Class: Handicap (3yo+)
Going: Good (rain around)
Runners: 10
Each-way: 1/5 odds, 1-3 places

Race Shape, Pace & Draw

Navan’s 6f course can suit horses able to hold a prominent position, particularly on genuine good ground. Looking through the field:

Likely pace:

Ocean’s Breath has raced prominently and comes here fit after Friday’s Fairyhouse success.

Collective Power is usually ridden handily.

Jon Riggens and Aurora Nova can also be close to the speed.


This looks a fair rather than strongly-run sprint, which may favour those racing prominently rather than deep closers.

Draw: With only 10 runners and a straight sprint course, draw bias should be limited. Pace position is likely more important than stall position.


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Suitability Assessment

1. Ocean’s Breath (10) – 8.5/10 (P)

Going: Proven on good.
Field size: Fine.
Pace: Should get a suitable stalking position.
Draw: Wide draw not ideal but manageable.
Class: Capable of this level.
Track: Has run well at Navan previously.
Distance: Slight concern dropping back from 7f after improving for the longer trip.
Temperament: Got warm before Naas defeat.
Trainer/Jockey: Major positives; Lyons and Keane are always respected.

Won comfortably on Friday and remains the obvious improver. The penalty makes life harder and the drop back to 6f is not necessarily ideal, but he has the strongest upside.


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2. I Bid You Ajou (9) – 8.5/10

Going: Ideal.
Distance: Proven 6f specialist.
Track: No issues.
Pace: Needs a good pace but usually runs consistently.
Trainer/Jockey: Claim useful.

Arguably unlucky at the Curragh and again ran respectably at Listowel. A very solid handicap profile and likely to run his race.


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3. Jon Riggens (1) – 7/10

Going: Versatile.
Track: Course winner.
Distance: Ideal.
Pace: Could get a handy position from stall 1.

Recent form is below his best. Well handicapped on old form but requires a revival.


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4. Nouvel Espoir (4) – 7.5/10

Going: Suited.
Distance: Slight question stepping back up from recent 5f runs.
Track: Recent good Navan effort.
Pace: Should be finishing strongly.

Recent figures suggest he is returning to form. Interesting at the weights.


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5. Collective Power (3) – 8/10

Going: Fine.
Track: C&D winner.
Distance: Ideal.
Pace: Perfect setup likely.
Jockey: Huge 10lb claim.

The claim gives him an enormous chance. Most of his best recent form has been at Dundalk but he is very well treated if transferring that form back to turf.


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6. Greek Flower (5) – 7/10

Going: Good ground fine.
Distance: Six furlongs suits.
Class: Competitive.

Long losing run remains a concern. Has enough ability but lacks a killer instinct at present.


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7. Clonmacash (8) – 5.5/10

Distance: Fine.
Surface: Strongly favours AW.

His turf record is significantly weaker than his Dundalk profile.


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8. Aurora Nova (6) – 6.5/10

Going: Fine.
Distance: Fine.
Pace: Needs race to fall right.

Closely matched with I Bid You Ajou but appears vulnerable to better-treated rivals.


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9. Alfred Tennyson (2) – 5.5/10

Distance: Suitable.
Track: Fair recent Navan effort.

Still needs to reverse recent form with several rivals.


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10. Gerrit’s Gem (7) – 4/10

Recent form leaves him with plenty to prove.


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Strongest Contenders

Ocean’s Breath (P)

The clear improver in the field. Comfortable Fairyhouse winner on Friday and still relatively lightly raced. The key question is whether returning to 6f blunts his effectiveness.

I Bid You Ajou

Rock-solid handicap sprinter who arrives in form. Consistent, reliable and likely to get involved again.

Collective Power

Dangerous off a reduced mark, especially with the valuable 10lb claim. Proven over course and distance.


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Main Dangers

Nouvel Espoir

Recent Navan and Naas efforts suggest he is returning to his best. Well capable of making the frame.

Greek Flower

Capable on ratings but needs to end a lengthy losing spell.


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Interesting Outsider

Jon Riggens

Course winner, proven sprinter and now attractively handicapped. Recent form does not inspire confidence but conditions suit.


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Progressive & Promising Types

P – Promising

Ocean’s Breath


p – Progressive

None stand out strongly among the older handicappers; most are exposed.



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Adjusted Ratings (/10)

Horse Rating

Ocean’s Breath (P) 8.5
I Bid You Ajou 8.5
Collective Power 8.0
Nouvel Espoir 7.5
Jon Riggens 7.0
Greek Flower 7.0
Aurora Nova 6.5
Clonmacash 5.5
Alfred Tennyson 5.5
Gerrit’s Gem 4.0



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Ocean’s Breath 3/1
I Bid You Ajou 4/1
Collective Power 5/1
Nouvel Espoir 7/1
Jon Riggens 9/1
Greek Flower 10/1
Aurora Nova 12/1
Clonmacash 14/1
Alfred Tennyson 20/1
Gerrit’s Gem 33/1



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Summary

This revolves around whether Ocean’s Breath can reproduce Friday’s Fairyhouse performance under a penalty and back at 6f. He has the strongest upside and remains the most likely winner.

I Bid You Ajou brings the most dependable handicap form and looks very likely to run another big race, while Collective Power is particularly dangerous given the 10lb claim and proven course-and-distance credentials.

The pace setup looks favourable for prominent racers, which strengthens the cases of Ocean’s Breath and Collective Power.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Ocean’s Breath (P)
Improving profile, top trainer-jockey combination and arrives off a decisive recent success.

Each-Way Saver

Collective Power
Course-and-distance winner, well handicapped and receives a potentially decisive 10lb claim in a race where small margins may prove crucial.

Predicted 1-2-3

1. Ocean’s Breath (P)


2. Collective Power


3. I Bid You Ajou