Bet With Tote.ie On Racing & Sports Connacht National Handicap Chase
3m1f24y, handicap chase, 5yo+, soft, 16 runners

Stamina, jumping rhythm and soft-ground effectiveness are the key filters. Roscommon’s staying chases often suit horses who can hold a position and keep galloping; hold-up types may need luck in a big field. No draw angle applies.

Non-runner check from the card: Boston Rover, Dorking Cock, Smallcraftwarning and Will Do are marked NR/reserve-related, so they are not treated as active players.

Pace and race shape

There are several who like to race handily or have done their best work when able to keep close tabs: Rocky’s Howya, Pride Of Place, Goody Four Shoes, Bartlemy Boy and possibly Rocky’s Diamond. That should make this a proper stamina test rather than a crawl. The soft ground increases the chance of late collapses from those with stamina or going doubts.

Hold-up/luck-in-running risks include Ambitious Fellow, Where’s My Jet, A Penny A Hundred and Prince Palace, who may need the race to fall apart.

Strongest contenders

Kings Hill – 8.5/10 p
Best form is on soft/heavy and he shaped as though a return to a staying trip could suit when third at Fairyhouse. Progressive enough over fences and conditions look a positive. Strong contender.

Rocky’s Howya – 8/10 p
Excellent recent profile, four wins from last five completed starts, proven heavy-ground handicap chase winner and only 3lb higher than his Limerick win. Reliable and in-form, though this is deeper.

Rocky’s Diamond – 7.5/10 P
Classy hurdler, good novice chase form, including a Listed second. Handicap chase debut off a potentially workable mark, but returns from 137 days and recent hurdle form was below par. Market check essential.

Killaney King – 7/10 P
Still a maiden under Rules but placed repeatedly and ran well in a big-field Fairyhouse handicap chase. First start for Ross O’Sullivan could bring improvement. Solid danger.

Pride Of Place – 7/10
Bolted up in the Killarney National and has the class/stamina for this type of race. Main concern is soft ground, as his revival came on good-yielding.

Main dangers and outsiders

A Penny A Hundred – 6.5/10
Mayo National third shows she can operate in this type of staying chase. Returning from 191 days, but now lower in the weights and from Willie Mullins. Market watch.

Ambitious Fellow – 6.5/10
Runner-up in this race last year off the same mark and shaped better before unseating at Listowel. Still 0-11 over fences, so not bombproof.

Harbour Highway – 6/10 p
In good form but his soft-ground pull-up at Fairyhouse is a major worry. Cheekpieces go on and he is 2lb wrong, though rider’s claim helps.

Bartlemy Boy – 6/10 P
Prolific pointer and recent hunter chase winner. Trip and ground should be fine, but this handicap mark asks a new question.

Born Bright – 5.5/10 p
Progressive last year and shaped well on return over hurdles, but soft ground is a clear negative.

Runner ratings

Rocky’s Howya – 8/10 p
Killaney King – 7/10 P
Rocky’s Diamond – 7.5/10 P
Harbour Highway – 6/10 p
Kings Hill – 8.5/10 p
Ambitious Fellow – 6.5/10
Where’s My Jet – 4.5/10
Pride Of Place – 7/10
Bartlemy Boy – 6/10 P
A Penny A Hundred – 6.5/10
Goody Four Shoes – 5.5/10 p
Born Bright – 5.5/10 p
Tonaghneave Well – 4/10
Hermino AA – 3.5/10
Prince Palace – 3/10
Will Do – NR
Boston Rover – NR
Dorking Cock – NR
Smallcraftwarning – NR

Private tissue estimate

Kings Hill 15%
Rocky’s Howya 14%
Rocky’s Diamond 13%
Killaney King 11%
Pride Of Place 10%
A Penny A Hundred 8%
Ambitious Fellow 7%
Harbour Highway 6%
Bartlemy Boy 5%
Others combined 11%

Smart Play

Win: Kings Hill – soft-ground profile, improving chase form and this trip could unlock more.

Each-way saver: Rocky’s Howya – proven, thriving, handles testing ground and arrives in better form than most.