2m1f, Good to Yielding, 3yo+ Handicap, 16 runners

A staying handicap with a mixture of exposed handicappers, dual-purpose performers and a few lightly-raced improvers. At this trip around Limerick, stamina is more important than tactical speed and races can often develop into tests of staying power if the pace is honest.

Pace Assessment

There is no obvious confirmed front-running specialist over this trip, although Good Onya Mate was ridden positively when second at Gowran and could be prominent again. Our Lucky Lady travelled handily when winning at Down Royal and should be well positioned. Several hold-up types are present, including Nod Of Approval, Miss Australie and Quiz Test.

Overall, the pace looks fair rather than strong, which slightly favours runners able to secure a position before the straight.

Draw Assessment

Over 2m1f at Limerick, draw bias is generally less significant than over shorter distances, with plenty of time to find position. Low numbers hold a slight advantage if able to secure early track position, but stamina and race shape are much more important than stall location.


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Suitability Analysis

1. Nod Of Approval (P)

Going: Suited by good to yielding.
Field size: Handles smaller fields but should cope with this.
Pace: Hold-up style means he needs a clean passage.
Draw: Fine from stall 10.
Class: Looks capable of winning from this mark.
Track: No obvious concerns.
Distance: Major positive. Bred to improve for this trip.
Temperament: Slightly slow away at Cork.
Trainer/Jockey: Harrington and Foley strong combination.

The strongest piece of recent form in the race. Cork second has been well advertised and his pedigree screams stamina.

Rating: 8.8/10 (P)


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2. Our Lucky Lady

Going: Proven.
Field size: Fine.
Pace: Versatile.
Draw: Wide enough in 14 but not a major issue.
Class: Recent winner.
Track: No concerns.
Distance: Proven at 2m.
Temperament: Hood worked well last time.
Trainer: Fahey yard in excellent form.

Won decisively at Down Royal and beat a horse who won next time. The handicapper’s 12lb rise asks a serious question but she arrives in peak form.

Rating: 8.4/10


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3. Good Onya Mate (p)

Going: Suitable.
Field size: Fine.
Pace: Can race prominently.
Draw: Good in stall 5.
Class: Competitive from current mark.
Distance: Unproven beyond 1m6f but shaped as if it will suit.
Temperament: Still looked green.

One of the more interesting improvers. Strong second at Gowran and remains lightly raced.

Rating: 8.0/10 (p)


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4. Tatum

Going: Ideal.
Field size: Fine.
Pace: Usually races efficiently.
Draw: Middle draw fine.
Class: Proven handicapper.
Distance: Strong positive.
Track: No issue.

Last run over 1m2f was clearly inadequate. Return to a staying trip makes her dangerous, especially with Colin Keane booked.

Rating: 7.9/10


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5. Lauderdale King (P)

Going: Handles ease.
Field size: Fine.
Pace: Should be staying on late.
Draw: Wide in 16 but manageable over this trip.
Distance: Major unknown but shaped as though it will suit.

Lightly-raced profile and interesting handicap debut third. One of the more likely improvers.

Rating: 7.7/10 (P)


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6. Miss Australie

Recent Roscommon winner. Stays and handles conditions but now needs another step forward from a higher mark.

Rating: 7.3/10


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7. Quiz Test (p)

Reliable staying handicap form last season. More exposed than some but has each-way credentials.

Rating: 7.1/10 (p)


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8. Autumn Twist

Capable dual-purpose performer but has stamina to prove beyond this distance on the Flat.

Rating: 6.8/10


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9. Bynx

Well handicapped on some old form and nearly won over this trip last autumn. Interesting outsider.

Rating: 6.6/10


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10. Ellaat

Course winner and arrives fit from hurdling. Hard to dismiss entirely.

Rating: 6.4/10


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11. Pass The Buck (P)

Still unexposed but effectively 3lb wrong and needs major improvement for this trip.

Rating: 6.3/10 (P)


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12. Mr Rango

Consistent enough but stamina remains a question.

Rating: 6.0/10


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13. Riyami

AW specialist. Turf record remains a concern.

Rating: 5.8/10


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14. Loyal Touch

Well treated on old British form but little encouragement since joining current yard.

Rating: 5.5/10


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15. Almenfee

Sliding mark but no signs of revival.

Rating: 4.8/10


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16. Sioux Grit

Long absence, wrong at the weights and difficult to recommend.

Rating: 2.0/10


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Strongest Contenders

Nod Of Approval (P)

Best recent form, bred for this trip and still open to significant improvement over staying distances.

Our Lucky Lady

Arrives after a convincing win and has already proven herself at the trip.

Good Onya Mate (p)

One of the least exposed runners and shaped like a stayer in the making.

Tatum

Well-treated if returning to last season’s level and the Keane booking catches the eye.


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Main Dangers

Lauderdale King (P)

Miss Australie

Quiz Test (p)



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Interesting Outsiders

Bynx

Stays strongly and is on a workable mark.

Ellaat

Course winner with recent fitness assured.


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Hold-Up Risk / Luck In Running

The following may require gaps at the right time:

Nod Of Approval

Miss Australie

Quiz Test

Lauderdale King



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Have We Weighted the Race Correctly?

A few points worth noting:

1. This is primarily a stamina test, so I would increase the weighting given to proven or likely stayers.


2. Nod Of Approval’s pedigree becomes especially relevant stepping beyond 1m4f.


3. Our Lucky Lady’s 12lb rise is significant and should not be ignored despite the impressive win.


4. Good Onya Mate and Lauderdale King have the profiles of horses who may improve more than their ratings suggest.


5. No obvious non-runner concerns from the card supplied.




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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Nod Of Approval 4/1
Our Lucky Lady 9/2
Good Onya Mate 13/2
Tatum 7/1
Lauderdale King 8/1
Miss Australie 10/1
Quiz Test 12/1
Autumn Twist 16/1
Bynx 20/1
Ellaat 22/1
Pass The Buck 25/1
Mr Rango 28/1
Riyami 33/1
Loyal Touch 40/1
Almenfee 66/1
Sioux Grit 100/1



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Summary

The race revolves around whether Nod Of Approval can translate his highly encouraging Cork second into victory now tackling a trip that should suit even better. The form looks solid, the pedigree strongly suggests further improvement and he remains one of the least exposed runners in the field.

Our Lucky Lady is respected after a decisive staying success and is the obvious benchmark, although the 12lb rise makes life tougher. Good Onya Mate and Tatum appeal as the principal alternatives, while Lauderdale King is an intriguing improver.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Nod Of Approval (P)

Each-Way Saver

Good Onya Mate (p)

With 16 runners and 1/5 odds 1-5 places available, Good Onya Mate appeals as the best each-way angle among the progressive types.