1m1f, Listed, Good ground, 12 runners

Race Assessment

Going: Good
Distance: 1m1f
Field Size: 12 runners – enough pace pressure to make tactical positioning important.

Pace Angle

There is no obvious confirmed front-runner. Several runners have raced prominently without needing the lead. This could develop into a steadily-run Listed race where tactical speed becomes important.

That scenario would suit:

Hotazhell

Isaac Newton

Geryon


It may be less ideal for:

Wemightakedlongway (usually strongest when stamina comes into play)

Some of the hold-up performers who may require luck if the pace collapses late.


Draw Angle

Navan’s 1m1f start generally offers a fair run into the first bend. Draw is less important than tactical position.

Notable draws:

Isaac Newton (3) – favourable.

Wemightakedlongway (2) – favourable.

Hotazhell (7) – neutral.

Subsonic (11) and Bubble Gum (12) may need to avoid being posted wide early.


Pace & Draw Interaction

With limited pace on paper, those drawn low-to-middle who can secure handy positions should enjoy the run of the race.


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Suitability Assessment

Hotazhell – 9.5/10

Proven

Going: Yes

Distance: Yes

Track: Should suit

Class: Clear class act

Trainer: Harrington yard in excellent form

Jockey: Shane Foley knows him well

Temperament: Can race keenly but generally manageable


The standout on ratings. Group 1 winner at two, Irish 2000 Guineas third and Irish Champion Stakes fourth last season. This Listed contest is considerably easier than the races he contested in 2025.

The only concern is fitness after his seasonal debut, but he ran a huge race first time out last season.

Adjusted Rating: 9.5/10


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Isaac Newton (P) – 8.5/10

Promising

Going: Fine

Distance: Ideal

Class: Progressive 3yo profile

Trainer/Jockey: O’Brien/Moore combination commands respect

Pace setup likely to suit


Excellent juvenile Group 1 form when fourth in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Shaped as though needing his Newmarket return and Lingfield can be forgiven.

Receives 11lb from Hotazhell and remains open to significant improvement.

Adjusted Rating: 8.5/10 P


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Wemightakedlongway (p) – 8/10

Progressive

Going: Fine

Class: Strong

Distance: Slight concern


Irish Oaks runner-up and Prix de l’Opera fourth. Arguably possesses the strongest staying form in the field.

However, this may not be run strongly enough and 1m1f is arguably short of her optimum.

Adjusted Rating: 8/10 p


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Geryon (P) – 7.5/10

Promising

Going: Fine

Distance: Worth exploring

Hood added


Juvenile Group 2 form reads well. Hasn’t quite progressed this year but remains lightly raced and Colin Keane is a notable booking.

Interesting rather than convincing.

Adjusted Rating: 7.5/10 P


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Hazdann (P) – 7/10

Promising

Massive absence (434 days)

Weld often patient with good horses

Market absolutely crucial


Only seen three times. His Leopardstown Group 3 fourth behind Henri Matisse now looks useful form.

Potentially dangerous if fully tuned.

Adjusted Rating: 7/10 P


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Lemsairbat – 6.5/10

Proven

Consistent Listed performer who rarely runs badly. Lack of winning habit remains the issue.

Adjusted Rating: 6.5/10


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Subsonic (p) – 6/10

Progressive

Career best at Gowran recently. Still has plenty to find on ratings.

Adjusted Rating: 6/10 p


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Norwalk Havoc – 5.5/10

Proven

Listed winner but strongest form has come at Leopardstown over shorter trips.

Stable’s first string is clearly Hotazhell.

Adjusted Rating: 5.5/10


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Flushing Meadows – 5/10

Promising but disappointing this year

Stablemate Isaac Newton appears considerably stronger.

Adjusted Rating: 5/10


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Bubble Gum – 4/10

Listed winner last season but current season form leaves her with a mountain to climb.

Adjusted Rating: 4/10


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Summer Is Tomorrow – 3.5/10

Two-year-old form respectable but not enough evidence he belongs in this grade currently.

Adjusted Rating: 3.5/10


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Lady Lilac – 2.5/10

Reliable handicapper but Listed company appears beyond her.

Adjusted Rating: 2.5/10


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Strongest Contenders

Hotazhell

The highest-class horse in the race by some margin. If anywhere near peak fitness, he sets the standard.

Isaac Newton (P)

Potentially the biggest threat. Open to substantial improvement and receives weight from older rivals.

Wemightakedlongway (p)

Solid Group 1 filly whose form entitles her to major respect, though race conditions may not be ideal.


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Main Dangers

Geryon (P)

Hazdann (P)


Both retain upside and could outperform market expectations.


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Interesting Outsiders

Hazdann (P)

Only three career starts and returns after a long absence for Dermot Weld. Market support would be noteworthy.

Geryon (P)

The addition of a hood may unlock improvement.


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Hold-Up / Luck In Running Risks

Wemightakedlongway

Isaac Newton

Subsonic


If the pace is modest they may require gaps at the right time.


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Significant Profile Notes

Hotazhell

Group 1 Futurity Trophy winner

Irish 2000 Guineas third

Irish Champion Stakes fourth


Wemightakedlongway

Irish Oaks runner-up

Prix de l’Opera close fourth


Isaac Newton

Group 1 juvenile placed form

Only six career starts


Hazdann

Lightly raced

Long absence

Potentially much better than current figures



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Hotazhell 32%
Isaac Newton 20%
Wemightakedlongway 15%
Geryon 10%
Hazdann 8%
Lemsairbat 5%
Subsonic 4%
Norwalk Havoc 3%
Flushing Meadows 2%
Bubble Gum 0.5%
Summer Is Tomorrow 0.3%
Lady Lilac 0.2%



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Each-Way Angles (12 runners)

Isaac Newton (P)

Strongest each-way profile among the younger horses. Weight-for-age allowance and scope for improvement.

Geryon (P)

Capable of hitting the frame if returning to his best juvenile level.

Hazdann (P)

Interesting at bigger prices but fitness must be taken on trust.


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Summary

This looks a fairly straightforward race from a class perspective. Hotazhell has already achieved a level that none of these have matched and the drop into Listed company is significant. The main question is readiness after his break.

Isaac Newton looks the most likely improver and receives a valuable weight allowance. Wemightakedlongway brings strong Group 1 form but may find this tactical 1m1f contest less suitable than a more strongly-run race over further.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Hotazhell – Proven Group 1 performer dropping markedly in class.

Each-Way Saver

Isaac Newton (P) – Promising 3yo with Ryan Moore booked, ideal trip and significant scope to improve from his seasonal return.

1st: Hotazhell
2nd: Isaac Newton (P)
3rd: Wemightakedlongway (p)
4th: Geryon (P)

Market watch strongly advised on Hazdann given the 434-day absence and unexposed profile.