Listed Race (Class 1), 3yo Fillies, 1m1f197y, Soft, 10 runners (Capichera declared non-runner so effectively 9 runners)

Race Assessment

Going

The change to soft ground is a significant factor.

Strong positives:

Rose Ghaiyyath – won on soft and ran well on good to soft in the May Hill.

Ourbren – has form on soft and good to soft.

Sacred Ground – likely to handle ease, though not fully proven on soft.

Della Pace – has run well on good to soft.


Question marks:

Plaid – yet to encounter soft ground.

Venetia – unraced on softer than good.

Lady Dora Mae – not proven on softer than good.

Light Of Paris – untested on soft.



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Pace Analysis

There is no abundance of natural pace.

Likely pace angles:

Venetia has made the running before.

Sacred Ground races prominently.

Light Of Paris was prominent when winning at Ascot.


Potentially run at only a fair tempo despite the testing ground.

That could favour:

Sacred Ground

Venetia

Light Of Paris


But Goodwood’s undulations and soft ground often turn tactical races into stamina tests late on.


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Draw Analysis

With only 9 runners after the Capichera withdrawal, draw is less important than in large-field handicaps.

Stalls 1-4 generally offer efficient ground-saving routes.

Wide draws are not a major negative over this trip.


Most favourably housed:

Rose Ghaiyyath (1)

Ourbren (2)

Lady Dora Mae (3)

Venetia (4)



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Pace/Draw Interaction

Rose Ghaiyyath from stall 1 should obtain an economical trip.

Sacred Ground from stall 6 can sit prominently without expending energy.

Botagoz from stall 8 may again be ridden patiently and will need luck if the pace is steady.

Della Pace from stall 10 risks being dropped in and needing gaps.



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Contenders

1. Rose Ghaiyyath (P)

Suitability Score: 9/10

The race revolves around whether her Guineas run is significantly better than anything else achieved by these rivals.

Her tenth in the 1000 Guineas was much better than the bare placing suggests. She stayed on steadily and was beaten only around six lengths in a Group 1.

Key positives:

Proven on soft.

Bred to improve for 1m2f.

Highest Timeform speed figure in the field.

Highest adjusted level of form alongside Sacred Ground.


Richard Hughes has deliberately lowered sights from Group company and this looks a logical Listed opportunity.

The one to beat.


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2. Sacred Ground (p)

Suitability Score: 8.5/10

Very solid and highly reliable.

Form figures since debut: 1-2-2-2

Latest Newbury second reads particularly well.

Positives:

Proven at 1m2f.

Consistent.

Gosden-Buick combination.

Strong RPR profile.


Negatives:

Has had several chances.

Gives the impression she may set a standard rather than improve past it.


Most likely horse to run her race.


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3. Botagoz (p)

Suitability Score: 8/10

Potentially the biggest improver.

Her York Listed third over 1m caught the eye:

Finished strongly.

Shaped as though 1m2f would suit.

Lightly raced.


Concerns:

May be ridden from off the pace.

Could find herself disadvantaged if the race turns tactical.


Interesting contender.


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4. Light Of Paris (P)

Suitability Score: 7.5/10

The unknown quantity.

Ascot maiden form has already received boosts with subsequent winners behind her.

Positives:

Gosdens.

Sea The Stars pedigree.

Open to major improvement.


Negatives:

Huge leap from maiden company to Listed class.

Soft ground unknown.


One for market support.


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Main Dangers

Plaid (P)

Suitability Score: 7.5/10

The Hamilton demolition was visually impressive.

However:

Handicap company to Listed company is a sizeable jump.

Soft ground completely unknown.


Could easily be good enough, but conditions introduce uncertainty.


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Della Pace (p)

Suitability Score: 6.5/10

Ran better than result suggests in the recent Goodwood Listed race.

Slowly away and stayed on.

Likely scenario:

Held up.

Needs luck.

Minor honours possible.



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Others

Venetia (p)

Suitability Score: 6/10

Progressive handicap filly.

Goodwood second over 1m4f suggests stamina.

Needs another sizeable step forward and must prove effectiveness on soft.


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Ourbren

Suitability Score: 5/10

Soft-ground form is a positive.

However her German Guineas sixth and previous Listed efforts leave her with plenty to find.


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Lady Dora Mae

Suitability Score: 4.5/10

Consistent handicap performer.

Looks vulnerable at Listed level.


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Timeform/Profile Notes

Progressive Types (p)

Sacred Ground

Botagoz

Della Pace

Venetia


Promising Types (P)

Rose Ghaiyyath

Light Of Paris

Plaid


Hold-Up Horses Needing Luck

Botagoz

Della Pace

Ourbren



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Ratings (/10)

Horse Rating

Rose Ghaiyyath (P) 9.0
Sacred Ground (p) 8.5
Botagoz (p) 8.0
Light Of Paris (P) 7.5
Plaid (P) 7.5
Della Pace (p) 6.5
Venetia (p) 6.0
Ourbren 5.0
Lady Dora Mae 4.5



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Rose Ghaiyyath 3/1
Sacred Ground 10/3
Botagoz 9/2
Light Of Paris 13/2
Plaid 7/1
Della Pace 12/1
Venetia 14/1
Ourbren 28/1
Lady Dora Mae 40/1



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Have We Weighted the Race Correctly?

The key factor here is the soft ground.

Many of the less exposed fillies have achieved their best form on good or faster ground.

Therefore I would increase the weighting on:

1. Going suitability.


2. Proven class.


3. Stamina for 1m2f in testing conditions.



Those adjustments favour:

Rose Ghaiyyath

Sacred Ground


And slightly oppose:

Plaid

Light Of Paris

Venetia


Also note Capichera is a non-runner, reducing the field to nine and removing one potential pace influence.


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Summary

Rose Ghaiyyath arrives from much stronger company than these and now gets conditions that should suit significantly better than the Guineas did. Sacred Ground sets a very solid Listed standard and looks the most dependable danger. Botagoz is the interesting improver at the trip, while Light Of Paris remains the dark horse if taking another sizeable step forward.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Rose Ghaiyyath (P)

Strongest proven form, proven on soft ground, likely to improve for 1m2f and ideally drawn.

Saver

Sacred Ground (p)

Rock-solid Listed performer with the best established 1m2f form in the field and very likely to be involved in the finish.

Value Alternative

Botagoz (p)

The one most likely to improve markedly for the extra distance if the race develops into a true stamina test.