Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Hurdle
Class 5 Handicap Hurdle | 3m½f (3m60y) | Good ground | 4yo+ | OR 0-100
Runners: 13 | Each-way: 1/5 odds, 4 places

Race shape, pace and suitability

This looks likely to be run at a fair rather than strong pace.

Can U Feel It made the running when producing his best hurdle effort at Fakenham and is the most obvious pace angle. Artiste d’Ainay has point-to-point form from the front and may also be ridden positively. Several of the principals, notably Copper Beach and Danger Nap, are generally ridden with patience.

Southwell’s hurdles track tends to suit horses that stay thoroughly and can hold a position before the home turn. On good ground over 3m, proven stamina is often more important than tactical speed.

Have we weighed the race correctly?

Key factors here:

1. Stamina suitability is more important than usual.


2. Recent form should be trusted as most runners are exposed Class 5 handicappers.


3. Handicap potential is especially relevant for the lightly-raced Danger Nap.


4. No significant draw considerations in hurdle races.


5. No obvious non-runner concerns from the information supplied.




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Runner-by-runner assessment

1. Danger Nap (p) — 8.5/10

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Trip 9/10 | Going 8/10

Excellent handicap debut when second at Warwick over 3m1f. The first-time cheekpieces appeared to help and he remains one of the least exposed horses in the field. Jonjo O’Neill’s team is operating well and a mark of 97 still looks workable.

The strongest profile in the race from a progression perspective.

2. Copper Beach — 8/10

Suitability: Track 8/10 | Trip 9/10 | Going 8/10

Twice runner-up after a lengthy absence and shaped as though a return to 3m would suit. Consistent Timeform and RPR figures, proven stayer and receives a useful 7lb claim.

Main danger.

3. Can U Feel It (P) — 7.5/10

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Trip 8.5/10 | Going 8/10

Still a maiden but produced a career-best effort from the front at Fakenham. The step up to 3m could unlock further improvement. Open to progress after only six hurdle starts.

Interesting if allowed an easy lead.

4. East Eagle — 7/10

Suitability: Track 9/10 | Trip 9/10 | Going 8/10

Course-and-distance winner who scored by 9 lengths at Stratford in April. Recent Hexham runs were slightly disappointing but conditions suit and he has solid staying credentials.

Reliable each-way contender.

5. Artiste d’Ainay (P) — 6.5/10

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Trip 8/10 | Going 8/10

Point winner who shaped reasonably on stable debut at Hexham. James Bowen is a positive booking. Needs improvement but there may be more to come.

6. Indian Sunbird — 6.5/10

Suitability: Track 9/10 | Trip 9/10 | Going 8/10

Dual winner last season including over C&D. Likely fitter for his reappearance but current mark leaves little room for manoeuvre.

Solid but vulnerable to improvers.

7. Iamcelestialgift — 5.5/10

Suitability: Track 7/10 | Trip 7/10 | Going 8/10

Returns from 151 days off after two poor handicap efforts. Has ability but needs to show much more.

Watch the market.

8. Stripe Of Honour — 5.5/10

Suitability: Track 9/10 | Trip 9/10 | Going 8/10

Veteran C&D winner. Well treated on older form but returns from 250 days off aged 13. Hard to see him improving.

9. Fairly Fulling — 5/10

Suitability: Track 6/10 | Trip 6.5/10 | Going 7/10

Won over 2m4f but now tries 3m for the first time under rules. Stamina not guaranteed.

10. Ikigai Star (P) — 4.5/10

Suitability: Track 5/10 | Trip 4/10 | Going 7/10

Pedigree raises stamina concerns and was pulled up last time. New trip is the major question.

11. Getaway Glory — 3.5/10

Suitability: Track 6/10 | Trip 8/10 | Going 7/10

Plenty of headgear changes and poor recent form. Revival required.

12. L’Air du Large (P) — 3/10

Suitability: Track 5/10 | Trip 6/10 | Going 7/10

Lightly raced but little evidence yet that a mark of 80 is lenient. Long absence also a concern.

13. Porridge — 2/10

Suitability: Track 5/10 | Trip 6/10 | Going 7/10

0-14 over hurdles and recent handicap form leaves her with a mountain to climb.


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Strongest contenders

Danger Nap (p)

Best recent piece of form

Unexposed stayer

Handicap debut suggested further improvement


Copper Beach

Proven stamina

Two strong comeback runs

Conditions ideal


Can U Feel It (P)

Potential pace angle

Longer trip likely to suit

Open to improvement


East Eagle

Proven at track and trip

Solid each-way profile



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Interesting outsiders

Artiste d’Ainay (P)

Point winner with scope to improve for new connections and James Bowen booked.

Indian Sunbird

Course winner who could outrun double-figure odds if building on his reappearance.


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Hold-up horses needing luck

Copper Beach is generally ridden patiently and may require gaps at the right time if the pace is only moderate.

Danger Nap is not dependent on leading and should get a stalking trip.


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Private tissue

Horse Tissue

Danger Nap 4/1
Copper Beach 9/2
Can U Feel It 11/2
East Eagle 8/1
Indian Sunbird 10/1
Artiste d’Ainay 10/1
Iamcelestialgift 14/1
Stripe Of Honour 16/1
Fairly Fulling 16/1
Ikigai Star 20/1
Getaway Glory 25/1
L’Air du Large 33/1
Porridge 66/1



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Summary

This revolves around the unexposed Danger Nap, whose Warwick handicap debut stands out as the strongest recent form in the field. The return to a staying trip should also suit Copper Beach, who has run two excellent races since returning from a long break. Can U Feel It is the likely pace influence and remains capable of progressing over this longer distance.

Smart Play

1st Choice: Danger Nap (p)
Most likely winner. Progressive profile, strong handicap debut, and stamina already proven.

2nd Choice: Copper Beach
Consistent, proven stayer and looks set to run another big race.

Each-way saver (4 places available)

East Eagle
Course-and-distance credentials and likely to give another honest account at rewarding odds.