1m (1m30y), Good ground, 11 runners, Fillies & Mares, Listed

Race Assessment

Going Suitability

The forecast good ground looks ideal for most of the principals.

La Fogata shaped well on good at Naas and has form on decent ground.

Drop Dead Gorgeous won on soft but her Group 3 placed effort came on good.

Sindria has improved markedly this spring on good/good-yielding surfaces.

Duckadilly is arguably better on good than testing ground.

Fingerpaint has a question to answer after a long absence but her best run came on good.


Field Size Suitability

An 11-runner Listed race should suit runners who can travel and quicken.

La Fogata coped with smaller fields but her running style should adapt.

Drop Dead Gorgeous encountered traffic problems in a larger Group field and could benefit from a cleaner passage.

Yellowstone Lake has raced in sizeable maidens and should handle this setup.


Pace Assessment

There is no obvious confirmed front-running specialist.

Likely pace angles:

Sindria

Duckadilly

Sanctijude


This may develop into a steadily-run tactical mile where positioning becomes important. Horses with a turn of foot rather than relentless stamina may be favoured.

Draw Assessment

Navan’s mile start generally does not create a major draw bias on good ground.

Low draws:

Drop Dead Gorgeous (1)

Sanctijude (2)

Fast Tara (3)


Middle draws:

Duckadilly (4)

Yellowstone Lake (5)

La Fogata (6)


Wide draws:

Fingerpaint (7)

Syzygy (8)

White Sand Beach (9)

Quebec (10)

Sindria (11)


The widest draw may force Sindria to expend energy early if connections seek a prominent position.

Pace/Draw Interaction

Drop Dead Gorgeous has the ideal combination of a low draw and tactical speed.

La Fogata is well berthed to track the pace.

Sindria faces a slightly tougher task from stall 11.



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Strongest Contenders

La Fogata (p)

Profile suggests a progressive filly. Her Naas Listed second over 1m2f on stable debut was a strong seasonal return. She travelled well and stayed on nicely. The drop back to a mile should not inconvenience her and may actually sharpen her finishing effort.

Suitability: Track 8/10, Distance 8.5/10, Going 9/10.

Drop Dead Gorgeous (P)

Possibly the most naturally talented filly in the field. Her Curragh Group 3 third in May rates very well in the context of this race. The subsequent 1m2f disappointment is the concern, but she returns to a mile and Ryan Moore is an obvious positive.

Suitability: Track 8/10, Distance 9/10, Going 8.5/10.

Sindria (p)

Improved significantly this spring, winning a handicap and then a Listed race. Her Group 2 run can be forgiven as she was simply meeting better opposition. Carries a 3lb penalty but remains one of the most solid recent performers.

Suitability: Track 8/10, Distance 8.5/10, Going 9/10.


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Main Dangers

Duckadilly

Already proven in Listed company and arguably drops into a more suitable race after facing stronger opposition. The return to a mile looks ideal.

Suitability: Track 8/10, Distance 9/10, Going 8.5/10.

Fingerpaint (P)

Only three career starts and remains unexposed. Colin Keane rides for Dermot Weld. The 231-day absence is the concern, so market support would be highly significant.

Suitability: Track 8/10, Distance 8/10, Going 9/10.

Yellowstone Lake (P)

Interesting seasonal returner from the Paddy Twomey stable. Juvenile form behind smart fillies reads well. Open to significant improvement at three.

Suitability: Track 8/10, Distance 8.5/10, Going 8.5/10.


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Interesting Outsiders

Quebec

German Pattern-race placed form gives her some chance on peak efforts, but recent Irish runs have been disappointing.

Sanctijude

Progressive handicap/maiden profile but this is a substantial class rise.


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Hold-Up Risks / Needs Luck In Running

Drop Dead Gorgeous – suffered traffic issues previously and can be ridden patiently.

Yellowstone Lake – likely to be produced late after a long break.

Fingerpaint – absence adds uncertainty regarding race sharpness.



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Trainer Notes

Aidan O’Brien has a strong record with fillies stepping into Listed company and saddles two runners.

Joseph O’Brien runs both Sindria and Quebec; Sindria is clearly the stable first string on recent form.

Dermot Weld and Paddy Twomey are trainers whose runners returning from layoffs often warrant close market inspection.



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Runner Ratings (/10)

Horse Rating

Drop Dead Gorgeous (P) 8.8/10
La Fogata (p) 8.7/10
Sindria (p) 8.4/10
Duckadilly 8.1/10
Yellowstone Lake (P) 7.9/10
Fingerpaint (P) 7.8/10
Quebec 5.8/10
Sanctijude 5.5/10
White Sand Beach 4.8/10
Syzygy 4.6/10
Fast Tara 3.8/10



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Drop Dead Gorgeous 3/1
La Fogata 10/3
Sindria 5/1
Duckadilly 7/1
Yellowstone Lake 8/1
Fingerpaint 8/1
Quebec 20/1
Sanctijude 25/1
White Sand Beach 33/1
Syzygy 40/1
Fast Tara 66/1



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Have We Weighted the Race Correctly?

The key factors here are:

1. Class form – more important than usual in a Listed race.


2. Potential improvement from 3yo fillies – particularly important due to the weight-for-age allowance.


3. Recent RPRs – strongly favour La Fogata, Drop Dead Gorgeous and Sindria.


4. Pace – likely modest, making tactical position more important than pure stamina.


5. No significant non-runner concerns apparent from the card provided.



I would place slightly more emphasis on:

The 3yo allowance.

Potential upside rather than established older mares.


That particularly benefits Drop Dead Gorgeous, La Fogata and Yellowstone Lake.


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Summary

This looks a strong Listed race dominated by the younger generation. La Fogata arrives off arguably the best recent piece of form after her Naas Listed second and should be suited by the return to a mile. Drop Dead Gorgeous possesses the highest ceiling in the field if bouncing back from her latest run and has the benefit of a favourable inside draw. Sindria is the most solid older filly after her recent Listed success, while Duckadilly is respected dropping from stronger races.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet: La Fogata (p)
Strong seasonal return, progressive profile, ideal ground, and likely still improving for her new yard.

Saver / Alternative Win Bet: Drop Dead Gorgeous (P)
Most talented filly on her best form and very dangerous back at a mile from stall 1.

Each-Way Angle (11 runners, 3 places): Yellowstone Lake (P)
Unexposed, receives the 3yo allowance, and could take a sizeable step forward on her seasonal return if ready.