7f Straight Course | 4yo+ | 0-90 Handicap | 16 runners
Going: Good to Soft (rain around)

Race Assessment

This looks a strong Class 3 handicap containing several progressive 4yos alongside a few well-treated older horses with back-class.

Pace Angle

Likely pace influences include:

Ata Rangi

Consecrated

Brian

Warm Spell


Several others race handily, but there are no obvious confirmed front-running burn-up types. The pace looks likely to be honest rather than strong, which can favour horses travelling prominently rather than extreme hold-up performers.

Draw Angle

On Newbury’s straight 7f, draw bias is usually less pronounced than at many tracks, but under rain-softened conditions it can sometimes pay to be near the strongest pace.

Low: Storm Free (1), Spangled Mac (2), I’m Workin On It (3)

Middle: Consecrated (7), Morte Point (8), Tanmawwy (9), City Of Kings (10)

High: Brian (11), Warm Spell (12), Forty Years On (13), I Still Have Faith (14), Best Rate (15), Chalk Mountain (16)


The pace appears fairly evenly distributed, so I would not over-emphasise draw.


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Suitability Assessment

Forty Years On (13) – 9/10 (P)

Going: Proven soft-ground winner.

Field size: Won in a 12-runner Ascot handicap.

Pace setup: Should get a suitable tow into race.

Draw: Fine.

Class: Looks capable of better than OR 88.

Track: Newbury should suit.

Distance: Strong 7f profile.

Temperament: Professional so far.

Trainer/Jockey: George Scott and Hector Crouch in excellent form.

Returns after 263 days but profile suggests considerable upside.


The strongest progressive profile in the race.


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Storm Free (1) – 7.5/10 (p)

Lightly raced.

Leicester win worked out well.

First-time headgear.

Big concern is completely unproven on softening ground.

Well beaten in Victoria Cup but not disgraced beforehand.


Interesting improver but ground is a question.


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I Still Have Faith (14) – 7.5/10

Consistent performer.

Versatile regarding ground.

Often finds trouble in running.

Hold-up style creates luck-in-running risks.


Likely to run his race again.


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Ata Rangi (5) – 8/10 (p)

Progressive profile.

Won reappearance at Haydock.

Has handled softer conditions without excelling on them.

Still open to improvement.


Respected.


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Nostrum (6) – 8.5/10

Class horse of the race.

Former Group performer.

Encouraging second at Sandown.

Proven on soft ground.

Appleby appears to be reviving him.


Major danger if reproducing old ability.


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Consecrated (7) – 7/10

C&D winner.

Back from Listed company.

Massive drop in trip from recent starts.

Haggas and Marquand demand respect.


Interesting but not straightforward.


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Brian (11) – 8/10

One of the more interesting runners.

Excellent C&D soft-ground second off 95.

Now 90.

Return to slower ground could spark revival.


Potentially overlooked.


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Spangled Mac (2) – 6.5/10

Good C&D record.

Well handicapped.

Recent form weak.

Better each-way than win proposition.



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Chalk Mountain (16) – 7/10

Runner-up in this race last year.

Arrives fit after Kempton win.

Slow ground remains a concern.



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Morte Point (8) – 5.5/10

Course winner.

Wind operation.

Current form poor.


Needs dramatic turnaround.


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Best Rate (15) – 6.5/10

Consistent AW performer.

Fairly treated.

Turf and softer conditions still not fully proven.



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I’m Workin On It (3) – 7/10 (p)

Progressive AW handicapper.

4 wins from last 9.

First proper opportunity to prove turf effectiveness.


Market support would be noteworthy.


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Warm Spell (12) – 4.5/10

Well handicapped on older form.

Recent runs poor.

Ground concerns.



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Tanmawwy (9) – 3/10

Dangerous mark.

Veteran.

Needs huge step forward from reappearance.



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City Of Kings (10) – 4/10 (P)

Huge ability in 2022.

Absent over three years.

Stable debut.

Watch market carefully.


Interesting but impossible to trust.


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Obsidian Dream (4) – 3.5/10

Effective on soft.

Lightly raced.

Needs major improvement.



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Strongest Contenders

Forty Years On (P)

Progressive, soft-ground winner, potentially ahead of the handicapper after only five starts.

Nostrum

Class act with proven ability at a much higher level and signs of revival.

Ata Rangi (p)

Improving 5yo who won on seasonal return and may not have reached ceiling yet.

Brian

Potentially very well handicapped if slow ground revives him.


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Main Dangers

Storm Free (p)

I Still Have Faith

Consecrated

Chalk Mountain



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Interesting Outsiders

Brian

The key dark horse. His C&D soft-ground run last autumn is among the strongest pieces of course-relevant form on offer.

Consecrated

Could improve considerably back at 7f after trying longer distances.

City Of Kings (P)

Completely speculative but formerly talented and impossible to ignore if heavily backed.


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Hold-Up Risks

These may need luck in a 16-runner straight-course handicap:

Nostrum

I Still Have Faith

Forty Years On



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Adjusted Ratings

Horse Rating

Forty Years On (P) 9.0
Nostrum 8.5
Ata Rangi (p) 8.0
Brian 8.0
Storm Free (p) 7.5
I Still Have Faith 7.5
Consecrated 7.0
Chalk Mountain 7.0
I’m Workin On It (p) 7.0
Spangled Mac 6.5
Best Rate 6.5
Morte Point 5.5
Warm Spell 4.5
City Of Kings (P) 4.0
Obsidian Dream 3.5
Tanmawwy 3.0



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Private Tissue

Horse Tissue

Forty Years On 4/1
Nostrum 11/2
Ata Rangi 13/2
Brian 8/1
Storm Free 8/1
I Still Have Faith 10/1
Consecrated 12/1
Chalk Mountain 14/1
I’m Workin On It 14/1
Spangled Mac 16/1
Best Rate 18/1
Others 25/1+



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Summary

The race revolves around whether Forty Years On has improved again from three to four. Her Ascot soft-ground handicap win has worked out notably well and she remains lightly raced with significant upside.

Nostrum is the biggest threat if Michael Appleby continues to revive him, while Ata Rangi arrives in peak form and still looks progressive.

For each-way purposes, Brian appeals most strongly given his excellent Newbury soft-ground form and reduced handicap mark.

ChatGPT Smart Plays

Win Bet

Forty Years On – strongest combination of proven soft-ground ability, progressive profile and handicap potential.

Each-Way Saver (16 runners, 5 places)

Brian – very attractive handicapping angle returning to his optimum conditions and course setup.