Royal Ascot On Sky Sports Racing Handicap, Class 4, 4yo+, 0-85, 1m3y, good to soft, 11 runners

Yarmouth’s straight mile usually gives most run styles a fair chance, with pace and settling more important than stall number. Draw does not look a decisive angle, though Advancing in stall 1 and Gorgeous Mr George in stall 2 have low-side positions if that part rides well. With Padua likely to go forward and several who can race freely, notably Sprightly Dance and Padua, this could be run at an honest enough pace.

Main contenders

Sprightly Dance is the most interesting profile horse. She has already run well at Yarmouth, won comfortably next time, and now drops back to a mile on handicap debut. The 196-day absence is the obvious market-watch point, but she is lightly raced and could still be well treated. Promising type: P.

Cavolo Nero is solid on ratings, has proven 1m form and handles turf, but blinkers need to sharpen him after a slightly flat Haydock run. He is reliable rather than obviously ahead of his mark.

Mythical Guest has strong back-form, including soft-ground efforts and Yarmouth form, but his comeback run was poor. He is a danger if bouncing back but not one to trust blindly.

Padua has ability and may improve for gelding, but the key issue is temperament. If he races too freely again, the mile could stretch his finishing effort.

Interesting outsiders

Gorgeous Mr George is the track specialist, with three Yarmouth wins and a C&D second last year. He is 10lb higher than for his C&D win and needs to revive, but conditions are fine.

Where’s Freddy has C&D placed form, including with cut, and his best RPR/TS figures make him interesting. He needs to step up from his reappearance.

Percival is hard to weigh up on UK/stable debut, down in trip with a hood. Heavy-ground French winner, so ease is fine, but the market should guide.

Runner marks

Horse Mark Comment

Sprightly Dance P 8.5/10 Lightly raced, Yarmouth debut promise, shorter trip may help her settle.
Cavolo Nero 7.5/10 Solid form/RPR, proven mile winner, blinkers could help.
Mythical Guest 7/10 Back-form strong, handles ease, but must forgive comeback.
Padua p 6.5/10 Talented, gelded, but free-going temperament is the risk.
Gorgeous Mr George 6.5/10 Strong track angle, but current mark and recent form temper enthusiasm.
Where’s Freddy 6/10 C&D placed, capable on figures, needs revival.
Renewal P 5.5/10 Unexposed enough, but Thirsk return was very poor.
Carron 5/10 AW profile stronger than turf; needs to prove himself on this surface.
Percival P 5/10 Unknown quantity; hood, trip drop and stable debut make him a market watch.
Bella Perla 4.5/10 AW wins read well, but turf form is a concern.
Advancing 4/10 AW wins, below best on turf and soft-ground doubt.


Private tissue estimate

Sprightly Dance 24%, Cavolo Nero 16%, Mythical Guest 12%, Padua 11%, Gorgeous Mr George 9%, Where’s Freddy 8%, Renewal 6%, Percival 5%, Carron 4%, Bella Perla 3%, Advancing 2%.

Smart play

Win bet: Sprightly Dance — the best blend of promise, track experience and potential improvement, provided the market does not drift badly after 196 days off.

Each-way saver: Cavolo Nero — proven, consistent and solid on adjusted ratings in an 11-runner race.