandi Second


Betteryouthanme’s drop back from 2m4f may help.

Trainer Form

Notable yards:

Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore – strong Perth operators.

Adrian Keatley – Alibaba thriving since joining stable.

Adam Nicol – Blondina interesting on handicap debut.


Jockeys

Oakley Brown’s claim remains useful aboard Alibaba.

Patrick Wadge is a positive booking for Storm The Dug.

Toby Wynne rides Perth well and knows Betteryouthanme.



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Are We Weighing The Race Correctly?

The key factors here are:

1. Recent handicap form.


2. Suitability to Perth’s sharp 2m.


3. Scope for improvement from lightly raced handicap debutants.



This is not a race where ratings alone decide matters. Novice handicap hurdles often go to improvers rather than exposed handicappers.

Most important factors today:

1. Handicap progression.


2. Track suitability.


3. Recent form.


4. Trainer form.



No non-runners are listed in the card provided.


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Runner-by-Runner Ratings

1. Alibaba – 8.5/10 (p)

Two wins from two starts for the Keatley yard. Has risen in the weights but both victories suggested more remained in hand. Handles good ground and should stay this trip comfortably.

Progressive: p


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2. Blondina – 8/10 (P)

Very interesting handicap hurdle debutante. Has shown little over hurdles but won on the Flat recently and receives a basement mark. Could improve dramatically now handicapping.

Promising: P


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3. Betteryouthanme – 7.5/10 (P)

Improved markedly on handicap debut here. Travelled strongly before fading late over 2m4f. Return to 2m could unlock more.

Promising: P


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4. Breadalbane Lass – 7/10

C&D winner who beat Storm The Dug in April. Perth clearly suits. Slight concern that she may have shown most of her hand already.


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5. Storm The Dug – 7.5/10 (p)

Fair Flat performer. Excellent handicap hurdle debut when second over C&D. Still open to progress and receives weight-for-age allowance as a 4yo.

Progressive: p


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6. Morandi Second – 6.5/10

Capable on old form and well handicapped. Long absence (326 days) tempers enthusiasm. Significant market support would be noteworthy.


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7. Karthala – 7/10 (P)

Encouraging third behind Alibaba at Warwick on handicap debut. Open to further progress and represents a yard that places runners well.

Promising: P


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8. Struth – 5.5/10

Useful Flat horse once upon a time but hasn’t transferred that ability to hurdles. Needs major improvement.


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9. Jack Dempsey – 3/10

Pulled up latest and still searching for form.


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10. King Kodiak – 4/10

Capable on his day but unreliable and can make jumping errors.


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11. Magic Gloves – 3.5/10

Handicap debut effort last season offered promise but recent runs have been disappointing. Wind operation needs to spark revival.


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12. Bouboule – 3/10

Hasn’t progressed as expected and arrives with questions to answer.


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13. Bray Dale – 1/10

Out of the handicap and difficult to support on current evidence.


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Strongest Contenders

Alibaba (p)

Most solid profile in the race. Two recent wins, improving figures and still potentially ahead of the assessor.

Blondina (P)

The unknown quantity. Flat success suggests confidence and fitness. Handicap hurdle debut from a low mark could prove lenient.

Storm The Dug (p)

Excellent Perth form and entitled to improve significantly from first handicap effort.

Betteryouthanme (P)

Strong traveller who shaped better than bare result last time.


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Main Dangers

Storm The Dug

Blondina

Betteryouthanme

Karthala



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Interesting Outsiders

Karthala (P)

Ran behind Alibaba but was making handicap debut and could find plenty of improvement.

Morandi Second

Dangerous if fully fit after absence; market support would increase confidence.


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Significant Profile Notes

Alibaba: won both starts for current yard.

Blondina: returns after recent Flat win.

Storm The Dug: second over this C&D on handicap debut.

Betteryouthanme: shaped better than finishing position suggests.

Morandi Second: absent 326 days; market important.



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Alibaba 23%
Blondina 18%
Storm The Dug 15%
Betteryouthanme 14%
Karthala 9%
Breadalbane Lass 8%
Morandi Second 5%
Struth 3%
King Kodiak 2%
Magic Gloves 1.5%
Bouboule 1%
Jack Dempsey 0.8%
Bray Dale 0.7%



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Each-Way Angles (13 runners)

1. Storm The Dug – proven at Perth and still progressing.


2. Karthala – likely to improve from handicap debut.


3. Betteryouthanme – profile suggests more to come.




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Summary

Alibaba brings the strongest recent form and arrives seeking a hat-trick after two convincing wins for his new stable. Storm The Dug and Betteryouthanme both shaped like future winners on recent handicap starts and look suited by conditions. Blondina is the potential fly in the ointment; her recent Flat success and opening hurdle mark make her one of the more interesting runners in the field.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Alibaba (p)
Most solid profile, thriving for current yard, proven in similar races and still appears ahead of his mark.

Each-Way Saver

Storm The Dug (p)
Strong Perth form, progressive profile, and likely to be suited by the race setup.

Alternative value each-way: Karthala (P) if showing market support.