Class 4 Handicap Chase | 3m (2m7f180y) | Good ground | 5yo+ | 0-120

Runners: 7 declared (Muskerry Rock NR)

Pace Assessment

With Muskerry Rock now a non-runner, the race lacks an obvious confirmed front-running specialist.

Sir Carnegie has raced prominently and could find himself close to the pace.

Settle Down Jill has shown tactical speed in hunter chases and may be ridden positively.

Ira Hayes tends to sit handy enough.

Inis Oirr, Wasdell Dundalk and Buy Some Time are generally happier tracking the pace.


Perth often rewards horses that can hold a position and jump accurately. A steadily-run race could place extra emphasis on tactical speed rather than outright stamina.

Draw Bias

Not applicable over fences.


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Suitability Analysis

1. Ira Hayes (Rating: 8.5/10) p

Going: Proven on good ground.
Distance: Strong second over 3m at Market Rasen suggests this trip is ideal.
Class: Well treated off 116.
Track: First visit to Perth but profile suggests it should suit.
Trainer: John McConnell operating at a healthy strike-rate.
Jockey: Callum Pritchard claims effectively and knows how to settle stayers.

The strongest recent form in the race. His Market Rasen second produced a 122 RPR and he remains lightly raced over fences. Still open to improvement in this sphere.


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2. Sir Carnegie (Rating: 8/10) p

Going: Effective on good and good to soft.
Distance: Proven at 3m.
Track: Excellent Perth record (1-2-3 over C&D before latest win).
Class: Looks fairly treated despite rise.
Temperament: Genuine and willing.

Won at Hexham yesterday and would be seeking a quick follow-up. If turning out, he arrives in form but the rapid return is the obvious concern. The 7lb penalty is partly offset by his future mark.


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3. Inis Oirr (Rating: 7.5/10)

Going: Likes good ground.
Distance: Ideal.
Track: C&D winner and runner-up here last month.
Class: Well handicapped on old form.

Has looked much happier back at Perth recently. Course form is a major asset and another solid effort is likely.


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4. Settle Down Jill (Rating: 7/10) P

Going: Good ground suits.
Distance: Proven stamina.
Class: Tougher than hunter chases.
Profile: Potentially capable of better under current connections.

Interesting recruit from hunter chase company. The Kelso win was visually impressive but this demands more off a career-high mark. Not impossible that there is further improvement to come.


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5. Buy Some Time (Rating: 6.5/10)

Going: Fine on good.
Distance: Stays well.
Track: Good recent Perth hurdle efforts.

The question is whether he can transfer his current hurdle form back to fences. If he does, he’s capable of making the frame.


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6. Neon Diamond (Rating: 6/10) P

Going: Good ground should help.
Distance: Worth another try at around 3m.
Trainer: Gordon Elliott runners always command respect.

Still relatively unexposed over fences but has not progressed as expected. Needs to find more than recent chase efforts suggest.


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7. Wasdell Dundalk (Rating: 6/10)

Going: Versatile.
Distance: Ideal.
Track: Outstanding Perth specialist (four C&D chase wins).

A dangerous veteran. Last month’s hurdle comeback was poor, but he often improves significantly for a run. Finished second in this race last year after a similar preparation. Not dismissed.


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Factors Given Extra Weight Today

Because this is a small-field Perth staying chase:

1. Course form carries more weight than normal.


2. Recent chase form is more important than hurdle form.


3. Tactical positioning becomes crucial with limited pace.


4. Stamina is less of a concern because all major contenders are proven stayers.


5. Jumping fluency around Perth’s tight circuit is important.



No additional non-runners appear missed beyond the declared withdrawal of Muskerry Rock.


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Strongest Contenders

Ira Hayes (p)

Arrives with the strongest recent handicap chase form and remains open to improvement over fences.

Sir Carnegie (p)

Progressive profile and excellent recent form, though the quick turnaround must be considered.

Inis Oirr

Rock-solid Perth specialist who is running back into form.


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Main Dangers

Settle Down Jill (P) – potentially better than current mark if translating hunter chase form.

Wasdell Dundalk – dangerous course specialist returning from a prep run.



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Interesting Outsiders

Wasdell Dundalk

Four-time C&D chase winner and second in this race twelve months ago.

Buy Some Time

If reproducing his recent hurdle figures over fences he could outrun market expectations.


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Hold-Up / Luck-In-Running Risks

None stand out as extreme hold-up performers in this reduced field. The small field should minimise traffic problems compared with larger handicaps.


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Adjusted Ratings

Horse Rating

Ira Hayes (p) 8.5/10
Sir Carnegie (p) 8/10
Inis Oirr 7.5/10
Settle Down Jill (P) 7/10
Buy Some Time 6.5/10
Neon Diamond (P) 6/10
Wasdell Dundalk 6/10



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Ira Hayes 3/1
Sir Carnegie 10/3
Inis Oirr 9/2
Settle Down Jill 13/2
Buy Some Time 8/1
Wasdell Dundalk 10/1
Neon Diamond 12/1



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Summary

The race revolves around Ira Hayes, whose Market Rasen second is the standout recent piece of form and who still has scope to improve over fences. Sir Carnegie is thriving and boasts excellent Perth credentials, although backing up quickly after Hexham introduces some uncertainty. Inis Oirr looks the solid course specialist capable of another good run.

With only seven runners, there is no each-way angle under standard terms.

Smart Play

Win Bet

Ira Hayes – strongest recent chase form, progressive profile, ideal trip and ground.

Saver

Inis Oirr – proven C&D performer who is back in form and looks the most reliable alternative if the favourite underperforms.