2m4f | Handicap Hurdle | Soft | 4yo+ | 11 runners

Race Assessment

Going Suitability

The key factor looks to be the soft ground.

Strong positives:

Stede Bonnet – both hurdle wins came on soft.

Sir Allen – won on heavy on the Flat and handles testing conditions.

Billy Lee Swagger – described as ground versatile and has winning form on yielding/soft ground.

Dreal Deal (NR at present) would also appreciate cut.


Negatives:

Avalo – poor on both previous soft-ground starts.

Simple Things – recent best form came on yielding/good-yielding; soft is a concern.

Rakki handles ease but has yet to show his best this season.


Field Size Suitability

11 runners should suit:

Billy Lee Swagger (won in 16-runner field latest).

Avalo (won from 24-runner field at Punchestown).

Sir Allen (competitive handicap experience).

Stede Bonnet (Martin Pipe experience despite not running his race).


Forecast Pace

Likely honest rather than extreme pace.

Possible pace angles:

Avalo can race prominently.

Billy Lee Swagger was ridden positively when bolting up at Ballinrobe.

Sir Allen and Stede Bonnet are versatile.

Simple Things generally sits handy.


The pace should give every runner a chance and place more emphasis on stamina in the conditions.

Draw Bias

Not applicable (hurdle race).

Pace/Draw Interaction

Not applicable.

Class Suitability

Strongest class credentials:

1. Stede Bonnet


2. Billy Lee Swagger


3. Sir Allen



Stede Bonnet competed in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham and now drops into a much easier contest.

Track Suitability

Roscommon is a fair track that rewards efficient jumping and stamina.

Positives:

Rakki is a previous course winner.

Sequoiaspirit is a Flat winner at Roscommon.

Others have no obvious negatives regarding track configuration.


Distance Suitability

2m4f on soft will ride more like an extended stamina test.

Strong stayers:

Billy Lee Swagger

Avalo

Sir Allen

Sequoiaspirit


Question marks:

Stede Bonnet (most wins around 2m but shaped as though further may suit).

Simple Things stays the trip but conditions may stretch her.


Temperament

No major concerns among leading contenders.

Minor concern:

Sequoiaspirit’s 1-from-28 hurdle record suggests he often finds one too good.


Trainer Suitability

Notable yards:

Gordon Elliott (Stede Bonnet)

Willie Mullins (Rakki)

PJ Rothwell (Billy Lee Swagger)

Andrew Slattery (Sir Allen)


Rothwell’s team is operating well and Billy Lee Swagger arrives in peak form.

Jockey Suitability

Claims are highly significant:

Billy Lee Swagger: Kevin Healy’s 7lb claim effectively neutralises most of the 9lb rise.

Stede Bonnet: James Smith claims 5lb.

Sir Allen: Sam Coen claims 5lb.

Avalo: Ethan O’Sullivan claims 7lb.


Are We Weighing The Race Correctly?

The market and Racing Post verdict focus heavily on Billy Lee Swagger’s recent Ballinrobe demolition. That is justified.

However:

Soft ground raises Stede Bonnet’s chance significantly.

Sir Allen may be underestimated returning to hurdles off a potentially lenient mark.

Avalo’s Punchestown win was excellent, but the weather is a major concern.

Simple Things is progressive but conditions may have turned against her.


No major non-runner concerns apart from Dreal Deal already being declared NR.

For this race, I would place extra emphasis on:

1. Going suitability.


2. Ability to stay a strongly-run 2m4f on soft.


3. Handicap mark relative to peak RPR.




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Runner Ratings

1. Billy Lee Swagger (p)

8.8/10

Progressive handicapper after a dominant Ballinrobe success. Effective at the trip, handles conditions and the 7lb claim offsets much of the rise. Solid benchmark.

2. Sir Allen (p)

8.4/10

Potentially very well treated. Heavy-ground Flat winner this spring and returns from a break. Capable of better than current mark. Strong danger.

3. Stede Bonnet (P)

8.5/10

Promising profile. Two soft-ground hurdle wins before Cheltenham disappointment. Could be much better than his mark if bouncing back.

4. Simple Things (p)

7.6/10

Progressive filly but testing ground tempers enthusiasm. Place claims remain strong.

5. Avalo

7.5/10

Excellent Punchestown winner. Distance ideal. Soft-ground doubts prevent a higher rating.

6. Sequoiaspirit

6.8/10

Capable of hitting the frame but poor hurdles strike-rate remains a concern.

7. Rakki

6.7/10

Course winner from a top stable. Tongue-tie added. Needs to leave recent efforts behind.

8. Eye Of A Tiger

5.5/10

Form has regressed and others arrive in much stronger shape.

9. Lisnagar Fortune

5.0/10

Difficult to assess after stable switch. Market may prove informative.

10. Ollie La Ba Ba

3.8/10

Long absence and generally poor fresh record.

NR Dreal Deal

Not considered.


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Strongest Contenders

Billy Lee Swagger (p)

Arrives in the best current form. Recent RPR of 128 and looked ahead of his mark at Ballinrobe.

Stede Bonnet (P)

Unexposed handicap hurdle debutant type profile. Soft ground a major plus and Elliott often excels with this sort.

Sir Allen (p)

Potentially thrown in if translating Flat resurgence back to hurdles.


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Main Dangers

Avalo

Simple Things

Rakki



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Interesting Outsider

Sequoiaspirit

Handicapped to be competitive and shaped well on the Flat recently. More likely a place prospect than a winner.


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Hold-Up Risk / Needs Luck In Running

Most notable:

Sir Allen

Sequoiaspirit


Neither wants to get shuffled back if the tempo becomes tactical.


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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Billy Lee Swagger 4/1
Stede Bonnet 9/2
Sir Allen 5/1
Simple Things 13/2
Avalo 7/1
Sequoiaspirit 10/1
Rakki 12/1
Eye Of A Tiger 20/1
Lisnagar Fortune 25/1
Ollie La Ba Ba 40/1



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Each-Way Angles (11 runners)

Best Each-Way

Sir Allen

Soft-ground credentials, attractive handicap mark and scope to improve further back over hurdles.

Secondary Each-Way

Sequoiaspirit

Consistent enough to hit the frame if reproducing his recent Flat effort.


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Summary

Billy Lee Swagger is the obvious one after an emphatic Ballinrobe victory and remains well treated thanks to the valuable 7lb claim. Stede Bonnet is the intriguing runner with a potentially much stronger profile than his handicap mark suggests, while Sir Allen’s recent Flat success on heavy ground points to a very competitive hurdle return.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Billy Lee Swagger (8.8/10)

Best combination of current form, trip suitability, ground versatility and handicapping.

Saver / Each-Way Bet

Sir Allen (8.4/10)

Strong soft-ground credentials, attractive mark and likely capable of better than we’ve seen over hurdles so far.