2m1f157y, 4yo+, 0-100 handicap hurdle, yielding ground, 16 runners, showers.

Pace should be honest enough: Avandra made the running/was handy at Tramore, Timurshah travelled strongly at Clonmel, while several others are staying types dropping back, so they may need a test. No draw angle applies over hurdles. Main concern: confirm reserves/non-runners, because Timurshah is first reserve and changes the race if getting in.

Preview

Timurshah is the key horse. He was transformed on stable debut at Clonmel last Friday, winning easily, and a 7lb penalty may not stop him if taking his chance. He is the clear form horse on recent evidence. Quick return is a positive if he is sound and the market remains solid.

Cholo looks reliable in this grade. His Wexford third gives him an edge over Avandra on that line, and he has shaped well since returning from a break. Solid contender.

Gforcejenny is the progressive angle. Her Down Royal fifth on handicap debut was respectable, she is lightly raced over hurdles and should improve. Strong shortlist material.

Avandra ran a career-best second at Tramore, racing prominently. She is exposed, but arrives in form and can be involved again.

Soldier Saint has recent improvement in his profile, but the drop back in trip is a worry. Annarubyrose has C&D maiden form and recent placed/solid efforts, though her better recent runs were over further.

Interesting outsiders: Mount Ferns if bouncing back from a poor reappearance; Theanniversary Man if excusing the Tramore pull-up; Glin Road Boy only if getting in, as handicap debut for Charles Byrnes after a yard switch demands a market check.

Layoff watch: Hurricane Honey, Saint Peregrine, Dark Berkshire and Coole Vision all return from 90+ days off. Market support or a major drift would be significant.

Runner ratings

Timurshah 8.5/10 P
Gforcejenny 7.5/10 p
Cholo 7/10 p
Avandra 6.5/10
Annarubyrose 6/10
Soldier Saint 6/10 p
Mount Ferns 5.5/10
Theanniversary Man 5/10
Granlahan 5/10 p
Hurricane Honey 4.5/10
Boston Bobby 4.5/10
Moulane West 4/10
Glin Road Boy 4/10 P reserve/market only
Saint Peregrine 3.5/10
He Who Dares 3/10
Grennanstown Lady 2.5/10
Dark Berkshire 2.5/10 reserve
Coole Vision 2/10
Sonny Fella 2/10

Private tissue estimate

Timurshah 24%, Gforcejenny 15%, Cholo 14%, Avandra 11%, Annarubyrose 8%, Soldier Saint 7%, Mount Ferns 6%, Theanniversary Man 5%, Granlahan 4%, others 6% combined.

Smart Play

Top win bet: Timurshah, provided he gets in and shows no weakness after the quick turnaround.

Second bet: Gforcejenny each-way, with 16 runners and 1-5 terms, as the most appealing progressive alternative.